Looking For Energy Writen by CVBear
The Grade I, $500,000 Bob Woodward Memorial comes at a time when there is an energy crisis going on. No, not $4 per gallon and offshore drilling, but in Solar Song’s recent troubles. He’s been a stalwart champion for so long, winning all of the important races in the Sim, that when he hits a bumpy patch, it gets noticeable.
I wouldn’t suggest that the two-time defending Horse Of The Year is in trouble. He’s earned the right to call his own shots in the Sim. And since he has won so much for so long, an occasional bumpy patch isn’t unexpected; you can’t keep up the pace of winning the last two Breeders Bowl Classics, plus the CA Classic, the Buckpasser Stakes, the Sand Castle Classic, and the Topicount Special on a varied and lengthy career dossier without earning the right to be, in equine terms, human once in a while. It’s not like he’s being distanced every time out, having hit the board in his first four starts of 2008. And $16 million in the bank is the only response to thinking that the champ is down for the count.
But the last three starts have been underwhelming. He was eleventh in the restricted Equinics last out going two miles, the worst defeat of his career (although at a distance that was more designed as a training tool than a change in his game plan). He was a game fifth in a Smackdown race, and failed to handle the
That should be no easy task for him, even as only three horses to get wins last time out in this field oppose him in the field of twelve. Hoosier Miner won at Equinics last out at a mile, and is hoping to be able to handle a mile and an eighth for the first time in his career. Alyczar won the Grade III Insulin Cap last time, his first graded victory in 35 career trips to the gate, and is in peak form. And The Kid Stu won the CA Classic last time, a race Solar Song won back in 2006, and his connections have him primed to blaze a trail back to
Here’s the dozen:
Non Negative [A.P. Indy-Opcon Only, by Gone West, trained by mook for Keely’s Stables] has the good looks of her trainer, coupled with tenacious closing speed. A recent millionaire, he’s suffered from “thirditis”, a malady that sets in when a Sim horse appears in three high-profile races and runs gamely, yet finishes third: third in the CA Classic behind The Kid Stu, third at Equinics, third at Smackdown. But he has a Grade I win in the New Hampshire Handicap and a Grade III win in the Bertrando, plus speed figures that hang steadily in the 110s and a string of finishes in the money that extends all the way back to January of 2007. He’s a closer in a race with not a great deal of early speed, so he might have to hang a bit closer than usual here. But he can hang tough with this bunch, and he’s one of just three in here who have managed to earn a speed figure as high as 117 in 2008 (though Solar Song hit 118 at one point last summer). Nine furlongs is his best distance, too, with 117, 116 and 114 speed figures in his last three tries at the distance, so if he’s going to make a move at a higher division rank than his current #5, this certainly seems ideal to try—it’s a difficult field, but the way he operates at this distance is a very positive sign.
Crane Mountain [A.P. Indy x Deputy Minister, trained by afc for Afc Stables] is the lone representative of the three-year-old ranks in the field, which is a rather uncommon experience leading up to the Breeders Cup for a sophomore colt; having something like the Northern Derby this weekend changed a few people’s minds (including mine, with one of my colts). He’s still getting his feet wet against tougher competition, with his best graded result thus far coming in the Colorado Sophomore Classic two back, where he earned a 108. Last out he was second in the DelPenn-restricted version of the Travers, which got him his best speed figure of 111 at a mile and a quarter, against a good group of three-year-olds, but this marks his debut against older horses, and experience says this can go either way. Either he rises to the challenge and performs strongly, or his youth and relative inexperience may get the best of him. He’s a good candidate to go out on the lead in here, and might not have much company, but even though the distance suits him, it’s been six months since he last scored on a wire job. The 111 last time out aside, this distance should fit him nicely, yet I think he’s still a bit raw for this crowd.
Valdesking [King Of Kings(IRE)-Valdeslew, by Seattle Slew, trained by valdes for Fernando Empire] earned a 117 this year as well, which is the high-water mark on the year in this field, but his Perfectionist Handicap win was his first graded victory, and all indications are that he prefers the mile to the mile and an eighth. He’s 4-for-12 at a mile, though his results overall at the distance are pretty steady, especially lately. But he’s 0-for-1 at this distance, with that one loss coming in the Grade I Michael-Strike against horses like San Pellegrino and The Kid Stu. This race is on a par with the Michael-Strike, and even if his defeat last out at a mile and a quarter in the Grade I Almost Hopeless is used as a training tool to get him back on track at this level, it still looks like his speed figures and results at shorter races make him a talented miler, and not a major threat in here this time. He’s a closer, but should try and make a run from mid-pack here instead of the back of the field.
