Thou Shalt Not Make It Any Easier On “Minister”

When it comes to Wooden Minister, it’s all about getting the right pace. When it comes to Who Do You Love, it’s all about getting the right pace.

In this case, the two are mutually exclusive – either favored Wooden Minister gets the contested early scramble he needs or close second choice, Who Do You Love, gets loose, takes control early and swells with confidence to the wire.

The Grade II Dover Destroyer, highlighting Nevada’s sixteen race card, projects to cast Wooden Minister as the lone and direct beneficiary of the anticipated pace and running styles of the five obstacles to victory.

For Who Do You Love, a colt that thrives on having it his way on his lead, assigning a role, or anticipating a counter-strategy for the race becomes exceedingly difficult. His ploy is simple, yet easily foiled, and when confronted with more than one rival sharing his philosophy, the Awesome Again colt can be rather effortlessly discouraged.

A seven-time winner of well over a million dollars, including the Grade I Diplomat Way, homebred Who Do You Love has made a career of being a talented stakes horse that teetered on the brink of the elite.

Routinely winning minor stakes and allowances has always been easy enough for the four-year-old, but getting the dream trip on the lead and finishing the job in graded stakes has been a tougher task. He has accumulated two second place finishes and two thirds along with his Diplomat Way win in Grade I races, leaving little argument as to whether or not he belongs among the best. It is the distinct drop-off in consistent success, as in victory, that makes it easy to argue against a steady rate of wins against the best.

Though trainer Lenny Numbers is adamant that his horses are at top form, indisputably superior in his hands than in the hands of any other man or woman, this colt looks to be in here as a ‘guess’, more than as confident placement.

Of course, that seemed to be the case prior to the Grace I CA Handicap last weekend, which was won easily by Lenny Number’s The Kid Stu, in fact moving the Evil Empire one win closer to a career total of 4,000. The Kid Stu, a hit-or-miss graded stakes runner, found his way into an absurdly contentious field of older horses in California’s feature last weekend. Despite an apparent overload of early zip, the least likely survivor of the pace not only outlasted the other speed, but ran away to win convincingly despite appearing at least overmatched, and perhaps a tad off-form to boot.

While The Kid Stu provides something of a meaningful analogy for the chances of Who Do You Love, winning the Dover Destroyer requires something of the latter that he has been unable to accomplish in nearly nine months: running two top races consecutively.

Who Do You Love, despite maintaining a top-ten divisional ranking, has been an utter disappointment for most of 2008. The win in the Diplomat Way, his older-horse debut, seemed a heartwarming omen for the Evil Empire, already boasting several top older horses on several continents.

The season spiraled downward, the Diplomat Way win giving way to a thirteenth place finish in the Grade III Vermont Is 4 For Lovers, followed by a perfectly average third place finish at 6-5 in his turf debut, a restricted allowance.

Twice in the month of May he found himself trying an off-track, twice finding himself far behind the winner. The ‘bad track’ excuse carried little weight when backing up badly to finish eighth in the Grade I Smackdown, run over a perfect track in Florida.

Finally, he got away from turf, bad tracks, and superior competition for his most recent, the Keplar Star Challenge which he dominated from the start, giving some hope that he hadn’t completely fallen apart this year.

Which handicapping principal applies? Does the bettor assess that one strong performance against inferior competition amidst a season of lethargy certainly does not entitle Who Do You Love to serious consideration at a short price? Or does the bettor recognize the move? The trainer’s move with the horse – a high percentage outfit that shocked California with a Grade I upset last week is taking a confident, bold move with a colt that is easy to take a stand against on paper.

It seemed logical to toss The Kid Stu last week and it seems logical to toss Who Do You Love this week, at least for top honors.

Which logically, must make it logical to assume that the colorfully blue, yellow, and purple silks of Pogo Racing’s Wooden Minister will be the one left to unsaddle in the winner’s circle.

