Stirling Form Heads Tight Kentucky Feature

Race 16 on this week’s Kentucky card is The Girls Just Right Stakes. This Grade 3 older mares race is being run for the first time this year. Carrying a purse of $125,000, it is to be contested over the seven and a half furlong trip on the dirt track. A full field of fourteen will face the starter, and the depth of this field is well worthy of a higher ranked, richer race. A nightmare for punters, the favorite, Stirling Form, has been set at 6/1, while those looking to back a roughie face disappointment, as the longest price on the board is just 15/1. While I feel we’ve some chance of sorting out the best chances, there are no runners who can be totally dismissed as winning chances. Further evidence of the depth here can be found in the Divisional Rankings. We’ve drawn five of the top twenty runners in the dirt sprint division, and another four ranked in the top one hundred.

Let’s work through the formguide for this event:

The inside gate is the starting position for Dynafast, who is stepping up to what appears to be a huge challenge, but is doing so on solid and improving form. Her last two runs have seen her finish third and second in ungraded stakes races, very encouraging results as two earlier forays into black type racing last year, were both unimpressive. Restricted to allowance racing for the most part of this year to date, the added maturity has obviously been to her advantage. While it may be ambitious to expect victory in a Graded encounter when she’s yet to take home the trophy in five ungraded starts, if she runs on the way she did last start, and can repeat the time, she could well put in a far better effort than her price would lead us to expect. Dynafast is a four year old daughter of Dynaformer from Xxxtra Fast, herself a Grade 2 winning daughter of Belong To Me / Polar Falcon, and this filly is the second, and more successful of her raced progeny. A winner of four from twenty three, it’s hard to see her making the leap from allowance to Graded winner, but, having said that, her recent times are more than handy, and it’s certainly worth the effort for Kobras3 to make the attempt. The barrier will be of little consequence, as she’ll drop right out early, and will need to match strides with some very well established black type runners over the closing stages.

Gate 2 sees Bombalurina line up for her second attempt against Graded competition. It would be wise to give this lightly raced, up and coming four year old plenty of respect, as she’s steadily making progress through the classes. A veteran of just fourteen runs, her debut was a disaster, but since then she’s never failed to make the podium, running first and second six times each. It’s her last three runs which create the most interest. True, she won the two starts prior, but she ran around very short in small fields. Three starts back she ran third in an ungraded stakes, following it up with a win at the same level, before graduating to Grade 3 competition seven weeks ago in Spain. That second of nine shows that she’s going to make her mark at this higher level. Interestingly, she drops back to sprinting this weekend, following a decent program over slightly longer. This was the trip where she won her maiden, and this race is the first time since then that she’s taken it on again. Bombalurina is a daughter of Black Tie Affair, the first, and most successful of three progeny of Grizabella (Storm Cat / Unbridled), a mare who was twice a stakeswinner and three times Graded placed. Sirivor has placed this filly to optimum advantage throughout her career, she’ll probably settle mid-field or thereabouts, and it won’t be a surprise to see her featuring in the finish. Very good value in the market.

Gate 3 is the starting position for Shaft Seeker, a mare whose recent formline suggests she may struggle against this level of competition. Out of the winner’s circle since February, her last victory came in an ungraded stake, and her eight prior were all at allowance standard. This will be just the second time in her thirty three run career when she’s taken on the Graded competition, while her first, back in April, resulted in a mid-field finish. Some of those she’s taking on this week are heading in the other direction, dropping back to Grade 3 after fighting out a Grade 1 contest at their last outings. It’s just hard to see her turning the tables. On a positive note, at her peak she is capable of running the type of time which is likely to be required here, so Peeps10 will no doubt focus on that, and the fact that she’s run four triple digits and three high 90’s from her last seven. Shaft Seeker is a daughter of Mineshaft from Prospect Dealing (Unfuwain / Mr. Prospector), making her a half sister to the sim’s only Triple Crown winner I Seek U. A member of such a prestigious family, she’s worth a fortune in the breeding barn anyway, so there’s really nothing to be lost by aiming a little high as she possibly nears the end of her racetrack career. With not a great deal of pace in the event, and an ideal draw with closers inside her, she should be able to settle in a prominent spot, but she’ll need plenty to go her way for her to be able to improve that spot when called upon.

