The Del Webb Oaks

The ninth running of the Grade I Del Webb Oaks is California’s co-feature this week.  This race for three-year-old fillies has a strong history of producing productive older starlets.  Last year’s winner, Culinary Cutie, is currently the number three distaff turf router in the world.

The 2003 winner, Kiki Cotton Candy, will be eligible for open breeding in six weeks, and the A-rated mare figures to get snapped up early.

The most impressive win came in 2002 when Shanrose Baby set the stakes record in 1:47², handing Hall of Famer Storm Dog a rare loss.

This is the first year the race has attracted a full field of 14.  In fact, several last-day entries bumped a filly out of the race.  Half the remaining field will be in familiar company.  Four fillies exit the Taiwan’s Grade II Pioneer Boulevard Cup, and three more raced each other in Alabama’s overnight Cold Minstrel Bonanza. 

In honor of the local Del Webb community, all patrons 55 or better who wear black socks and sandals to the track will receive free admission and a coupon book filled with 5 to 7% discount offers from several local merchants.

Here is a look at the field:

PP 1 DEVIL’S TRIANGLE(IRE) (SADLER’S WELLS x KINGMAMBO x SEATTLE SLEW), bred and trained by afc (AFC Stables, 15%) Odds: 6-1

Rank: 38, Style: P

The short two-week rest since her second in the GII Roberto Clemente should not be an issue.  Two previous Del Webb winners also exited that race.  That was Triangle’s first try in graded company, and she proved she is ready for this level.  A pace battle fell apart in front of her in that race, and she’ll be hoping that happens again.  She’s fit, and this exquisitely bred filly is running the best of her life.

PP 2 GRAND RIDGE(AUS) (ENCOSTA DE LAGO (AUS) x FORTY NINER x STORM CAT), bred by fairhaven2, trained by grrm (Given Stables: Fire and Blood, 23%) Odds: 20-1

Rank: 131, Style: E/P

After a seven week break, Ridge returned as the favorite in the Cold Minstrel.  She didn’t run a step, and her 5 speed figure accounts for the long odds.  Here’s my guess: I think she came up less than sharp, and Given decided to use the Cold Minstrel as a prep race for this race and asked the jockey to give her more a workout than an all out effort.  If that’s not so, the step up in class would make no sense, and Given is one of the most talented trainer around.  If the strategy works, the odds are way more than generous.

PP 3 CALLISTO OF CIRRA(ENG) (DUBAWI (IRE) x TESTA ROSSA (AUS) x UNFUWAIN), bred and trained by bfc (Bfc Stables, 20%) Odds: 9-1

Rank: 115, Style: E/P

Calissto’s been in the money in nine of her ten turf routes.  She hung after getting clear in a four-filly allowance last time and makes her graded debut here.  She has two seconds in her two overnight routes, owns a pair of triple digit figures, and has very strong connections, so we must respect, but she seems more likely for a minor award.  Only in the inaugural Del Webb has a filly gone from an allowance race to victory.

PP 4 SCARLET RED(KY) (DYNAFORMER x MR. PROSPECTOR x BUCKPASSER), bred and trained by bandinni (Right At Home Stables, 12%) Odds: 10-1

Rank: 529, Style: E

After three straight impressive allowance sprint wins from this filly, barn decided to try this large class and distance jump.  She was third in her lone GIII try, and she has five wins and two thirds in her eight grass starts, so the move is not outrageous.  She has improved in every race, and with her sprinting speed, she will be among the early leaders if not the early leader.  The Del Webb has been kind to fillies that are involved early.  Regular Cal jockey Brim abandons her for Grand Ridge.  Red was the last to enter this race, less than two hours before closing, so barn knew exactly what she’s facing.

PP 5 HIGH MOTIONS(IRE) (HIGH CHAPARRAL (IRE) x THEATRICAL(IRE) x IRISH RIVER(FR)), bred and trained by MsTrinity1 (Trinity Stables, 6%), Odds: 6-1

Rank: 8, Style: P/S

Second in the Breeders Bowl Juvenile Filly Turf, this accomplished filly has yet to win a graded stakes.  She’s 10 of 11 in the money in turf routes and had been in the money in all four of her graded tries until her last outing.  Unfortunately for her, the three fillies that finished in front of her in the Pioneer Boulevard last time are all back again today.  Her races have all been well spaced out, and her figures only took an insignificant drop last time, so she is certainly eligible to assert herself against others.  She should get a good trip after falling back early and a well-timed move could do it today.  As the trainer of the highest ranked filly in the race, Trinity presumably had her pick of jockeys.  The selection of a 6% jockey is puzzling.

PP 6 SMILING ANGEL(KY) (KINGMAMBO x CAERLEON x SHARPEN UP(GB)), bred by cream, trained by donut (Toplight Stables, 23%), Odds: 13-1

Rank: 128, Style: P

Lost to a runaway speedster last time in an overnight, maintaining her perfect in-the-money record lifetime and, of course, in turf routes.  She’s one of only three in here that have yet to break the century mark in speed figures, but she’s still lightly raced and has been close.  The class jump and the lower speed figures tag her as one to watch for today, but, if only because Toplight believes in her, she shouldn’t be ignored in exotics.