The son of Hennessey out of Zulfagar, by Woodman, has been brilliant in his brief career, winning five of sixteen, with twelve top three finishes. After finishing second in his debut start, Wooden Minister won four of his next five, with a second, including a win in the Juan’s Road Special at a mile and a sixteenth.

Facing fifteen rivals in the Grade III Supertoys Raceout Classic, his graded stakes debut, Wooden Minister lagged far behind early, making up a dozen lengths to get beat less than a length, finishing second. Another huge second in the Grade I World Cup Mile behind multiple graded stakes winning earner of over $3.5 million, Tempest, and still the colt was 7-1 six weeks later in the Grade II It’s All Your Fault Stakes.

He didn’t win, but he ran exceptionally well, and two weeks later, he shipped across the continent to make a name for himself, winning the Grade I Sterile Mile. Left in his wake were Otto History (mare with five GI wins, including NH Mile over males, $4.2M), Fly For Buda (Fla Derby, Cal Derby, Middle Jewel winner, 3rd in Bluegrass Derby and 2^nd in New Yorker, $3.8M), Zygote (GI Smackdown winner, multiple graded stakes winner, $1.7M), and Saturday’s rival, Who Do You Love.

The breakthrough performance left the connections giddy for roughly five weeks, at which point Wooden Minister fired a curve ball, mustering only a sixth place finish in the Grade I Delaware Mile. The final time of 1:32.4 set a track record over the new tobacco and asbestos based synthetic surface, perhaps accounting for the finish. It did not, however, explain getting dusted by both Tempest and Who Do You Love, the latter just recovering from a thumping by Wooden Minister, the former finishing nearly eight lengths farther in front of Wooden Minister than he had previously.

Though he spent most of the winter months leading to his four-year-old debut in training at North Florida’s odd course, he finally reappeared in New York to contest the Grade III Winchester. The return try was exactly that, as he tired after a mild middle move and finished far behind. For weeks later, he was back in top form in the I Think I Found The Right Distance at a mile, finishing second, but full of run and with a winning style.

Ironically, after his good effort in the ‘Right Distance’, he ventured beyond the one-mile distance for the first time since winning the Juan’s Road nine months and eight races earlier. Trying a mile and an eighth, he ran respectable third in the Grade II Eviscerator, followed by a fast closing fourth in the Grade I Nixon’s Promise seven weeks later.

His most recent effort leaves quite a bit to be desired, ninth of eighteen, beaten five lengths in the Grade I Make A Wish, part of the Equinics card. History has shown that many of the Equinics races run as if contested in a different dimension, with horses running insanely better or worse than form would have suggested.

Still, the worry lingers that the 2008 season is two-thirds completed and Wooden Minister is still non-winners of the year eligible. His campaign has been relatively brief, just five starts prior to today, so can it be safely assumed that he has yet to flash his best stuff? It may not be a safe assumption, but it is a reasonable assumption, and that alone makes it safe to assume that Wooden Minister will plow over the field en route to victory.

If there is an upset to be had, or perhaps a logical alternative to the second choice, Who Do You Love, as a partner to the favorite in exotic wagers, class-rising Lady Steps looks like the prime candidate.

Out of the Saint Ballado mare Lady Jo Ann, Lady Steps has two older half-brothers, retired nine-year-old Golden Toque and five-year-old Josheba. Golden Toque ran just twenty-one times, winning three, including two Grade III races and earned over $226,000. Josheba is just shy of half-million dollars in earnings, winning ten of thirty-five, including a pair of stakes.

So while Lady Steps has plenty of family support for a case as a major runner, until his most recent start, his role during a twenty-two race career has been little more than a reliable allowance factor.

The son of Footstepsinthesand debuted in an allowance late in his two-year-old season, registering a good second place finish before crushing a field of maidens going a mile in his second start. He closed out his juvenile campaign by trying the Sir Joker Challenge in his first try against winners and fared poorly, finishing nearly a dozen behind in seventh.

A drop to allowance company yielded two uninspiring finishes, prompting a switch to turf. The grass debut was ugly, but he returned to score his first victory over winners next time on turf, albeit in a small, underwhelming field.