From stall 4 will jump Miss Roberts, a most impressive winner over this journey at her most recent outing. Although it was just an allowance event, she stopped the clock in 1.28.4. It’s highly likely that a repeat of that time will be enough to be right in the mix in this. She’d put in a couple of sub-par efforts prior to that rebound, but she’d established her credentials at this level, back on Derby Day in May when she ran second in the G2-Bluegrass Distaff Sprint. Overall, since returning to dirt racing just over a year ago, she’d taken home a check in all ten starts (six wins) before that recent, and hopefully temporary, form slump. A daughter of Fusaichi Pegasus, She’s the fourth of six progeny of the triple stakeswinner Kitty Katz (Storm Cat / Seattle Slew). She’s a full sister to Hattori Hanzo, a Grade 2 winner, and her dam has also produced stakes placed Natural Couture (Lemon Drop Kid). Miss Roberts ticks almost all the boxes for owner / trainer Theoc2. She’s a stakeswinner who can run fast enough to give this a real shake on her day. The only box yet to tick is that Graded victory. She’s picked a tough event in which to try and register it, but with a touch of luck she is some sort of chance to score it here.

Drawn stall 5 is Fulgurant, an experienced five year old mare who, until her last couple of runs, was racing in career best form. She’s lining up for her longest trip in a year and three quarters. In fact, her last thirteen have all been contested over seven furlongs, yielding her four winner’s checks. Despite the fact that her two most recent attempts over this journey have been unsuccessful, she did win an ungraded stake at the seven and a half as a juvenile. From four starts in Graded company, she’s yet to post a win, but has recorded two thirds, the more recent just two starts back when, on Bluegrass Derby Day, she ran third in the G2-Bluegrass Distaff Challenge. Miss Roberts finished second in that event, and there wasn’t a real lot between them. She had a couple of months off after that and hasn’t quite regained top form yet. Fulgurant is a daughter of Green Desert, the third foal of Brianna’s Mambo (Kingmambo / Storm Bird). Mum didn’t live up to her bloodlines on the track, winning two minor races from eighteen, but she’s turned that all around in the breeding shed, with her first four progeny all achieving black type status. As the betting suggests, she’ll need a fair bit to go her way to triumph. Breeder / trainer General will expect her to drop out early before doing her best work over the closing stages. While not easy to give a winning chance, a top run will come as no surprise.

KoKo Taylor lines up in stall 6. Underlining the strength of this field is the fact that the trifecta runners from last month’s G1-Dancer Cap all line up for this Grade 3 test. Unlike the two who finished ahead of her that day, this filly has had a couple of starts in between, and the results of those two do not point to a likelihood of her turning the tables on Doctor Danzig and Song Of The Hawk this week. A talented four year old who thrives on racing, she’s facing the starter for the fortieth time this weekend. At her best she’s in with a genuine chance, as any runner with a recent Grade 1 placing should be. Among her positives are her recent ITM numbers. She’s finished on the podium in seven of her last nine, all in black type company including the Grade 1 effort. On the other side of the ledger, her last four wins have been against ungraded opposition, and her only Graded win came eighteen months ago. She’s gone home without the trophy in nine graded appearances since. A daughter of High Yield, she’s the initial progeny of Barb’s Capote (Capote / Forty Niner), a winner of four from fifty seven, bred and trained by Banditkllr. Koko Taylor is one of a number of entrants capable of featuring if she can run up to her best. She won’t be far away in the run and should be positioned for a solid finish.

Song Of The Hawk, drawn 7, is one of a number of runners dropping in class from what may be the most significant lead up event for this. Currently enduring the longest losing run of her career, the winner of half her twenty two starts has indicated that she’s well on her way back to her peak. And of perhaps greater significance, I’d like to be singing the Song of the Hawk when Hawthorn pulls off a minor miracle and knocks off Geelong in the AFL (Australian Football league) Grand Final on Saturday. But back to this superbly named creature. There’s absolutely nothing lacking except for a small glitch in the form page recently. She’s won three Graded races over this same trip. She’s a Grade 1 winner over half a furlong less. She flew home last start when second in the G1-Dancer Cap and although fourth the start before, was beaten less than a length in extra smart time. She meets the runner who bested her last start, Doctor Danzig, again this week, and perhaps the jockey may look to give her (and the others) slightly less of a head start this time, but I guess that’s her racing style, and it works more often than not. Song Of The Hawk is a four year old daughter of Unbridled’s Song, from Miss Kitty Hawk (Machiavellian / Alydar) and is by far the most successful of the half dozen offspring of the stakes placed dam. Breeder trainer Shiekabner knows she won’t show any interest in the early stages of the race, but that she’ll be flying at the business end. That’s not the sort of race I want my Hawks to run.

