As autumn approaches, all thoughts Sim turn to all things Breeders Bowl. With that marquee event only about five weeks away, the trainers of most juveniles with a maiden win and some stakes experience are positioning themselves for spots inside this October classic event.
Juvenile fillies on grass have their moment in the sun at Ascot on Saturday, when a full field of fourteen embarks in pursuit of the Grade I, $500,000 Filly Grand Prix. This mile on the lawn has attracted a full and competitive field, marked by the presence of three of the top five fillies in the division.
Super Gold is the division’s leader at present, and she draws the outside post over the firm Ascot ground. That’s the only drawback to her presence here, key though it might possibly be, and there’s an awful lot of upside to this one. She’s regally bred, a daughter of Seeking The Gold from a Northern Dancer mare. She’s 4-for-4 lifetime. She’s got the circuit leader in the irons, who so happens to be a member of one of the most talented jockey families in the Sim. She’s won two graded stakes in a row, a Grade I and a Grade III. She’s trained by the super20 stables. And she’s never trailed another horse at any call in her career. At this stage, could she be a Sim version of Ruffian, who also never trailed at any point of call in her regular career? That’s way too early to tell. Her speed figures hang over this field like a veil, and the added furlong isn’t likely to hinder her development. But that post position…whether the post a horse gets in the Sim influences its result is a big point of debate in the Sim, but if she’s going to want the lead, as she’s shown beforehand, theoretically she’s going to have to use a bit of energy to make her case. She’s very clearly the one to beat, but the post position might be a chink in her not-inconsiderable armor.
Horse Nashville(SAF) is the third-ranked horse in the division, and while her record is not perfect, her running style could be ideal here. She’s a late-running daughter of Horse Chestnut(SAF) from a Lure mare, who’s faced the boys and gone 1-for-2 against them: she failed in an open Grade III, but got her revenge against them last out in Colorado. Shipping back overseas isn’t necessarily the kiss of death, but this trainee of baracoon needs to be on her game to have a shot late. She’ll require a pace with some pressure to get her stretch drive in peak performance, and while her numbers against the colts have been very good for her young career, they fall a notch below some of the other choices. She’ll be in it late, but what transpires early on will set the tone for her run.
Native Species takes a stab at this for the bodgit stables, and her credentials are also pretty solid from a battle of the sexes; her win in Kansas last time in her turf debut was a sparkling fig against the boys. Thing is, was it the surface switch, a weaker field of colts, or is she the real deal? The number from that race stacks up pretty well here, and if anything, this daughter of Medaglia D’Oro from a Raise A Native mare is liable to improve quite nicely. She’s earned her ranking at #4 in the division, but her main sticking point, is a lack of seasoning against graded company on grass, and she’s going to have to give a lot of pressure to the early pace to help herself out. The distance shouldn’t hurt her, and she’s bred to have a great career ahead of her; it remains to be seen where her future lies.
Dancin Ransom has the pedigree to appreciate added ground, but she has picked a difficult spot to make her graded stakes debut in. A daughter of Red Ransom-Sovereign Fort, by Forty Niner, she closed well to take a Hong Kong stakes last out, but the race doesn’t come up a strong figure compared to some others here. The socalsipe trainee has taken to the mile distance so far, and that experience makes her a factor. She’s another filly, versatile enough to close, stalk or lead, who will watch what might transpire on the front end. But her lack of seasoning at a higher level of competition at this stage gives her a steeper mountain to climb.
Mountain Goose made a surface switch pay off in her last. She’s by Mountain Cat-Bert’s Events, by Forty Niner, and she made her turf debut in Texas last out a winning one, earning this representative of the rosesinmay stable a career-best speed fig in the process. She’s steadily improving, and won that one wire-to-wire. But the number was still only in the upper-70s, and at least six others have already broken the 80-speed-figure barrier, with a couple more having career-bests higher than hers. The best line of defense here might be to surrender the early lead, and lie in wait for a stretch drive, which she’s surely capable of doing.
Mr.Men(AUS) is an intriguing contender for chi4504. The daughter of Flying Spur(AUS) from a Sir Tristram(IRE) mare has started off well, winning two of her first three, including a stakes win at Longchamp. But she’s faded late in her last two starts, finishing second twice, and this is her first try at a distance longer than six-and-a-half-furlongs. With the early lead all but spoken for in this Grade I, barring a burst of rabbit-like speed, she’ll quite possibly be switched into the role of stalker here, a role in which she has not a lot of experience. It must be said that she can be lightning-quick, as her numbers when sprinting have cracked 80, so she’s a threat on the front end. But one gets a sinking feeling a mile would be asking just a little too much for this plucky filly.