Lady Steps spent the next three months of his three-year-old season flip-flopping from one surface to the other, striking gold one time and mud the next. Finally, it was settled in December that he was a main track model, after three dirt allowances produced a win, a second, and a third.

Seemingly having found his path, the 2008 campaign can be described only as solid thus far, but Saturday could be the defining moment of the season. Despite winning just one of his seven starts this season, Lady Steps has run second five times, with a third place finish to boot.

Ordinarily, one may have viewed the litany of runner-up finishes as a ‘best case scenario’. So long as he didn’t win, he remained eligible for a condition at which he had proven a cash cow. For many, that third allowance win is tantamount to its last allowance win – ever.

In this case, Lady Steps took the other route, exiting the long awaited third allowance condition on the Fourth of July this year. Rather than shop interminably for the perfect condition, Cory Knerr of Ace Stables elected to step him up to the plate and see if he could reel off consecutive career efforts in the Kepler Star.

As the race unfolded, his rival on Saturday, Who Do You Love, was able to dictate things early on and simply run away from the field. Lady Steps made the most of a nearly impossible mission once the Evil Empire’s charge had things his way, rallying from well off the pace to finish a clear second.

Can Lady Steps continue his ascent and factor in the outcome on Saturday? It isn’t certain that ascension is required for Lady Steps to factor in the outcome. He is fast enough if he runs his best race. He seems to be getting better if you can trust a small sample. He absolutely loves the distance and has run within mere lengths of one of the race’s premier contenders once already. His running style should give him every chance to get a piece of he is good enough.

Black Label Stables’ Oh Hell Yeah is intriguing to the degree that in a small field, the colt’s generous tote price almost dictates ignoring the obvious, the logical, and give in to pure speculative hoping.

A glance at the Mineshaft colt’s form reveals what appears to be a fairly one-dimensional turf specialist that has been an average allowance horse for most of his career. Back in April, he unloaded with an effort unlike anything he had even hinted at, winning the DelPenn Maker’s Mark Mile, his first stakes win. Although it was a small field, he not only won with ease, but covered the mile in 1:33.4, good for a speed rating of 114.

So despite stretching out to ten furlongs the following month and shipping to Puerto Rico for the Coronado’s Honors, he was bet to post-time 2-1 favorite in the field of seven. He crawled home seventh, beaten more than fourteen, finishing far behind an unaccomplished field, half of which found claiming ranks before their next win.

In deference to the crushing at a longer distance, Oh Hell Yeah returned to a flat mile for the Mellow Redhead and took steady action, going to the gate at just 5-1 despite exiting a trouncing. It didn’t get much better in the Mellow Redhead, sixth, beaten more than twelve. While he earned a speed rating thirteen points better than that registered in his prior start, the ‘improved’ 95 was still nineteen points off his win two back.

An awkward decision to try a mile and three-eighths on the main track led to yet another obliteration, so it seemed odd when he cruised to victory returning to a mile on turf in his most recent, sent off at just 3-1 despite a string of out and out thrashings.

If the point seems lost, worry not, it hasn’t even been made yet.

This colt just ran a very nice race on turf in allowance company. So just how does that translate to a Grade I race on the main track when clearly, Oh Hell Yeah is a turf horse?

It isn’t necessarily clear that this colt is simply a better horse on turf. In fact, what if it is the case that he is much, much better on the main track? He ran a race good enough to win a stakes race by open lengths with a 114 on the turf. What if he actually is just scary better on dirt?

Although buying into this premise involves something of a leap of faith, it isn’t a completely outlandish theory.

Oh Hell Yeah debuted on dirt, going a mile and a sixteenth in June of his three-year-old season. He pressed the pace and actually held the lead briefly past mid-stretch, but was out finished and earned second place. He earned a speed rating of 81 for his first career start.

Three weeks later, his speed figure jumped to 101 as he crushed a field of maidens at a flat mile. Fluke? He backed it up four weeks later by crushing a field of winners, notching a speed rating of 103.