Solar Song [Deputy Minister x Nureyev, trained by squirrel4 for The Squirrel Empire]. It sounds like I tore into him with both barrels for his recent efforts, and that might be true. But it’s not particularly unfair, I feel, because he’s accomplished so much already through 48 races, and it’s as it says in the Bible: “To whom much is given, much is expected.” And there’s been much talent from the Sim gene pool given to one horse, in Solar Song, so much so that the last three months, while not a sign of impending doom, are out of character from a reliable older horse we’ve come to root on in admiration. The Peach State Classic in June came and went with a middling seventh-place finish, and his Smackdown race, while a much-improved, late-closing fifth with a 110 speed figure, was still looking like the champ was looking for a new groove for himself. I’m going to toss out that two-mile Equinics race as being just a tonic for his upcoming fall campaign, and I believe that turning back to nine furlongs, a distance he runs well at even if he hasn’t won at it since June 2006, should provide a fine spark for him as the quest for a three-peat gains steam. It’s anticipated he’ll make his usual cavalry charge from well off the lead here, and few horses have been quite as good at it as he. This should be a solid effort and turnaround for the twice-defending Horse Of The Year, and if he returns to his old form here, he might be back on his game come late October.
The Kid Stu [Seeking The Gold x Northern Dancer, trained by lenny9 for THE EVIL EMPIRE – YOU HAVE NO IDEA] might have Solar Song looking back at him in the next gate and thinking that the young turks aren’t going to get him down, particularly one with such raw talent as this one…and then, he might be thinking, “The kid’s good.” Lenny’s Evil Empire is good, too, and when he gets a monster like this, who tore through his allowance conditions completely by winning five of his first six starts, it’s hard not to look at the guy with grudging admiration for being able to do all the right things. He did just that here, taking him through his conditions before taking him into stakes action in February; he won that, but flopped in the Grade I Sand Castle Classic subsequently, proving that the horse still had to earn his stripes, which he did with a sparkling performance in the CA Classic last out (a 117—best last-out number in the field—without being either particularly fast or particularly challenged on the lead in the last six furlongs). Again, he’s likely going to the lead, and when he does, he’s usually a tough out, with a great amount of tactical speed helping him out. There is a flaw, here, in that he’s proven himself more effective at a mile and a quarter than at nine furlongs more recently—he’s won at this distance, but not in a stakes race. That makes him a bit vulnerable in this slot, but it’s an ideal place for him to be winding down the road to the Classic, as stretching out should make him quite potent. Lenny’s got another good’un, but the question is whether he’ll handle a distance shorter than his best.
San Pellegrino [War Chant x Pleasant Colony, trained by super12 for More Evil Than The Evil Empire!] is a veteran who, as good as he is with over $1.8 million in the bank, has seemed often in the last two years as an X factor in the classic division. He’s flown under Solar Song‘s shadow, even though the two of them excel at different things—where Solar Song has an affinity for the classic distances, San Pellegrino prefers the true middle distances, up to about nine furlongs. This puts this race suitably up his alley, and after 40 starts, it would seem he’s managed to turn a corner of his own. In June, he won his first Grade I in the Michael-Strike at nine furlongs, and followed it up with a couple of game performances in the Grade II Abraham Lincoln and DelPenn’s restricted version of the Woodward in his two of his last three efforts (the less said about the middling Equinics performance at a mile, the better). He also captured the Razorback Cap in March, which helped make him maybe the best mile and a sixteenth horse currently achieving at a high level in the Sim. He’s capable of staying that extra sixteenth, to be sure, but this is another stiff field in a Grade I to try and handle with his late run. The last twelve months have found this horse in career form, and he’s certainly in the mix here, but I think this Grade I might be too tough and too long to reproduce the strong results he’s had at a mile and a sixteenth recently.
King Of The Wind [Deputy Minister-Fuamatu Ma’afala, by Fusaichi Pegasus, trained by topicount4 for Topicount Stables] has built his confidence over four years from running blah races at the “Allowance*50* level to winning a Grade I race (and it’s interesting that this field features the winners of the last three CA Classics: Solar Song in ’06, The Kid Stu last month, and King Of The Wind last fall). And it appears that this one remains a strong opponent in this field. He was a decent fourth last out in a quest to repeat in the CA Classic, and in the Farewell To Cryptozot, he grudgingly gave way late after leading into the stretch run. He’s made a habit out of waking up, usually anywhere in regular summer to Indian summer, and lasting into the early part of winter, and that allowed him to gain valuable experience going forward, particularly this year, as he’s woken up earlier. He’s come to life now, and his speed figures are as good as ever for such a veteran. But his best efforts are usually about ten furlongs, and shorter distances than that haven’t produced a win since January 2005 for him. Nevertheless, if someone is going to supply pressure again to The Kid Stu, this one seems most likely to be sitting off the lead and hoping to challenge him in the first half of the race at least.