In Time(IRE) has hit the board in each of five starts for the million stables, and she’s another filly for a pace which is setting up to be awfully swift. A daughter of In Excess(IRE)-Nurse Helen, by Gilded Time, she wired them in a restricted Smackdown race at seven furlongs last time out, and she has proven her undying affection for the grass: she’s perfect in three starts on the surface. The trouble, however, starts with a relative inexperience against stakes fillies in open company; she owns a stakes win against the boys, and the aforementioned restricted race, but nothing in open company against just the girls. Her numbers are actually improving nicely, bumping against the 80 barrier, but in a race this teeming with early foot, one wonders if she can make the grade with some faster femmes.
Carson Touch(NZ) is a daughter of Zabeel(NZ)-Welldonecarson, by Sadler’s Wells. The pedigree features a little bit of everything, from speed to stamina, but only the speed has been showing up while racing for the stables of holychow. She’s a stakes winner, breaking 80 last out in a French stakes, but she had to be grim and absolute to do it; most of her runs have been one-dimensional, from gate to wire on the lead. There’s no guarantee she’d be fast enough to get to the front here, and when she’s tried to rate, she stalled out in mid-pack. A talented sprinting filly, she’s still young enough that she’ll settle down into a running style she can get used to, but a Grade I loaded with speed and talent is likely a little much to ask this time around.
Midnight Rainbow, for the stables of ronleonard, is a daughter of Hennessy-Her Scales, by High Ice, who has taken her last two starts off from the grass to try her hand on the dirt. The dirt was, shall we say, a mixed blessing: though she did wire an allowance field in Germany in one of those two starts, the speed figures on average were a notch below the numbers she’s had on turf. And on grass, there is potential: her fifth in a Grade II four back was a near-miss, by a half-length. Here, she’s more likely to be in stalking position, and the races on the dirt are more than likely going to improve her grass efforts to come, so to that end she’s got potential down the land. Right here, right now, though, her numbers fall seriously short of some of the chalk.
The Winner Isn’t, for whoami1, is bred for grass racing, as a daughter of Opening Verse-Freek’s Prize, by Prized. She has the most starts in the field, with seven career races under her belt. But in six of those, The Winner Isn’t, the winner wasn’t. She’s got only a MSW win, though she is stakes-placed, and has found herself usually trying to make a late move far too late. This stands to reason, as she’s bred to like longer distances. Running beyond six-and-a-half furlongs for the first time is bound to appeal to her, and one wouldn’t be surprised if her middle move doesn’t bear some solid results going a route. Against some of the best in the division, though, she’s still has a ways to go in her development; her numbers still far pretty short, and her late move hasn’t been noticeable at stakes level.
Vindictive Force, a daughter of Vindication-Louis’s Birds, by Forty Niner, has shown a good amount of potential on dirt. Her closing kick looked fabulous in the Sky Beauty in New York last time, where she was second, and her numbers at first glance seem to fit well with these. But this is her turf debut, and she couldn’t have picked a more difficult spot if trainer 40storm99 had put the Black Type Bugler on a dart board, aimed and fired. To be absolutely fair and balanced, her dam is a stakes winner on the turf, and all six races did come on that surface. And there’s room for some good, strong, deep closers in this race, with as much speed as we’re likely to see up front. If she carries through on the strength of her dam’s experience, she’s going to be far more than a vindictive force in the division. Still, one wonders whether an easier spot might have been found to make a grass racing debut.
Mambo Moonshell is the most lightly raced filly here, with just three career starts. Alas, she only got her maiden win in her third start. This trainee for the cleverdoc stables is bred for grass racing at a high level; she’s by Kingmambo-Tina Marie, by Sadler’s Wells, which hints at a love down the road for middle distances. But having just won her MSW last out, and with her numbers not yet rising above 70, to skip allowance levels and listed stakes to try a Grade I is a little bit beyond ambitious. There’s oodles of potential in this well-bred filly, but at this stage she’s like a six-year-old girl trying on her big sister’s makeup. Her time will come, but now? Not so much.
Battle Rages On(GB) has hit the board in each of her four starts, but her maiden win just came last out. Trained by zewango1, this daughter of Diesis(GB) from a Lyphard mare got her lone win after three seconds in a restricted MSW, and had to work to get it, coming from off the pace to get the job done with a solid 77 speed fig. There’s a lot of room in this Grade I for horses hoping to avoid the expected pace crunch on the front end, and she fits the bill, to be sure, but there are a few fillies in this bunch with more seasoning who are more viable candidates.
Kitten Express is a daughter of Johar-Belle Kitten, by Fantastic Light, for the countdiana stable. She’s got a maiden win, and is stakes placed, plus she likes to make her move by the top of the stretch. And she’s bred to go longer, which benefits her preferred style. But her numbers fall closer to the bottom than the top of the field, and she’s likely to need an overachieving performace to get her primed for her best effort.
My selections:
- Super Gold
- Horse Nashville(SAF)
- Vindictive Force
- Mr. Men(AUS)
- Mountain Goose
Good luck, and happy racing!