Dancer Cap Up For Grabs

A field of 14 fillies and mares are entered to run on the dirt in the Grade 1 Dancer Cap stakes this weekend. There is no stand out favorite in this 7 furlong race, pretty much putting this race up for grabs. Let’s take a look at the field.

1. Black Ty Tinsel 16-1
Black Ty comes off a strong Smackdown victory winning the 7f race at 22-1 and putting in a speed of 109. Black Ty normally runs just off the lead, usually settling into the third or forth seat, however, in the Smackdown race, she was held back towards the rear of the field and made a late rally to steal the race. Is this going to be a permanent change in her race style? Black Ty hasn’t been consistant in stakes races and drew Williams in the saddle who has won only twice in over 70 starts this year.

2. Barb’s Last Nerve 12-1
Barb is consistant in her speeds, recording speeds of 100 in almost all her races since December. She has won 5 out of 19 starts but….3 of those were on off tracks. Discounting her off-track record, she has won 2 of 13 on dry tracks (and the track is fast for this race). She is able to compete on the dirt, but her forte is on the slop. I’d pass here.

3. Treasure Coast 8-1
Since December, Treasure has posted speeds of 105 and up in all but one race. She has won 12 of 44 career sprint races which shows her talent. However, this 6 year old has only won 2 in the past year and returns to the NY. NY has not been a favorite of hers. She has raced here 7 times, winning once back in 2005 and she hasn’t hit the board since. Her speeds are nice but consider her history at this track before backing.

4. Stirling Form 6-1
Stirling is one of the oddmakers co-favorites in this race. She has won 8 of 16 sprints, hitting the board in 13 of those races. Her speeds have been impressive, surpassing the 100 threshold dating back to last August. Ironically, when she started this streak of speeds, it was in last year’s running of this same race. She finished a strong third missing by a length. She tends to race in the middle of the pack making her push in the final quarter of the race. She looks promising here and show a recent 2nd on this track back in March where she closed hard in the Distaff Breeder’s Bowl Cap making up 6 lengths late.

5. Black Gold Coal 6-1
Black Gold is the other co-favorite in the race, and gets to run next to her foe. Black Gold has also put in a consistant run of 100+ speeds and also ran against Stirling Form in the Distaff Breeder’s Bowl Cap, finishing fifth, making up little ground late. She has won 7 of 12 sprint starts (9 ITM) but draws Pitchard, a rider who has won 2 of 50+ starts. Is this a good thing? Pitchard has ridden her in both of her two races in NY, with a recent second in June (going 8.5F) and the before mentioned 5th in the Distaff. Despite this, she should be considered a threat.

6. Doctor Danzig 8-1
The good Doctor has run only 4 times in stake races with one win and two places. The only time off the board was her only graded race, which resulted in an 8th place finish. Doctor likes to run in mid-pack and steadily gallops her way to close ground. She’s coming off a nice 2nd going 7.5f in a charted speed of 110. I believe she will put in a nice race here, but may not have enough room to make it first to the wire. She seems to do a little better at 7.5f, but should be able to take home some of the purse money.

7. Strike the Saint 11-1
Don’t be surprised to see Strike as one of the trailers in the field. Strike doesn’t leave the gate with any fire but does pick it up late in the race. Strike recenly moved up to stakes competition with mixed results hitting the board in 2 of 4 starts. She is coming off a 7th place finish in the Smackdown (won by Black Ty Tinsel) but put in a game effort coming back from about 10 lengths down to miss by 3. There’s not a lot of speed in this race which creates an opportunity for Strike to steal this one.

8. Sisson’s Forest 9-1
Sisson has been in the money 11 of 14 sprint starts and has been steady in recording speeds of 100+ since December. Her racing history is a bit puzzling. Her last two races have been at mile distances, going against the allowance level. She had been racing at stakes level before that, consistantly hitting the board primarily in sprints. Her last race was a disappointing 5th in a speed of 100. She is making only her third graded race start despite her record of 6-1-4-1 in the cheaper stakes races since December. She is a hard late closer but her recent drop to allowance level does lend it’s concerns, especially considering she walked away winless from those two races.

9. Sand Snake 13-1
Sand Snake was brought back to sprint racing back in February after running primarily mile races. With that move, she was bumped up into stakes races. She has had mixed results, coming in the money 3 of 6 starts. Sand usually runs in the middle of the field and her last two outings were both disappointing 7th place finishes. She has raced on the NY surface three times coming in third once…and as a side note, one of her recent 7th place finishes was on this track. Recent form doesn’t show Sand Snake as a major threat but who knows, she may find a way to slither herself to an upset.

10. Hand of the Sinner 19-1
Sinner is an up and coming filly who has won 5 of her career 8 starts. She makes her graded stakes debut here. She’s coming off a gate to wire victory where she won by a nose in a 3-way photo finish. In this race, she ran the 7.5f in a speed of 108. She will most likely be the pace setter in this race, and if she can keep the speed up, she can upset this group.

11. Furion Stage 13-1
A winner of 8 sprints (in 17 starts), Furion shows she can reel in the leaders. Additionally, she’s been ITM 13 of those 17 starts, showing good consistancy. So why the high odds? First, she’s coming off a poor 11th place finish in a 6f Grade 2 race. Second, she has only recently started to show some consistancy in charting speeds over 100. She does have a Grade 3 win on the NY track two races back, scoring a speed of 108. She has pulled off several upsets in the past, and don’t discount her here.

12. Dictation 14-1
Dictation is a tempermental horse which I will get to in a moment. She has won 6 of 11 sprint starts, which anyone would be happy with having a success rate of over 50%. She has a late kick that is dangerous and the reason she has made many trips to the winners circle. Now her problems…she doesn’t respond well to the starting gate and we will probably see her as a trailer. She is also moody which effects her closing ability. If she’s in good mood, she will respond to the whip and run hard. If she’s grouchy, she’ll linger back and be non-responsive. Depending on which mood she is in will determine if you get a winner or loser…flip a coin…50-50 shot of getting it right.

13. Song of the Hawk 8-1
Song comes in with an impressive 11 victories in 18 sprint starts. From March 2007 to January 2008 she ran a stint of 9 wins in 11 starts. Unfortunately, since her last win, she has come up dry. She hasn’t hit the board in her last 4 starts. However, there may be a light at the end of this tunnel. In her last start she finished 4th, less than a length off the winner. In this race, she closed more than 10 lengths in the final quarter. This could be the sign of a turnaround.

14. Koko Taylor 11-1
Koko has a record of 30-9-6-6. She has been consistantly lately hitting the board 7 of her last 10 outings. With this going for her, what could go wrong? Well, she has only been racing in lower stakes where she is very competitive. She is making her first graded race since October. Her record at the graded level is less impressive with one win in 10 starts. She will need to be at her best to visit the winners circle in this race.

A tough race to make a selection. Only one horse shows early speed and could make the upset. Several horses have a late kick that could take it too. My selection here is for Song of the Hawk. She showed an agressive move to miss by less than a length in her last race and I think this race will be her turnaround to good fortune. She picks up Lawton for the ride (24% win) which should enhance her chances.

Stirling Form should get a good trip and shows a liking to the track and gets my second choice. My third selection goes to Strike the Sand who can close a ton of ground late and since the field has only one true front runner, there’s a good chance she can make a fruitful move.