PP 7 RODEO DRIVE(KY) (BERNARDINI x GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x RED RANSOM), bred and trained by twoofus2 (Twoofus Stables, 15%), Odds: 12-1

Rank: 59, Style: S

She closed from last to second in the Pioneer Boulevard.  The pace scenario in this field is tricky.  The pace does not project to be too fast, but the early runners will have plenty of company.  If the pace breaks down, this filly has the best chance of all to do a last-to-first stunner.  It looks like her connections are trying to find her best distance.  This might be it.

PP 8 HONOR AND OBEY(IRE) (SADLER’S WELLS x STEPHEN GOT EVEN x SEEKING THE GOLD), bred by earthsong, trained by lenny3 (The Evil Empire – Not a Magic Show, 22%), Odds: 10-1

Rank: 452, Style: E/P

I missed how Lenny obtained this filly.  Her previous owners had only tried sprinting, and he stretched her out in his first race with her.  She responded with a second in the Cold Minstrel and the second highest speed figure in the field.  The highest figure, of course, went to the winner, who starts just outside of Honor and Obey today.  The extra sixteenth they run today may be enough to reverse the order.

PP 9 ARA PACIS(FR) (LAYMAN x SADLER’S WELLS x BUCKPASSER), bred and trained by astinator0 (Astins Place, 24%), Odds: 5-1^*

Rank: 57, Style: E/P

Sophomore sire Layman has yet to produce a Sim GW, but today may well be the day.  In her last eight starts, all turf routes, Ara Pacis (Latin for “Altar of Peace”) has six wins and two seconds.  As she is only making her eleventh start, the probability of a bounce off her huge effort last time in the Cold Minstrel is small.  She’s a deserving favorite. This is her first graded start, and sometimes just that fact can trip up a horse.

PP 10 TO THE CHOIR(KY) (PULPIT x STORM CAT x LEMON DROP KID), bred and trained by seppy, (Seppy Stables, 17%), Odds: 9-1

Rank: 22, Style: S

Let’s count the fillies in this race that have won a graded stakes on the turf recently.  Oh. Here she is, and she’s done it twice. As the second highest ranked filly in the race, and with the trainer of the highest ranked filly apparently uninterested in jockey selection, Choir gets the dominant California jockey, the one who won three of the past five Del Webbs.  Why is she not the favorite?  Well, two races ago, she ran poorly as favorite against an average overnight field.  The only reason that might not be forgivable is it was her only race at a distance as long as this.  Can she make 9 furlongs?  Pulpit is preaching to the choir here when she says she can.  Besides, I really like Seppy’s picture with her horse.

PP 11 RATTYBURG(KY) (JOHANNESBURG x WILD AGAIN x SAINT BALLADO), bred and trained by darnath3 (Darnath Stables, 12%), Odds: 21-1

Rank: 138, Style: S

She was a highly rated filly early this year, winning the Grade I California Oaks and finishing a strong second in the lool Stakes.  She was the seventh choice in the Bluegrass Oaks, and then the wheels started falling off.  Seven weeks ago the descent in form led to an awful race in a Smackdown stakes.  Barn hopes the freshening and a change from dirt to turf will get this talented filly back on track.  It says here to wait a couple starts before jumping on her bandwagon.

PP 12 SHOOTING WATER(KY) (A. P. WARRIOR x GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x SADLER’S WELLS), bred and trained by ladyeve2 (Ladyeve2 Stables, 7%), Odds: 28-1

Rank: 732, Style: S

Still eligible for n2x allowance races, Shooter will be facing major class challenges here as she steps up from restricted company and faces a full field of fillies with success in stakes races.  She also faces major challenges on the speed figure front.  Hers are far below the obvious contenders’.  There must be a positive, and here it is: her last win came the last time she went this distance.

PP 13 ABBY’S DREAM(KY) (BERNARDINI x DEPUTY MINISTER x UNBRIDLED), bred and trained by alybobbob (N2racing Stables, 21%), Odds: 12-1

Rank: 157, Style: E

She looked overmatched last time against a very strong overnight field, finishing out of the money for the first time in eight races.  The rise in class appears to be a questionable move, but this is a shrewd veteran trainer, and so it should be given the benefit of the doubt.  Abby runs best on the lead and should get a shot at the early lead against this group.  She’s never won at a distance longer than eight furlongs before and is not in top form, so we’ll look elsewhere.

PP 14 XXX RATED(KY) (UNBRIDLED’S SONG x KINGMAMBO x NORTHERN DANCER), bred by lenny11, trained by lenny14 (The Evil Empire – Not a Magic Show, 21%), Odds: 11-1

Rank: 159. Style: S

It’s possible the two long routes she ran in May and June took enough out of her to account for the couple lengths she lost the Pioneer Boulevard by.  In any event, she did finish ahead of today’s second favorite in that race, and she’s five for five in the money at races between eight and nine furlongs.  She gets a solid jockey, and she’s shown the ability to run different styles depending on the race.  You can’t ignore this one.

Summary.  A glance at the odds indicates three contenders and eleven longshots, but this is a race with several longshots that are very live.  Let’s try to find one.  We’ll go: To the Choir / Honor and Obey / Grand Ridge.