Mambo Bones [Kingmambo-Dem Bones, by Danehill, trained by jrogue5 for Jrogue Stables] came from well behind the pack to capture the Farewell To Cryptozot two back, but couldn’t sustain the momentum when eighth in the CA Classic last time. Still, nine furlongs is right up his alley, as he prefers these middle distances, with wins in the Grade II Brooke Lynn and the Grade III Queen Of The County last year. He’s one of the stronger deep closers in the field, and is very capable of coming up with a speed figure in the mid-110s every so often. While he’s used to making a strong late run from the rear of most fields, though, somehow the feeling is received that as good as he is at that dimension, that in this field he might not be so potent with that late kick. Even with some good horses in it, the Cryptozot for this year didn’t come up particularly brimming with exceptional talent, and though he does make a habit of facing some hardcore runners (some of whom are skipping this race for other outings), this field on the whole might just have a little too much for him to handle. Still, expect to see him making a solid run in the lane.
Alyczar [Silver Deputy x Alydar, trained by jedi for Galileo Stables] has one of the most successful connections in the Sim guiding his career. He’s won three of his last four, and even if the only graded win of the bunch came last out in the Grade II Insulin Cap, he came from off the pace to earn himself a 114 speed figure, which puts him near the front of the pack here. Plus, he’s 7-for-16 at a mile and an eighth, and what makes these numbers gaudier is the fact he’s only been worse than fifth twice in those sixteen races at the distance. He knows what to do, and how to do it, and there’s nothing more dangerous than a trainer who is so proficient at getting his horse to do the thing it does most consistently, and to keep improving his performances at the same time. That is the position this colt finds himself in at present, but here he runs into some difficulties, as he’s 0-for-1 in Grade I races, and this field, judging just from the number of millionaires in it, is a much better one than he’s faced previously. He’s good enough to run with a Grade I field now, and should sustain momentum in his career going forward, but it might be a rocky road in this spot to expect him to deliver a knockout punch to some of the Sim’s best handicap horses first time out in a Grade I since August of last year. He may need a race to acclimate himself to the high level of competition, but will hang close to the front end and may challenge late for a share of the end result.
Spitfire MK I [Tiznow x Carson City, trained by buffy8 for Winterfell Racing] has a pedigree overall that might on paper be better suited to shorter distances, even with Tiznow winning the BC Classic twice. But he’s proved himself pretty game at distances beyond a mile. He’s graded-placed at both nine and ten furlongs, including a third in last year’s LA Derby, and usually makes a good, late run from the back of the field. Still, even with his credentials at being able to hit the middle distances hard, his five speed figures over 110 this year have all come at a mile or a mile and a sixteenth, and this includes his win in the Grade III Fus Gonner back in April. The game results this spring—fifth in the Grade I Smackdown, fourth in the Grade I Cosmopolitan—don’t quite obscure an 0-for-4 record at nine furlongs, even if that includes losing a Grade III on a head bob last spring. Though he shows up for the big-time races and usually acquits himself respectably from the rear of the field every time, this might be just a bit too long for him to give his best in this slot.
Hoosier Miner [Mineshaft x Woodman, trained by escena for Hoosier Empire] is the lone victor from the Equinics in the field, winning the mile race last out with a speed figure of 111. That’s an extraordinary achievement, but was it a victory portending bigger and better things within the handicap division? Good question, because even though this colt has won four of his last eight races, he was 3-for-11 prior to that, with zero graded wins. He’s 2-for-3 in his last three, including the Equinics win and another stakes victory, a sparkling 116 when winning a listed event in Arizona in 1:33 3/5, sixteen weeks ago. Interestingly, three horses in this field come in on a six-week layoff. One of them was Valdesking, who came out of a poor race in a Delaware Grade I, and the other? Solar Song, who also made his last start in Equinics. Based on his last eight starts, it appears his best running comes at distances shorter than this mile and an eighth, and the recent speed figures seem to bear that out. There’s speed to be had here, but his best running typically comes more from a late run, and from either mid-pack or near the rear is where one should expect to see him challenge for at least a share of the purse.
The selections:
1. The Kid Stu
2. Non Negative
3. Solar Song
4. San Pellegrino
5. Mambo Bones
Good luck to all, and happy racing.