Gate 8 is the starting position for Reina Jade, a filly with a very handy strike rate, racing well in recent ungraded races and well and truly ready for a return to the tougher competition. Of minor concern is the fact that this winner of half a dozen ungraded races, has yet to salute in six attempts at higher. But let’s look at some of those ‘failures’. I know we’re going back a bit, but she ran some top races at three, and we must remember that she’s still only four. Third in a G1-Smackdown, third of sixteen in a Grade 2 and fourth of fourteen at Grade 3 all provide evidence that she should be able to handle the promotion. She has put in a couple of shockers against the better brigade, and the fact that she’s won nine from twenty three, but missed half a dozen times at this level, does mean she comes in with a question to answer. A scratchbred daughter of Giant’s Causeway / Danzig / Unbridled, she has absolutely nothing left to prove in the ungraded arena, and could well enhance her broodmare appeal with continued appearances in Graded races. We know Reina Jade can run the sort of time needed, so owner / breeder 2aussie can watch the race in the hope that she finally overcomes the Graded ‘hoodoo’.

Awaiting the starter in stall 9 we see Royal Birkdale, and all she really needs to do is to repeat that most recent run. With four wins from her last five, including two black type wins, and with that last start speed rating of 113, she lines up with both consistency and ability on her side. If she has a question to answer, it may be that she appears not to like the extra half furlong. She’s won eight races. Six of them have been at seven furlongs, while her only two appearances at seven and a half have seen her miss the podium, when well fancied in the betting on both occasions. A four year old daughter of Speightstown, she’s the first foal of Golden Reasoning (Golden Missile / Seattle Slew), a lightly raced winner of one from eleven. Owner / trainer Elranchoti has found the key to this filly over the last five months. She took some time to settle in to her second home, but her recent form has been outstanding. Connections will expect Royal Birkdale to drop right out early. She’ll be taking giant strides down the final running, and if she can overcome that dislike of the extra hundred yards, she’ll be right in the mix at the business end. Her 113 speed rating is the highest last start performance of any runner, and is matched only once on the past performance formguide

Clark County exits from the 10 gate. Winner of the G1-Barbaro Memorial Fund, two starts back at the Equinics, she followed that up last start with a fast finishing Grade 2 effort. Giving away more than seven lengths at one stage, she loomed as the likely winner a furlong out in that Grade 2 event, before her run ended just before the line and she fell short by just a neck. She’s been finishing off her races nicely in recent times, and the extra furlong here looks made to suit, although she has failed to make the podium in either of her two previous tries at this trip. A recent addition to the Graded ranks, she’s had just the two runs at this higher plateau and can boast a perfect ITM record. In fact, it’s only in her last five runs that she’s returned to black type racing, following one unsuccessful attempt fifteen months back. This second foray, with far more maturity, has seen her win two, with two more placings. The Equinics win underscored her class and established her as a genuine chance in this type of event. A scratchbred four year old daughter of Seeking The Gold / Nijinsky / Halo, she’s run healthy triple digits in all seven runs since returning from a program of turf racing. Clark County will drop out early, possibly settling just forward of mid-field. While some of the biggest threats will be giving away huge starts, Simsters3 can expect this filly to be within striking range when the race becomes serious.

Barrier 11 holds Out Of Iraq. The oldest contestant and the only six year old, she’s still racing in the sort of heart which earns plenty of respect here. Of concern is the long time since she’s shown much heart when lining up against Graded opposition. It was back in July last year when she ran third, beaten less than a length in a Grade 2 contest, proving that she is up to this standard. That was her first ever tilt against the elite. However, she’s faced the higher quality races four times since, without reaching the podium. At this stage of her career, that has to be a worry. There’s no doubt that she’s capable of running the sort of time we’ll be looking at this weekend. Back in April, in an ungraded stakes over this trip, she took the prize, stopping the clock in 1.28.0. That’s probably very close to the time we’ll be expecting in this, so a repeat performance would put her among the chances. Out of Iraq is a scratchbred daughter of Forty Niner / Storm Cat / Northern Dancer. Owner / trainer Dokki has guided her to nine victories in her thirty four start career. She has the versatility to settle almost anywhere in the run and while I can’t expect her to beat all of her proven Graded opponents, a forward showing won’t be surprising.

