A Spartan Comeback?
The 10f 3yo test presents some proven Grade 1 Runners, and lots of up and coming wannabe stars. The track came up firm, and the sun is shining on the Illinois Turf Course, let’s take a look at the runners:
#1 JMAHLSPERFECTSTORM(KY) 27/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=144224
12 Races – 3 Wins – 81,391$
The Perfect Soul colt comes in on a 2 win streak in light ALW Races, his speeds are not too promising, and to me it’s always mysterious, when owners push their horses from good ALW horses into Graded Company, there are small field Stakes races to get your feet wet, this horse will face an uphill battle all day, unless, he can up his lifetime high by 15 speed points, odds say it all.
#2 FLEET DAISY(KY) 5/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=138321
14 Races – 4 Wins – 1,707,970$
This is perhaps the most surprise entries this week, the 3y0 Afleet Alex Colt is one of the sims dirt 3yo stars, he won the Breeders Bowl Juvenile on Dirt as a 2yo, finished 7th in the Bluegrass Derby, 3rd in the Middle Jewel Stakes and 4th in the New Yorker. His latest outing saw him disappoint as 10th in a Smackdown race. Lots of people would have expected him to perhaps take a comeback tour at 9-10f Dirt in a Grade 3, but his owning Stable Moose Hollow Farm has decided to make the surface switch. He won an 8f ALW race a s a 2yo on turf, and finished 4th in the Grade 3 Phenom Stakes, however his turf speeds looked way under his dirt speeds. Nureyev as the Dam Dam’s Sire suggests turf influence, but from his last 2 turf performances, it’s tough to judge his ability.
#3 GARTELMANN(GER) 16/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=151627
9 Races – 3 Wins – 94,776$
I like to see German breed horses, and this one really seems one of the few that has some class J. The Monsun colt has been running his last 5 races on turf and has shown some up and down form, last time out he disappointed in the Grade 2 Upper California Derby finishing 8th with a dismal 87. However in late June he won the July War Challenge over 10f in a great speed of 104, which should make him at least a Top 5 contender, however that was his lifetime high, and not a lot of fingers point his direction. Will struggle to find the early pace and needs a step up in class to be competitive here.
#4 SPARTIATE(ENG) 5/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=138999
12 Races – 4 Wins – 916,375$
The 3yo Pivotal colt seems a very classy horse, and one thats overdue for a win. His last win came as a 2yo in late December, when he won the Grade 1 Epiphani Too Handicap, from then on he was running exclusively in Grade 1 Races. He just missed the winners circle in the Derby de English, when he was third, and finished 2nd in a Restricted Smackdown Race last time out. He also produced a lifetime high speed of 108. Based on his performances at 8f and 9f earlier this year I expect him to better that speed even more today over 10f, as he was running 12f his last races. My winning pick.
#5 DEEEETROIT TIGER(KY) 8/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=138582
13 Races – 3 Wins – 176,535$
The 3yo War Chant Colt comes in from a nice 2nd place in the Upper California Derby, he is a pure turf specialist, that won his last 2 races in January, an ALW and a Stakes race. The Stakes race was over 9f and the 104 were his career high so far, he placed in Graded company lately and looks to be on the brink of another explosion in terms of speed numbers. Could run a lot better than the 104 suggest, but has been struggling to catch up to speedy leaders lately. Needs a slow pace first to have a chance with his closing kick.
#6 OISANS(JPN) 10/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=33302
10 Races – 3 Wins – 83,942$
The Alkaseed colt has been struggling with form lately. His explosion race came back in May, when he won a 11f ALW with a crashing 108. His last two starts suggested it was a one day wonder, he finished 2nd in two stakes races with a 91 and 100 speed rating. Even worse for today, it seems he needs more distance, his 10f speeds are rather average compared to his 11f speeds. Seems to have stamina, but missing the closing kick, which got him caught on the stretch a few times. Likes to take the lead, so look for him to set a pace early.
#7 FROST DRAGON(KY) 20/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=143305
12 Races – 4 Wins – 158,200$
The Unbridled’s Song colt is another front runner, which already makes 3 out of 7 horses look for early speed. This scenario likely works against him, he won 2 ALWs and a stakes race already this season, but consistency and staying are his two major problems. The Adelaide Derby was a typical was a typical run for him, he lead all the way, but in the end the 13f just took his toll on him, as he faded to 5th. His last race was his best so far, when only 1 caught him, and he finished with a nice 102 over 10f. This will not be enough today, as he will likely even be contested heavy for the lead.
