QE 2 Challenge – The fillies on the Turf
Welcome to Kenntucky, where today some of the best 3yo fillies come together to crown a winner in the QE 2 Challenge, 13 fillies entered the Grade 1 event, and while most look for their first Grade 1 win, there are some very experienced fillies in the race, so a great mix for the 9 furlong event, which will be run on a firm turf ground. Let’s take a look at the ladies:
#1 THE DARK MARK(IRE) 9/2
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=139372
11 Races – 4 Wins – 365,710$
The 3yo Montjeu filly is the 9/2 favorite with the bookies. The low odds mainly result of her last showing in the Grade 1 Demona Handicap, where she ran a 113 speed, which is the best any filly in this field has run, however it was only good for a 2nd place behind Skullcrusher, who is not entered today. The Dark mark likes to come more from the end of the field, usually not trailing, but sitting behind the midpack early, and then challenging late, which sometimes results in tough losses. She had a great run at 1 mile, with a 4th place in the 1000 Guines this spring, she was then found not to stay the 12f trip, and comes build up through an ALW win over 9f and the great 2nd place run in the Demona. Look for her to repeat her great performance and finish at least in the Top 3.
#2 NATIVE MAMBO(KY) 5/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=140664
16 Races – 6 Wins – 1,126,876$
Next up another low odd shot, the 3yo El prado filly is a Millionaire, and leads the field in winnings. Her Wins this year came in the Restricted Stakes at the Smackdown Festival, and a Grade 3 win over 8f here in Kenntucky in March. It’s her first try over a longer distance than 1 mile, and it has to be seen, how she handles the extra furlong, her last race was a complete flop, as she finished 12th in the Equinics Race early August, and was given 8 weeks off, which should do her very good. Expect Native Mambo to take the lead early, and try to keep it for good. If she can stay 9f, she has to be the top pick, however The Dark mark seems the better off the 2 at the moment.
#3 CTHRAG GORU(KY) 8/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=151873
11 Races – 4 Wins – 68,792$
The 3yo North Light filly is one of the more inexperienced Horses in the field, she attempts a Graded Race fort he first time, and looking at her stakes results, it may be one Stepp to high. She went on a roll when winning 3 ALWs in a row this spring, her start at Stakes races was very sucessful, when 2nd in Arizona in July, but her last outing in a Stakes Race in July saw her only take a 4th place over 9f, despite a lifetime high speed rating of 103. Her running style sees her a liking for stalking the pace, if there is pace, which should be guaranteed today. Looks a nice fit, but would have been better off staying in Stakes competition, so I don’t see her beat the 2 top picks.
#4 SOUTH OF HEAVEN(IRE) 10/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=146978
15 Races – 4 Wins – 461,310$
The 3yo high Chapparal filly comes back from a lifetime high speed rating, running a 104 over 10f in Arizona finishing 2nd in a Stakes Race last time out. This was finally a good performance, after some rough outings during the Summer. She had a great start into the season, highlighted by winning the Grade 1 How are you Gentlemen Cup in March. After that she was tried several times over 12f, and never produced. It has to be seen, if the recent success shows the way up, or if it was just one good race in between. She likes to run within the midpack, so the 13 horse field might make trouble.
#5 MONSUN JR CB(GER) 8/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=89572
13 Races – 7 Wins – 242,656$
The 3yo Monsun filly was on a great 5 race winning streak from April to July, with 3 of those wins coming on off-tracks. She will have trouble finding a cut in the firm turf today. After that winning streak she went to the Equinics but a 9th place finish was not what was expected, in her last race she was at a mile again, and finished 5th with an average 100 speed figure. She may enjoy the extra furlong this time, but has yet to proof she can run speeds in the 105+ area, a nice pick if we had more rain, but her near the lead style may hurt her without rain falling this week.
#6 FEAR ME COMING(KY) 21/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=136820
18 Races – 4 Wins – 95,760$
To make it short, the War Chant filly was 8th in the 1000 Guines, comes off a 3rd place in an ALW race, and her lifetime high mark over 9f is a 89, I hope I said enough to show she is way off the needed pace in todays race.
