I’m Lost Handicap

Ontario kicks off the first of three graded stakes on Saturday with the ninth running of the Grade II I’m Lost Handicap for three year-old fillies going a mile and a quarter on the turf.

Previous winners have gone on to impressive racing and breeding careers.  The 2003 winner and stakes record holder, Ice Queen, went on to win five more graded stakes.  The 2005 winner, Dynahigh, has a three year old foal that is undefeated in four starts, and 2004’s winner, True Slew Again, is the mare of the number three rated three year-old in the division. 

Recent winners have shown strong tendencies.  The last three winners, and four of the past six, have won wire to wire, and four of the past five winners won stakes races in their last race before the I’m Lost.

We’ll try to map our way to today’s winner.  Here is a look at the field:

PP 1 VINTAGE SMOKE(KY) (VINDICATION x SMOKE GLACKEN x DIESIS(GB)) bred and trained by acote2 (Pilgrim Stables, 9%) Style: S, Odds: 9-1

She hit a triple digit speed figure in winning a four-filly allowance race last time, and, having exhausted her allowance conditions, she makes this big jump in class.  Her biggest margin of victory and her largest speed figure were earned in her only two starts longer than eight furlongs.  She adds another furlong today, and it looks like she should enjoy the extra distance.  The class issue looms large, though, as her only stakes try was her only bad race on grass.

PP 2 VAANDA(KY) (HENNESSY x ALLEGED x NASHUA) bred and trained by zoshka (Rafa Stables, 15%) Style: E/P, Odds 3-1*

She earned favoritism off her performance two races back, when she finished second against older in a Puerto Rican overnight, earning a speed figure six points higher than any other filly in today’s field.  But to back her, you have to get over the clunker she ran last time in the Grade III Diana.  She was seventh in that one, finishing two and a half lengths behind Inclusive among others.  The excuse, beyond the random flukiness of race-to-race performance, has to be the shorter distance.  It’s not a strong excuse – she’s done well at the distance in the past.  To add to the doubts, she picks up a 3% jockey.  Clearly she can win, but the odds are not attractive.

PP 3 YARDHOUSE(KY) (EMPIRE MAKER x IRISH RIVER(FR) x GRAUSTARK) bred and trained by larsonisp (Larsonee Stables, 14%) Style: S, Odds: 29-1

She won for fun in her debut last time against a field that didn’t appear to contain any future star.  Who knows? Had she faced stronger competition, maybe she would have run much faster.  She certainly faces stronger competition today.  We’ll need to see more conditioning, and faster speeds, before we can recommend her.  Empire Maker’s three-year-old crop has produced two graded wins, both on dirt.

PP 4 INCLUSIVE(KY) (INCLUDE x RAHY x LORD AT WAR(ARG)) bred by turfsurf and trained by rlogan (ONEWORLD Stables, 12%) Style: E, Odds: 7-2

She’s had trouble maintaining her early speed in distances up to eight furlongs, and now she stretches out to ten.  Against all intuition, the stretchout is not a bad idea.  Sometimes the slower pace of a longer race and the lack of a lot of early pressure in this field could give her the courage to last.  Her two graded tries, while not winning, were decent enough to make us believe she can handle the class.  The 5% jockey is not so encouraging though.

PP 5 KUCHIKI(IRE) (HIGH CHAPARRAL (IRE) x AWESOME AGAIN x COZZENE) bred by ace2 and trained by orosto (Ace Stables – Scandinavia Division, 13%) Style: P, Odds: 7-1

She was closing well to finish a decent fifth in the GI Black Gold last time, and she finished right behind Vaanda and right in front of Paula Creamer the race before that.  In a toss-up between those three, the longer odds and a decent jockey makes her the attractive choice.  Like a lot of the field, she doesn’t fit the profile of recent I’m Lost winners: she was out of the money in her last start and she needs to come from off the pace.  Top-notch trainer has her at her best distance today.

PP 6 PELENNOR FIELDS(KY) (ARAGORN (IRE) x GALILEO (IRE) x NIJINSKY II) bred by lasthope1 and trained by stormboot2 (Dixiedotco Racing, 25%) Style: E, Odds: 5-1

Lot’s to like here.  She’s been in the money in 11 of 12 turf starts, and is a perfect 3 for 3 when she gets an early lead on a firm surface.  She unquestionably has the best early speed in a race with a history that favors early runners.  Incredible trainer has managed to secure one of the top two Ontario jocks, despite being the fourth highest ranked filly in the field.  Jockey Renfroe won this race in 2006.  So, what’s the downside?  Well, the one time out of the money came in her last race when she chased an early leader and faded badly.  Also her best races have been longer.  While ten furlongs looks too long for a few in here, it may be too short for Pelennor.

PP 7 WITHER AWAY(AUS) (LONHRO (AUS) x ROYAL ACADEMY x NASHWAN) bred and trained by popsracing (Knightmare Stables, 14%) Style: P, Odds: 20-1

Her last two races have been – What’s the word? Oh yes. – atrocious. She lost by a total of a number-that-hasn’t-been-invented-yet lengths.  But don’t dismiss her just yet.  Those two races were just too long.  She’s back now to a distance she should like much more.  In races between nine and eleven furlongs she has four wins and a third in five starts.  There was a long layoff after her disastrous Oaks de English.  Let’s assume she was injured in that race.  In that case she’s making her second start off the layoff and is eligible to improve.  She gets a decent jockey.  At these odds and at this distance, she can’t be ignored. 

PP 8 RATTYBURG(KY) (JOHANNESBURG x WILD AGAIN x SAINT BALLADO) bred and trained by darnath3 (Darnath Stables, 11%) Style: S, Odds: 7-1

It takes a lot out of a horse to qualify for Triple Crown and Triple Tiara races.  And it takes even more out of them to run in them.  Ratty ran two forgettable races in the Bluegrass Oaks and the Chestnut Stakes.  Then the barn had every reason to lower expectations for a while.  Well, it’s been three and a half months, so it’s time for her to start to regain form.  Johannesburg has been a strong turf sire so the barn moved her to turf last time in the Del Webb Oaks, and she responded with a great effort.  The BTB writer for that race sagely suggested waiting a race or two before jumping on the bandwagon for this one.  She is the most accomplished filly in the field, running on a surface she seems to love.  It might be time to jump aboard.

PP 9 PAULA CREAMER(JPN) (STRAVINSKY x A.P. INDY x FURIOUSLY) bred and trained by tuffguy (Team DOZA Racing Stables, 17%) Style: S, Odds: 7-2

She made a furious closing move to just miss in a restricted GI last time.  Deep closer would love to see a speed duel, hopefully between Inclusive and Pelennor Fields, so she could take advantage of that impressive charge and the top jockey.  All those things may well happen for the filly they call “Pink Panther.”  She’s the last filly entered in the race and her very professional connections always deserve respect.  Her G2 Michigan Sophomore win came against a very strong field, so she’d be no surprise here as she tries her longest distance ever.

Summary.  Recent history of the I’m Lost provide a clear map to identify the winner: look for an early speed horse that won her stakes prep race.  Well, the only two that won their last races were Vintage Smoke and Yardhouse, but neither of those races were stakes.  Six of the past seven winners were among the top three choices in the early morning odds.  Paula Creamer, Vaanda, and Inclusive all look like legitimate shots, but the ones that appeal most to me are: Pelennor Fields / Rattyburg / Wither Away.