‘Flame’ On Or Flameout?
Juvenile fillies take the spotlight in Jersey, as the Grade I, $500,000 Frickasee Stakes at a mile and a sixteenth for the two-year-old filly crowd hopes to steer a couple of fillies towards the West Coast for the Breeders Bowl at the end of the month. Do they have a chance?
Well, on paper this field doesn’t suggest that this crowd has a lot of heavyweights aiming for the BB race in California in three weeks. Only two fillies in the Top 20 of the division are represented here: seventh-ranked Fourth Seal Opened won a four and a half-furlong Grade III sprint, but was second against colts last out in Italy, while sixteenth-ranked Nantucket Sound also captured a four and a half-furlong Grade III sprint and also ran second last out in a Grade II stakes in New York. But while there are just the two from the list of Top 20 fillies here, there are quite a few fillies whose stocks have increased in value substantially in the last couple of months (something that cannot be said for much anything else further north on the coast, but never mind that). Poison Arrow is 2-for-3 and won a stakes with an 89 speed figure last out. The Ghost Of Ohio has won three in a row, improving her speed figure the closer she gets to a mile. Threatened is a length and a quarter from being unbeaten in five starts, having improved her speed figure following her debut in each of four subsequent outings. Torch The Track is also 4-for-5, and won gate-to-wire going a mile last out.
With raw potential neutralizing the lack of show-stoppers here, in a week with a ton of opportunities for the cream of the 2008 juvenile filly crop, the race comes up very intriguing to create a new star in a division still looking for a sensation. The field:
Dark Queen [Giant’s Causeway(IRE)-Dark Princes, by Empire Maker, trained by super27 for More Evil Than The Evil Empire!] is the only foal to come out of this stakes-winning “dam”, and Dark Princes won at a mile and an eighth and was second in the 2006 Equinics. Added distance will suit her, but her only win came in a maiden race last out, and what’s more, it was in a restricted effort. Those races can be difficult to gauge for a sense of talent against open company, but DelPenn races typically are competitive events with well-bred runners; still, the winning speed figure was only a 75, and in a field where one runner has managed to break the 90-figure barrier, it’s going to take a strong effort to propel her into contention. She has already been tested in facing two stakes winners and two stakes-placed fillies in her five starts, and has hit the board each time out. Plus, her connections know how to keep a talented filly under wraps until they hit the main stage, so she shouldn’t be too underestimated. She’ll be a deep closer, and the race should set up favorably for a strong late run.
Fourth Seal Opened [Devil His Due-No More Lies, by Slew O’ Gold, trained by bhm] has earned her way up to the #7 ranking by virtue of an early-season Grade III win in May, in the four and a half-furlong Arizona Shootout. It took a couple of starts from then to bring her success going a route of ground, winning an Independence Day allowance race. She would hit the board in each of her next two tries going a mile and beyond, each time second, but using different tactics in each. Whether going to the lead in a short field or stalking the pace, she’s shown herself capable routing. She should be up close again here, and her speed figure topped out last time at an 86, which keeps her in contention. There’s some question as to whether she can keep energy in reserve for the stretch run, and though she’s twice stakes-placed and a graded winner, a win could put to rest any lingering doubts about her effectiveness stretching out at this level.
Poison Arrow [Bluegrass Cat x Machiavellian, trained by kevoman5 for Coolk Stables] is 2-for-3, stretching out in each successive start. Her speed figures started out rather lofty, into the low-80s, and showed improvement each time, peaking last time in her stakes win in Missouri that earned her a figure of 89. She’s a middle-moving type, who enjoys sitting off the pace until making a good run with about a half-mile left. The knock on her might be that she’s yet to have been tested by an intimidating field of graded foes, as she’ll be both making a graded debut and facing graded winners for the first time. The pedigree suggests that the distance should be alright, and that grass might be somewhat within her scope, plus the speed figures certainly make her a viable threat amidst the unknown variables here. She looks like a filly with a future, but needs to conquer any nerves in her first graded stakes; look for her to make a sharp move halfway into a fast-paced affair.
Railways [Rail Link-Gators And Bears(IRE), by Giant’s Causeway(IRE), trained by pwong01 for Pwong01 Stables] has a turf pedigree that has translated to dirt as the distances grew longer. She started her career with a maiden win among three fairly lackluster grass races. But upon a surface switch in June, she showed a bit of improvement, by boosting her speed figures into the 80s, becoming stakes-placed at seven furlongs last time out and winning a mile allowance two back. She’s out of a daughter of Grade I turf miler Touch Seattle, so there’s class back in her pedigree, and that may figure down the line in her future abilities. But this is a step up from sprint stakes and allowance company, and though she picked up an 82 winning that allowance at a mile, her best figure came while sprinting, which might be what she’s better suited towards. Her best results have come when she’s sat in mid-pack or stalking the pace early on, so expect her to try and pick up some momentum about a half-mile in, but her hopes seem to be pinned on staying in touch with the lead when the closers hit their stride, which is not quite a known quality thus far in her racing life.