#7 X MARKS THE SKUNK(JPN) 14/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=85270
8 Races – 4 Wins – 147,908$
Another long shot, however the Symboli Kris S filly has shown a nice progress lately, after winning 3 ALWs in a row from march to may, she found trouble in Stakes company finishing 4th in a Grade 2, followed by a 2nd place in an ALW Race in Dubai. But her real eye catcher was her last race, she won an 8f Stakes Race in New Zealand, and the impressive thing was not only the 104 speed mark, but the ability to close a 7 length gap from 6th place within the last 2 furlongs. She will likely have to reproduce such a feature, with even a higher speed, but anything seems possible here.
#8 SINGLE WHITE PAT(KY) 9/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=134505
16 Races – 3 Wins – 336,620$
The 3yo Gone West filly is another horse coming off a lifetime best mark into this race, after 15 tries she finally cracked the 100 speed mark in her 16th race, with a 103 over 9.5f in a Stakes Race at Newmarket. However that performance was only good for 2nd place. She had a rather average season, with lots of bad runs and her last win was in March winning a 9f Stakes race at California. She seems on a light upswing, with a 2nd place in a Grade 2 in Dubai 2 back, look for her to be on or at the lead early, however, I don’t see her winning a battle for the lead with Native Mambo, which may hurt her chances.
#9 AMATERASU(KY) 10/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=149660
11 Races – 6 Wins – 134,930$
I like the way this 3yo Awesome Again filly has been built for the race, she ran two of her best career races within her last 3 outings, winning Stakes Races at Queensland and Newmarket over trips of 7.5 and 8f, producing a 104 and a 105. If she can transfer those speed marks into this 9f trip she could be a good pick, however she likes to be in the lead, and has not proven to stay 9.5f earlier in her career. It’s a difficult pick, but one that could make a huge upset, if she can perhaps stay longer then Native Mambo, but could also fail like she did in some races, when too far off the pace early.
#10 GUINEAS TOAST(KY) 11/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=163475
5 Races – 3 Wins – 95,560$
The 3yo Kingmambo filly is one with a lot of talk about, her entry in the 1000 Guineas after just 2 races before was talked about a lot, and she confirmed her woner with a nice 100 speed and a 3rd place in the Grade 1 race, afterwards she was entered into the Equinics, finishing only 6th, but at odds of 19.4:1, this still can be seen as a good result, last time out she easily won a 9f ALW race. She still is far off the best horses in her speed numbers, but she matured a lot, and with only 5 races in her, she should still see lots of improvements with every run, would be a risky pick, but her running style to come from the back half of the mid pack may be good for this race.
#11 PAZJAZZ PRAYER(KY) 6/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=150233
13 Races – 4 Wins – 721,942$
The 3yo A.P. Indy filly was the surprise winner of the 9f 3yo filly Equinics Race, however her 103 of that day only looks average in todays field, and she had to find out, that there are better fillies flying around in the Demona Handicap, where she finished 6th. She won a Stakes race and an ALW race earlier this year, and likes to come from the back of the field. It has to be seen, where her run will end today, but I doubt she can overcome the finish of a stormer like The Dark mark, who stole the show already in the Demona.
#12 BODOG BANDIT(KY) 12/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=138974
19 Races – 5 Wins – 276,685$
the last win for the 3yo Unbridled’s Song filly came back in March, when she won a Stakes race over 7.5f, her lifetime high speed came last time out in an ALW race at california, where she finished 2nd with a 102 over 1 mile. To sum it up, she will likely come from back and not make it too far through the field.
#13 FAST ‘N’ LOOSE(IRE) 49/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=90104
11 Races – 3 Wins – 346,685$
If you see the lifetime high of this filly is a 87 back from a 2yo race, when she finished 2nd in the World Cup Juvenile Filly Turf it may say enough. He struggled her whole 3yo season, and was tried a couple of times on dirt in her last races.
To sum it up, I see a race between The Dark Mark and Native Mambo, if they can run at their best, it’s a 2 horse race, if not, it’s wide open, with 4 or 5 horses having good shots at surprises.