Walnut Tree Stakes
Welcome to the 9th running of the Walnut Tree Stakes, a G2 event for 2 year old fillies. These young ladies will race 1 mile around the fast dirt track for their share in the $200,000 purse.
The stakes record is held by the 2003 winner, Aly Storm, trained by mowar. She ran the mile in 1:35 4/5. Like most winners of this race, she came from behind to take the win. This race has never been won wire to wire and the majority of the winners have gone on to win at least one more graded stakes. Let’s take a look at this year’s up and coming fillies.
PP 1 FINAL PHASE (IRE) (LAWMAN x NIJINSKY II x THEATRICAL (IRE)) bred and trained by grandview (Natrap Stables, 9%) Odds: 5 to 1
Final Phase has a lot going for her. She is the top ranked horse in the field, at number 5. She has never finished out of the money in her 6 career starts and is coming off two wins, including a Grade 1 victory at the Gateway Stakes at the end of August. Her speeds have been increasing in every start except for a small dip when she made the jump in class for her stakes debut. Final Phase is a daughter of Lawman, a first year sire in the sim, and not surprisingly, she is his top offspring. She is also the favorite and has the top jockey for California, F Gossett. Like many in today’s field she is making her first attempt at 8 furlongs. Hard not to like this one.
PP 2 INDIAN LADDER (KY) (THUNDER GULCH x THEATRICAL (IRE) x BOLD RULER) bred and trained by pointblank (Right At Home Stables, 12%) Odds: 10 to 1
Indian Ladder is making her third attempt in graded company here in only her 4th career start. She won her debut with an impressive speed factor of 80 and put up an 81 in her graded debut at the Sabrina Stakes, G3 where she finished 4th. In her last race she faced Final Phase in the Gateway Stakes where she really struggled, finishing 12. Perhaps the step down to a G2 will help Indian Ladder overcome her last race. She is a scratch bred daughter of Thunder Gulch who produces mostly dirt routers, so this should be a good distance for her. Indian Ladder is the first of two entries from Right At Home Stables representing the GR Simsters.
PP 3 INCREDIBLE LAWYER (KY) (LAWYER RON x CRAFTY PROSPECTOR x RAISE A CUP) bred by tg and trained by tg1 (Tg Stables, 17%) Odds: 20 to 1
I saw Incredible Lawyer at her last race, the G3- Buckeye Debutante, where she finished fourth. Incredible Lawyer is the 7th offspring out of game dam Late Raise, who despite only winning once in her career, has produced a stakes winner and two stakes placed horses. Her sire, Lawyer Ron, is in his first year as a sire and already had 59 offspring, two of them stakes winners. Incredible Lawyer has one of the lowest career high speeds in the race (76), but with 2 year olds it isn’t surprising to see big jumps in speed, so she could do that here.
PP 4 CURSE AND DAMN YOU (KY) (FOREST DANGER x DEPUTY MINISTER x ALYDAR) bred by sdmf2 and trained by sdmfstc (Black Label Stables, 17%) Odds: 9 to 1
Curse and Damn You is making her graded debut here. Her very first career race was a stakes race and she finished 3rd, but since then she has been racing in msw races until her last race. She won that allowance race wire to wire in her first try at 8 furlongs. In her 6 career starts she has never finished out of the money. Curse and Damn You is a daughter of third year sire Forest Danger, a relatively inexpensive sire in the sim and being out of game dam Sinner, her name shouldn’t be surprising. We know she likes this distance, so the biggest question is if she can handle the jump in class.
PP 5 GUTSHOT STRAIGHT (JPN) (STRAVINSKY x DANZIG x THE PRUNER) bred and trained by stylez3 (Stylez Syndicate, 12%) Odds: 7 to 1
Out of post position 5 is Gutshot Straight. She is a daughter of Stravinsky out of game dam Straight Belly. Straight Belly only made 2 career starts and didn’t win, but with a sire like Danzig, trainer stylez thought it was worth a shot. In her first two starts Gutshot Straight ran just off the pace and finished 3rd and 1st. Her last time out she tried graded stakes for the first time and stayed well back until late in the race when she made her move and started moving up. She wasn’t able to catch the leaders (she finished 3rd), but maybe with the extra distance in this race the come from behind style will serve her well. That race was also here in California, but she will have a different jockey this time, P Incay, the jockey who beat her here last time.
PP 6 GOLD REASONING (KY) (SEEKING THE GOLD x STORM CAT x NUREYEV) bred and trained by pointblank (Right At Home Stables, 12%) Odds: 6 to 1
Gold Reasoning is the second entry for Right at Home Stables. This scratch bred is the co-second-favorite and has a beautiful pedigree. She is making her graded debut here after breaking her maiden and then winning her first try against winners at 8 furlongs. Each time this filly races she goes just a little bit faster and if that trend continues she could definitely be in the winner’s circle at the end of this race. This race has been won 3 times from PP6.