#8 METIS(AUS) 8/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=6209
12 Races – 5 Wins – 332,440$
The 3yo redoute’s Choice Colt seems to get better with every race, after finishing 3rd in the Adelaide Derby, he got a nice 6 week break, and came out fresh to win a Grade 3 in South West Wales with a nice 102, he topped that speed with a 106 last time out finishing 2nd in a Grade 2. Both his last races were over 10f, which makes him one of the top picks today. If he can up his speed like the last two races suggest he will be in it, however he is another horse that likes to take the lead, will be dangerous to loose lots of energy early.
#9 THRACE(KY) 11/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=111565
10 Races – 4 Wins – 148,448$
3 uncontested ALW wins in a row made it difficult to judge the class of the 3yo Empire Maker colt, he showed his real class last time out. He finished 3rd in the Trojan Horse Special, just a few lengths behind Metis, so those two will meet on the track again with the winner of the Grade 2 Yepes missing, it will be interesting to see how that race can be judged. Thrace’s advantage may be, that he likes to stalk the pace, and there will be lots of horses to stalk today. Look for him to get even better as he continues to develop, a Top 3 finish is possible, if his race-tactic works.
#10 STORMING OFF(MN) 25/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=139479
13 Races – 3 Wins – 81,742$
The 3yo Demidoff colt is one of the strangest horses you may see, his career was heading towards MCL category, however in his 11th race he turned it all around, he finally broke his maiden in his 2nd turf try over 9.5f, his next two races were incredible, he won 2 ALW races, topping of a 100 speed mark last time out. His real potential hasn’t been seen I’m pretty sure, this late developing colt looks to have lots more class and stamina. The Grade 1 may come a few weeks too early, but I give him lots of credit, and I think he’ll likely finish way better, than his odds suggest.
#11 RODE ME HARD(KY) 4/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=73252
15 Races – 7 Wins – 265,200$
The 3yo rahy Colt looks to get his win% back to 50%, and he looks like the real class of this race, his performances of 113 and 111 over 9f in 2 of his last 3 races really make him look like best bet in this race. However, he has not yet run a 10f race, so no one knows how he’ll handle the extra furlong. His owners have never shied away from experimenting with him, as 3 tries on dirt this season show. He is a very inconsistent runner, as his weak Smackdown performance shows. He can run from the back or from mid.pack, both styles should work well in this field, and it will be tough to beat him, however I think one horse in this field will be able to do it.
#12 JAGGED PILL(ENG) 16/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=134569
11 Races – 4 Wins – 158,255$
When the Medicean Colt beat Fleet daisy in his last 2yo Race the Phenom Stakes it was unpredictable how different those 2 careers would work out, while Fleet daisy went to the Triple Crown and finished placed in two out of the 3 Races Jagged Pill struggled in Stakes company, he had to wait to July to return to the winners circle again, however his speed numbers suggest no good for today. He has no great closing kick, and likes to run near the pace, not too well suited for todays race, plus I see him a full class level beyond the others.
#13 FRANKLIN TERRACE(IRE) 15/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=142398
16 Races – 5 Wins – 361,775$
In May the 3yo Montjeu Colt looked like an up and coming star, he finished 2nd in the Grade 1 Carribean, and his speed numbers developed nicely, however since then he has been struggling mightily. His best race came early July, when winning a Stakes race over 8f with his career high 100 speed. However in the Trojan Horse Special and the Derby the English he had no chance, and he faced lots of todays runners in those races. Look for him to struggle and finish way behind the leaders, sorry, but no match.
#14 RED SLIPS AWAY(GER) 14/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=47168
11 Races – 4 Wins – 99,807$
The last runner is another German Breed, the Ransom O’ War Colt is a typical ALW runner stepping up in class, he won 3 ALWs in a row from May to July, his first stakes race he finsihed a nice 3rd over 9f in Maine. Guess he should have stayed competing in Ungraded Stakes Races, sorry, but no match for this races class. Likes to stalk, which could be an advantage with all the leading pace-makers, but I guess his closing speed will not be high enough today.
The race matches Rode me Hard with Spartiate those 2 I look for to be there in the end, Thrace and Metis look top contenders, with Storming Off my top outside shot and great betting value for a show bet. I pick Spartiate, as I think he is due for a win and will be fitted well by the 10f race.