So what went wrong? Why is he in allowance races on turf as a four-year-old?

After this eye-popping start to his career, he was sent to Canandaigua for Upper New York’s DelPenn Travers at a mile and a quarter. The track took on a lot of rain, leaving it muddy for the feature. Whether the company, the surface, or the distance, Oh Hell Yeah did nothing, checking in ninth beaten over seventeen lengths.

He turned back to a mile, dropped back in with allowance rivals and again, he turned in another clunker with yet another shrinking speed rating. Two weeks later, when he could muster only a third place finish against what was essentially a hand-picked field of just five allowance rivals, Oh Hell Yeah officially became a turf horse.

What about those three huge, and I mean, huge races to start his career? The fact that after three amazingly good races on dirt, he ripped off three disappointments, can almost not be held against him at this point. He has shown with his huge win in the DelPenn Maker’s Mark Mile that he is not immune to rebutting career best form with streaks of complete impotence.

His slide after the huge win surely didn’t prevent him from winning in style again on turf, so why would his slide after his first three races prevent him from picking up where he left off at that point. Except, in the meantime, he has aged, grown, matured, and improved. If he is ten lengths faster now than he was a year ago, what kind of numbers might be attainable back on the main track?

Mademoiselle Squirrel takes an ambitious stab at a big pot with the right type of longshot in the right type of race.

Homebred Angels Fall is a pleasant deviation from what has become a prominent trend among graded stakes horses. In a time when nearly all of the prominent divisional stars boast nine wins, two seconds, and a third from thirteen starts with winnings over $885,000, you have a horse like Angels Falls with a chance to get in the way.

The son of Empire Maker spent from October of 2006 until late May of 2007, a span of nine races simply trying to break his maiden. More than half of the time, he wasn’t even part of the trifecta. Finally, after a couple of improved races going beyond a mile, a mile and a sixteenth and a mile and an eighth, Angels Fall found a field of maidens trying ten furlongs that were at his mercy.

As if to reinforce that he hadn’t merely ‘backed’ into a win, that he was improving and benefiting from longer races, he made 1-5 look like a bargain while destroying a muddy-track depleted field of just three opponents in an eleven furlong allowance.

A mediocre fifth in his next start was followed by a string of strong, steadily improving efforts, three straight second place finishes, including starts in the Blazing Bud at ten and a half furlongs and the My Papa at ten furlongs. The former not only marked his stakes debut, but his foray against older rivals, races that not only produced strong finishes, but career best speed ratings of 108 and 110, respectively.

In eleven months since the My Papa, things haven’t changed a whole lot.

Angels Fall has never made a transition to a major stakes force, or even a graded stakes factor. He has yet to win a stakes race, winning only a single allowance since the back to back wins that began with his maiden win. He has twice tried Grade I races at his ideal distance, the ten furlong Movieland Shiny Cup and the ten furlong California Handicap. He finished fourteenth and twelfth, respectively.

His two other graded appearance aren’t scintillating per se, but neither, particularly the third place finish in the Grade III Warsaw Classic, can be used as evidence against him in this race.

This is not a field of Breeder’s Bowl hopefuls using this as a mere ‘prep’ for bigger and better things. The two favorites, borderline standouts, are at best off-form. At least, neither is as close to a cinch in a graded race as they were a year ago. One is winless this year. The other has book ended a season of utter futility with huge wins. Another has been swinging and missing in allowance races most of the year. Yet another has practically been eased in his last four races on dirt.

Angels Fall does not love the one mile distance. Angels Fall is hard to sell as a graded stakes player. His slightly erratic form makes him hard to really back under a lot of circumstances.

For some odd reason, this is not one of the spots that is tough to like his chance for a piece. If there was ever a field of graded stakes horses going a flat mile that this colt was going to make even a mildly frightening late threat at, this is the field.

If he shows up with one of his better efforts, the possible pace meltdown could leave this race ripe for a mile and a quarter model that just got through showing some speed at that distance in his last start.