PP 7 PEG AND ED (KY) (FUSAICHI PEGASUS x A.P. INDY x AFFIRMED) bred and trained by dundey5 (Dundey Acres, 13%) Odds: 16 to 1
Peg and Ed definitely likes this distance. After finishing a disappointing 6th and 9th in her first two tries, trainer dundey tried 8 furlongs. She didn’t win her first try, but she was much improved and finished in the money. She broke her maiden last time out and now is facing some big changes. Not only is she facing winners for the first time, but she is making quite a jump in class here. She also ran her first 4 races in Florida before coming to California. She is the second offspring of game dam Miss Indy, who has already produced a stakes placed horse. The choice of 37th ranked jockey is puzzling.
PP 8 RESPOND TO THIS (KY) (GONE WEST x SEATTLE SLEW x NORTHERN DANCER) bred and trained by sender2 (Deadinthelane Stables, 16%) Odds: 7 to 1
Respond To This is on a three race winning streak and is handling each step up in class with ease. Her trainer sender2 is giving this scratch bred daughter of Gone West plenty of rest between starts and she has already shown she can win at 8 furlongs. Her first race didn’t go well and that could be the reason there are 5 horses in the race with better or equal odds because this one looks like she could be saying “respond to this” as the rest of the field watches her cross the finish line first.
PP 9 SPECIAL UNION (KY) (DIXIE UNION x DUBAI MILLENIUM (GB) x DYNAFORMER) bred and trained by andycapper (Andycapper Stables, 12%) Odds: 11 to 1
Out of post position 9 is Special Union. She started her racing career strong with two wins and a second place finish in the G3-Baby’s First Stakes. She then tried a G1, but didn’t have the same results. She improved a bit in her last time out, an allowance level at 8 furlongs where she finished 4th. She is the 5th offspring of Special K II who has produced graded winners the last three years. I think her best chance here is if many of the horses that have run in either a late runner style or a stalking style try to stay at the front of the pack and wear each other out and then Special Union can finish with her late speed. I do think she will need quite a jump in speed to be in the mix here.
PP 10 DAVIDOFF (KY) (SEEKING THE GOLD x DANZIG x ALYDAR) bred and trained by super16 (More Evil Than The Evil Empire, 16%) Odds: 5 to 1
This daughter of Seeking the Gold is one of the favorites today (along with Final Phase). The only time she won was on an off track and she won’t have that for this race. She has been showing dramatic improvement with each start and has one of the highest “career high” speeds, even though she only has one win on her resume. Her last two races were stakes where she finished 2nd and 3rd. The third place was at 8 furlongs, like today’s race. Davidoff looks to have a very bright future, but I am just not sure that it includes winning this race.
PP 11 PATIENT PERDITA (ENG) (SAKHEE x STORM CAT x SEEKING THE GOLD) bred and trained by epcotlen3 (Epcotlen Stables, 14%) Odds: 6 to 1
Out of post position 11 we have Patient Perdita. In her 6 career starts she has 2 wins, 2 places and 2 shows, never finishing out of the money. Unfortunately the 2 wins were her first two tries and she hasn’t made it across the finish line first since April. She finished ahead of Indian Ladder in her second place finish at the G3-Sabrina Stakes. Today will be her 4th try against graded company and her first try at a mile. She is a daughter of Sakhee, who produces more turf routers, but her game dam is Dat Cat Can Run and she got all of her wins and itm finishes on dirt.
PP 12 FALLINGINLOVEAGAIN (KY) (FUSAICHI PEGASUS x SEATTLE SLEW x RAISE A NATIVE) bred and trained by xbackyardx (Xbackyardx Stables, 18%) Odds: 16 to 1
Last we have Fallinginloveagain, the second daughter of Fusaichi Pegasus in the field. She broke her maiden first time out and won again in her first time against winners, but hasn’t won again since she tried stakes. Her last time out she tried turf, but trainer xbackyardx has moved her back to dirt for this race, her graded debut. Her highest speed factor was on an off track and even that is well below most in the race, so she is going to need a career best to be in the mix here. Fallinginloveagain will have fellow BTBer N Bonus as jockey. Although he is supposed to be at Ascot covering the Palms Outward Stakes, so I am not sure how he is going to manage that.
There are so many horses in the field that have shown a tendency to run just off the pace. I think we will have a tight race with everyone staying pretty close. A few, like Final Phase and Gutshot Straight have shown they can close strong along with Indian Lader and Special Union. That might be the way to win this race. The morning line puts Final Phase and Davidoff as favorites with Patient Perdita and Gold Reasoning just behind. It is hard not to pick Final Phase with the 91 she put up in her G1 victory and her ability to close late, so she is my choice. I think Respond To This and Gutshot Straight will be close behind.
Good luck and happy racing.