The Ghost Of Ohio [King Tutta x Silver Ghost, trained by boolucas for Legendary Stables] has come on strong in her last three efforts, and she really has an “X” factor about her. Her sire is based in Ohio and was unplaced in three starts, but was hooked up with a sharp and capable pedigree on the bottom, with both Silver Ghost and Cure The Blues solid sources of speed and ability up to a mile. She’s developed well since breaking her maiden in June, capturing a pair of longer sprint stakes in preparation for her first try beyond seven and a half furlongs. Preferring here as well to sit just off the lead before making a move with about a half-mile left, she’s got enough turn of foot to be a solid sprinter. The question, though, is whether she can sustain her momentum running an eighth of a mile farther than previously attempted. Her speed figures are just a notch below the favorites here, even as they’ve improved by 15 points in her win streak to the mid-80s, and she’ll need to continue to get better as she rises in class to try and make a name for herself in this Grade I. She’s definitely got a lot of intrigue as a long sprinter, but there’s an awful lot of things still unknown about her talent that this race might not answer definitively.
Threatened [Elusive Quality-Pedro Capote, by Capote, trained by pedro12 for PEDRO’S RACING EMPIRE] is a few strides and a touch of momentum shy of being unbeaten in five starts. She’s gone from a debut speed figure of 63 to a career best of 86 in winning a seven-furlong stakes last out, but it remains to be seen if she can stretch her tactical speed this far in her graded debut. Her dam was a stakes winner at this distance, but even if her sire managed to get a Derby winner, I’m still not entirely sold on her chances in here going three-sixteenths farther than she’s ever tried. She’s sat in stalking mode in all of her previous outings, which has served her well, and certainly with the continuous improvement since June she’s not one to be taken lightly for her lack of experience at this level or distance. The excellent pedigree she has hints that a mile is within her range, but for a young and developing filly, that extra sixteenth may seem like another half-mile to run when faced with some fast closing kicks. She’s got a lot of potential, but call it a hunch on my part when I suggest that even with contending figures and strong finishes, she might be up against it against some potent rising stars with more to show at the distance to date. Watch her turning back, though.
Torch The Track [Red Ransom-Torch Song, by Woodman, trained by gradetwo for More Evil Than The Evil Empire!] is another filly with a three-race winning streak in this field. She debuted on turf modestly while hitting the board each time and breaking her maiden, but her stock went up on the switch to dirt. She’s the main speed here, I believe, and led wire-to-wire in the slop at Ohio seven weeks ago. Even with a speed figure that was higher winning a seven-furlong allowance than that mile stakes race, she faced a short field in the mud. Her pedigree shows off all the class she needs to live up to: her dam was a Grade III winner on the turf, and her dam’s half-sister is Torch The Flame, a very talented miler I’m running against versus the boys in Utah this weekend—gadzooks! The pedigree suggests turf, but her best has come on dirt to date, and I think there’s still some more improvement to come on her part in here. Getting distance beyond a mile and a sixteenth is up in the air, but here she certainly is capable of performing strongly. As one of the few sources of pure speed here, she might be daring everyone to catch her if they can, and that might be dangerous enough to hang tough against some solid stalkers and closers. I’m not sure other early-speed types can keep up with her enough to wear her out for the cavalry charge late.
Smarty Kat [Smarty Jones-Passthiskatthekey, by Storm Cat, trained by super22 for More Evil Than The Evil Empire!] is, like, the forty-fifth entry from the super family of stables in this race. They usually come loaded for bear, though it must be said Torch The Track seems to loom very large over the others. She’s a well-bred filly with just a maiden win under her belt, and she’s topped out at 82 in the speed figure department. A half-sister to stakes winner Storm’s Flag (the dam of two-time graded winner Kat Call—you’d think they were the Phipps with all the successful progeny of their own stars), she’s more accustomed to sitting in mid-pack than stalking or leading. But even with the 82 last out in a restricted allowance at a mile, and some killer names in her pedigree, she’s like her entry mate Dark Queen, in that she’s doing fairly well for herself thus far, but it feels like the deep end of the pool in here. She’s a Not Ready For Prime Time player, more Laraine Newman than Gilda Radner yet.
