Allegories of breeding. A preliminary study

“But I’ll tell you one thing: it wasn’t easy. Mornings, I’d be at the library
while it was still dark outside, straining my eyes over useless newsprint, all
in the interest of some dumb theory I was trying to prove,
even after I’d forgotten what it was. There’d be times I thought I’d hit on
something-
eureka!”
John Ashbery

Do you have ever asked yourself how breeding with freshmen sires in simulated sports is determined, while there’s no race data available at the time the new sires are implanted to the game?

There is an immense time lag between real life and the sim:
As a freshman sire visits his first mares to prove his fertility, our simulated offspring from the same sire accomplishes its 2yo season. At the time, when the first foals are born, the simulated counterparts are going for glory in the 3yo classics, and when those real life foals show up in yearling sales, we can even push the envelope and already breed the next generation, and till the freshman’s progeny hits the track for the first time in 2yo races, we have 5yo horses.

So it’s hard to judge a freshman sires ability in the sim at the beginning of a new year, but it is possible to look back and see how this simulated horses did on the simulated hippodrome and how a sires simulated offspring may have anticipated a successful stallion career in real life.
So I tried to compare how the offspring of this years RL first-crop sires has done in the sim.

Looking at the lists added below, I think billgulch is doing an incredible good job, and we all have to wonder why the big north American breeding industry did not support him accordingly.
Furthermore we all contribute our part by breeding and playing so enthusiastically. And I hope this articles inspires to a breeding here or there, too.

Although I think the lists are mainly speaking for themselves, I want to note at least two things.

The one thing you’ll see in the first list are the questions marks in the first column for three sires from Europe and Australia. This indicates to me the globalisation of the game in comparison to the more regional orientated horseracing in real life. It is not only much easier and less costly for us to travel to the big name stallions with our mares(there’s even the unreal possibility to breed from scratch), but also more common to travel to the big races around the globe with our horses than for the real life horse owner/trainer.

The other thing is the remarkable divergence for the listing of Smarty Jones, it looks like he is a little bit overrated as a Kentucky Derby winner, either by the creator of the game, or by its players. Year for year it seems that we tend to overuse the winner of this particular race and for many of us it is nearly impossible to book him for our mares.
But then, without the coincidence in billgulch’s curriculum vitae that he grow up where Americas greatest race took place and therefore his dedication to horseracing and furthermore his skills in mathematics, we might not have the game at all! So the high ranking and ratings for sires from inside Kentucky are quite understandable, although it looks like the world comes closer as there are more and more players from around the world; just think of the success for the German sire Monsun and Indian sire Marcus Andronicus lately.

Leading first-crop Sires
First column:
Rank according to bloodhorse.com Leading first-crop Sires 2008(2yo)
?=not ranked in the top 150 sire list

2nd column:
Production Based on 2005 Offspring (simulated horses now 5)
Listing Ratings # 1 through 21 first year sires

RL Rank-sim Rank-sire

36- 1 SMARTY JONES

25- 2 PLEASANTLY PERFECT

3- 3 SPEIGHTSTOWN

4- 4 MEDAGLIA D’ORO

64- 5 PERFECT SOUL (IRE)

?- 6 REFUSE TO BEND (IRE)

2- 7 TAPIT

9- 8 PEACE RULES

7- 9 CONGAREE

58- 10 STRONG HOPE

?- 11 BALLINGARRY (IRE)

29- 12 JOHAR

?- 13 RESET (AUS)

34- 14 NEWFOUNDLAND

1- 15 LION HEART

39- 16 TEN MOST WANTED

23- 17 THE CLIFF’S EDGE

10- 18 STROLL

12- 19 BIRDSTONE

5- 20 CANDY RIDE (ARG)

26- 21 SAARLAND

Annotation:
REFUSE TO BEND listed at stallions.com.au/sire_lists.asp for all European(GB, Ireland, France, Italy and Germany only) Rank 6(2008)

BALLINGARRY listed at stallions.com.au/sire_lists.asp for all European(GB, Ireland, France, Italy and Germany only) Rank 41(2008)

RESET listed at stallions.com.au/sire_lists.asp for Australia, NZ, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, Macao, South Asia and Zimbabwe Rank 10
(season August 2007 till July 2008)

THE OPPOSITE LOOK-TOP 20 REAL LIFE

First column:
sim Rank.Production Based on 2005 Offspring (simulated horses now 5) first year sires

2nd column column:
Rank according to bloodhorse.com Leading first-crop Sires 2008(2yo)
(Last Updated: Thursday, September 25, 2008 4:47 AM)

sim Rank-RL Rank-stallion,yob
15- 1 Lion Heart, 2001
7- 2 Tapit, 2001
3- 3 Speightstown, 1998
4- 4 Medaglia d’Oro, 1999
20- 5 Candy Ride (ARG), 1999
77- 6 Chapel Royal, 2001
9- 7 Congaree, 1998
35- 8 Tomahawk, 2000
8- 9 Peace Rules, 2000
18- 10 Stroll, 2000
19- 11 Birdstone, 2001
46- 12 Roar of the Tiger, 1999
42- 13 Friends Lake, 2001
39- 14 Olmodavor, 1999
22- 15 Toccet, 2000
137- 16 Where’s the Ring, 1999
59- 17 Cuvee, 2001
36- 18 Omega Code, 2000
37- 19 Action This Day, 2001
45- 20 Even the Score, 1998