Drawn in gate 12 we find Stirling Form. While her most recent form may perhaps be described as a tad less than Sterling, she hasn’t been shirking the competition, having lined up against Graded competition in twelve of her last thirteen appearances, and taking home the winner’s share in three of those Graded runs, plus the one ungraded stake sandwiched in the middle. She’s another coming into this via the G1-Dancer Cap. She managed just fifth this year, with trifecta runners Doctor Danzig, Song Of The Hawk and Koko Taylor lining up against her here. However, if we go back twelve months, she ran in last year’s renewal of that same event and finished third, just a length from the winner. One of the strong points of this mare is her consistency. Even when unsuccessful she runs runs solid, honest races, as evidenced by her string of nine consecutive triple digit speed ratings, a string which would extend to fifteen, were it not for a pair of 99’s. That consistent string has been enough for the early market to install her as favorite. Stirling Form is a five year old daughter of A.P. Indy, based on Storm Halo (Dynaformer / Storm Bird), a lightly raced winner of two from twelve. Stirling Form is likely to settle just beyond mid-field early, and while breeder / trainer Jrogue2 will be trusting a bit to luck that the eight month losing streak is about to end, connections can be confident of yet another competitive effort.

Gate 13 is the starting position for Doctor Danzig, a talented five year old mare who, in just her last five runs, has graduated from a handy allowance runner, to a Grade 1 winner. Not asked to compete in any level of black type race in her first sixteen runs, she nevertheless put together a handy record, winning four races and generally taking home a share of the spoils. Five starts back, in April this year, she contested her first ungraded stake, finishing second over the journey she faces this week, beaten just over a length with the winner stopping the clock in 1.28.0. We’ll forget her next run, her first Graded attempt, before she won and ran second in two more ungraded stakes. But it’s that most recent run which grabs the attention. In a full field in which she arguably held the least credentials (all other runners being either Graded winners, or Graded placed stakeswinners), she took them on and took home the trophy. Song Of The Hawk, whose previous record was clearly superior, ran second to her in the Dancer Cap, and the pair face off again this week. Doctor Danzig is a daughter of Speightstown, from Doctor J.O. (Danzig / J.O Tobin). The Dam, a dual stakeswinner, now boasts Graded winners from her first two foals with The Teacher (Awesome Again) sharing the barn of trainer / breeder Manon. She’s not likely to be giving the leaders too much start in the run, and, as a last start Grade 1 winner, obviously a repeat effort sees her as a great chance in this lower level contest.

Starting from the outside gate we find Dry Gulch Tavern, a stakeswinner over this trip, and in smart time, back in July. That was the pinnacle in a thirty eight run career which, until then, was conducted at a lower level. A winner of eight races, her bank balance of $177k is probably the most accurate reflection of the level of competition she usually lines up against. Breeder / trainer Simond5 even ran the risk of losing her by giving her a few runs in claimers, albeit with hefty tags attached. A four year old daughter of Gulch, she’s the third, and most successful of five progeny of her dam, Cozzy Up To The Bar (Cozzene / Nijinsky), herself a stakeswinner. In assessing this filly’s chances this weekend, we can really focus on just the one event. Three starts back she covered this trip in 1.28.4. That’s the ballpark we’ll be in again this weekend, so if she can reduce it slightly, she can finish in the mix. With the fact that this is, after an active racing career, her first tilt at Graded racing, I feel it would be prudent to watch her effort with interest. At her absolute best she’s in with some sort of chance, and from her likely settling position mid-field, she’ll be within striking distance. Dry Gulch Tavern is worth consideration for your exotics.

Summary and Selections:

It’s the year of the Hawk! Well, that may be a tad ambitious come Saturday night, but it’s been a long seventeen years and it’s too good an omen for an old Hawks follower to ignore.

Song Of The Hawk to win. The omen is great. The form is better.

Bombalurina for second. She doesn’t run bad races and the price is most enticing. Across the board

Royal Birkdale for third. Current form is the best form.