Time To Pretend [Distorted Humor-Project Matter, by Deputy Minister, trained by sam812218 for Rvd Stables] has ambition, it must be said, trying a Grade I off of a near-miss in a stakes race in just her second lifetime start. The intriguing part about this seventh foal(!) from Grade I winner on grass Project Matter is that she’s a half-sister to multiple Grade I winner Donner and half-brother to recent Grade II winner Rhymenocerous. There’s some potent class lines in this pedigree, and she showed she could hold her own in the family with a gritty third-place finish last out. Distance hasn’t really been that big of a deal for this family in the past, though there are some limitations as to just how far they can get away with running successfully. The same should be true here, and it’s only a matter of time before this filly blooms, as both her successful graded-stakes capable siblings earned stakes wins of some kind before turning 3. The knock on her, well-connected as she is, is the lack of experience and the presence of a very fast filly in Torch The Track, which may keep this filly’s up-close-and-personal running style from bearing fruit here. The 86 is a very strong number in just her second race, and the news may get better quickly, but I’m less certain today will be her day for the big breakthrough at this level.
Nantucket Sound [Sunriver x Quiet American, trained by chloedawg3 for Right At Home Stables] has a pedigree that doesn’t hit you right off as being blue-blooded until the dam’s dam-sire Storm Bird shows up. But she ran them off their pins in California in May. She sat just off the lead in the four and a half-furlong, Grade III Baby’s First Stakes and took over with enough left in the lane to win by a length. Since then, she’s had some good-to-fair efforts in graded race. She hated the slop in Georgia’s Butterfly Futurity and finished twelfth, but upon returning to dry dirt, she ran a game fourth stalking the lead in the Grade II Dazzling Daisies, and had the lead entering the stretch last out in the Grade I Getaway before running out of steam just shy of the wire. That Getaway earned her a 91, best last-out speed figure here, but whether she can duplicate it depends entirely on whether she can reserve enough of that tactical turn of foot to not wilt like she did five weeks ago. The distance is within her range, though there’s theoretically not much wiggle room beyond that. But the pedigree should give one hope about her heart, because Quite American is a fine dam-sire, and mixing with her freshman sire and the class that is Storm Bird, she may turn out to be a very versatile filly. As for right here in this spot, this field, with a lot of tactical runners and some very fast speed that can carry over a distance, her 91 might not be good enough in her first routing try.
Snappy Storm [Snappy Landing-Splinters, by Olympio, trained by graywolf3 for Wolf’s Den] is the sole filly here to have more working-class roots, having broken her maiden for a $10K tag back in July. But after her first four races found her uninspired on either surface going no further than six furlongs, an allowance race stretching out to a mile boosted her speed figure from a 64 to an 84. Was that a fluke, a sign of things to come, or a major growth spurt created by the confidence boost of a maiden win versus claimers? She didn’t win that mile allowance, but the filly that beat her is stakes-placed, and she set the pace before tiring to second late, so she’s got some speed. Without a stakes try, it’s really hard to imagine her experiencing such a growth spurt again to keep her in the mix, but I like the back end of the pedigree—Olympio is very much underrated as a DS in a bargain-type pedigree, and Storm Cat on the back end is always Storm Cat—and if the last race isn’t just one of those cruel flukes that make you think you have a runner when it was just a big bounce, she may turn out to be a very nice filly who likes long sprints and was just a bit under-prepared for a stakes debut in Grade I company.
Woette’s Fleet [Afleet Alex-Mother Stormy, by Storm Cat, trained by woette4 for The royalstables of Ostend] has a certain advantage no one else here has: she’s run her last two races on a wet track she may not have completely enjoyed, if only because she was close, but not close enough. She made a great deep closing run in Georgia to be fourth in the Grade III Butterfly Futurity, beaten just three lengths, and last time out, in the Grade III Dr. Shut-Yer-Lips in early August, she was again closing ground rapidly, finishing third and beaten just a length for all the money at seven and a half furlongs. The track is fast for this race, it’s an eighth of a mile farther than she’s had to travel before, and the fast pace up front much of the way should lend itself to this running style. She’s out of a stakes-placed maiden, which doesn’t make her an H-rated mare but an F-rated one, and she’s a half-sister to two other stakes winners, so the talent pool does run deep in the family. The speed figures are cause for concern here, because she’s not broken 80 yet, never mind 90. But between the return to a fast track, the two-month layoff and her tendency to close from far back, she is quite possibly sitting on a dynamite race first time back. The pedigree is questionable, I think, for the distance, even if Afleet Alex has won at a mile and a half and Storm Cat has won at a mile and a sixteenth (the 1985 Young America at the Meadowlands, for the trivia buffs, is what I was thinking of), and even in the Sim the jury’s still out on Alex as a distance influence. But there is a ton of upside in wagering on her, and she could be sitting on an excellent effort here at a nice price.
A competitive race without a lot of star quality on its face is a tough one to handicap, but here goes:
My selections:
1. Torch The Track
2. Fourth Seal Opened
3. Woette’s Fleet
4. Time To Pretend
5. Poison Arrow
Good luck to all, and happy racing.