Tremptin back after Smackdown
5 Horses made it to Germany for this nice 90,000$ stakes Race over 11 furlong on the dirt fast track. We have 3 almost equally bet good horses, with two outsiders going under starters orders, let’s take a closer look at the 5:
#1 TREMPTIM(FR) 8/5
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=129529
20 Races – 5 Wins – 353,229$
The 4yo Trempolino colt comes into this stakes race with a very impressive 2nd place in the Grade 1 Smackdown Race, only loosing to Multiple Grade 1 Winner Pine Spirit. The 109 over 12f marked the 2nd highest lifetime speed, and his season best. He is a very up and down runner, that won a Stakes Race over 13f back in June, his lone win this season. Owning Stable bigblueone claimed the horse for just 50,000$ back in May 07, when the horse was put in a 50K MCL, he never ran in claimers again, and never shorter than 10f afterwards, winning an ALW in his first start for his new owner. His Race performances are an up and down mix, with great performances being followed by low effort runs.
#2 NATION OF ULYSSES(LA) 6/5
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=125146
26 Races – 5 Wins -156,697$
The bookies made the 4yo War Eagle Colt the slight favourite over Tremptin, however looking at the last couple of races this move is tough to understand. Nation of Ulysses comes off a nice win in an ALW Race in sweden, but the 102 looks average, and it was his first win this season, after 3 2nd places. His speeds on average look better, as he ran 100+ in 6 of his 8 races, however because of the recent blockbuster performance I’d favour Tremptin a little.
#3 ANDROMEDA’S BAND(KY) 16/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=22949
23 Races – 2 Wins – 149,902$
The 3yo Andromeda’s Hero Colt looks a nice 3yo, but taking his speed numbers, he should run out his ALW conditions as a 3yo, and not tackle stakes races with older horses. He placed in both his last runs, a 11f Stakes race for 3yos and a 14f ALW. However, he has yet to break the 100 mark, and his best result came back in march, when he ran a 98 over 9.5f. he looks to be better on the other side of 10f.
#4 BEND AWAY(IRE) 11/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=13610
15 Races – 2 Wins – 131,862$
Another 3yo looking more for easy 4th place money than everything else here. The Refuse to Bend Colt looked nice last time out, finishing 2nd in a Stakes race over 12f for 3yo only, and thats where he should have stayed. Sorry, but this is one step too much, for the colt, that has ALW conditions left. A lifetime high mark of 98, he looks a bit better than the other 3yo, but still way off.
#5 NORTH OTTAWA(KY) 5/2
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=133025
25 Races – 4 Wins – 79,544$
Looking at the earnings of this colt, you wonder why he is here, but if you look at the last race, you get the idea. A crushing 113 over 11f, however on a sloppy track. He had been struggling very much before, running in short routes and sprints, not getting very effective results. The up in the trip returned a great performance by the 4yo Seeking the Gold Colt. Look out for him trying to smash the ground again, however, it has to be seen if he can repeat that performance. His lifetime high before was a 102 back in december 07, but at 11f, so it looks the distance is his preferred so expect a good run.
Overall a close contest between the 3 4yos, there may be 3yos, that can compete with older horses in August, but none of them is in this race. My pick is Tremptin, who looks the best overall pick, but he needs one of his good runs, if he fails expect North ottawa and nation of ulysess to be there for the winners cheque.