9 in a sloppy West Virgina Stakes Race

 Welcome to West Virginia Race Track, today Stakes Race will see a competitive field of 9 fillies and mares, aged 3 and up, looking at the odds it should be a heavily contested race, favourite lemon Drop Chick is listed at 7/2, with 3 horses getting equal odds at 5/1. The track came up sloppy so that should be something to be looked at, let’s focus in on the runners:

#1 TRIGGER’S GIRL G 7/1

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=96686

47 Races – 8 Wins – 178,276$  Off: 4 Races – 2 Wins – 17,988$

The 5yo well traveled Roy Mare is coming off a 5 week break, the longest she got so far this season. The results in her last 4 races have been less than average, she ran a disappointing 10^th in her only Stakes Start this season 2 starts back. Her last win came in March in an 8f ALW race, where she used her winless conditions. However a nice ALW win in early march on a good track at nebraska gives hope, she seems to like off-tracks, and the race is not overshadowed by a heavy favourite.

#2 ST. ARCH(KY) 5/1

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=129070

23 Races – 6 Wins – 103,426$ Off: 2 Races – 1 Win – 7,164$

The Arch Mare has been mainly running in ALW sprint races this season, however her attempts at routes have been very promising, winning an 8f ALW in January and finishing 5^th in a Grade 1 back in June. Her last race during the 1^st week of July was an absolute flop, finishing 9^th in a 7f ALW race. Her best this season was a 106 over 8f, so she likely runs at her best distance, however her experience on sloppy tracks is non-existent.

#3 B.K. LOUNGE 5/1

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=108266

34 Races – 9 Wins – 249,392$  Off: 5 Races – 4 Wins – 249,392$

The 5yo Vindication mare has been running exclusivly in ALW Races this season, she won 1 of 6 races this season, showing she is lgthly raced, and usually receives extended breaks between races, she comes off a 4 week break this time, however the level at which she ran dropped significantly in 2008. Her best speed came at 103 over 8f, however she’s an off-track specialist, winning not only 4 out of 5 lifetime, but her only win in 08 came at a good dirt track at Delaware in May. She hopes to build on that performance and return to her mid-season 07 form, when she raced a career high 110 and won several ALW races.

#4 ALY STORM 6/1

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=9718

30 Races – 9 Wins – 861,341$  Off: 2 Races – 1 Win – 35,400$

The 7yo Storm Cat Mare is a former Grade 1 winner, winning already as a 2yo filly, she ran in both the Breeders Bowl and the Bluegrass Oaks afterwards. Her career took a deep cut after that not running for nearly a year afterwards. She returned in 06 as a 5yo and went ahead to win a Grade 2 Race. She then took an untypical 1 year rest period again between July 07 and May 08. Now she is back on the track looking for success again, she won an ALW with a nice 105 mark back in May, and that on a good dirt track. Her last race was a flop, but that can be expected of a 7yo. She has all the experience to return to the Winners Circle here, but it has to be seen if she can still take the stress of a Stakes race at her age.

#5 SPINNING TALES(KY) 5/1

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=7707

19 Races – 6 Wins – 108,390$  Off: 3 Races – 2 Wins – 34,084$

The 4yo Tale of a Cat Mare runs in her first stakes race, and we can expect a lot from her. She seemed stakes ready back in January, when she ran speeds of 100 regularly, however she couldn’t get it in ALW class until May, when she was taken out of racing for a 5 week period. She returned early July winning an 8f ALW with a lifetime high of 106. So her form is at the best, and with a 106 she could easily sneak the race, as she has proven to be a good off-track runner, winning as a 3yo in similar conditions with an equal 106 over 8f. Looks the best so far, but will have to battle Lemondrop Chick and Ultimate Empire, who we’ll see next .

#6 ULTIMATE EMPIRE 6/1

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=10321

33 Races – 3 Wins – 87,101$  Off: 4 Races – 1 Win – 20,055$

Looking at the Race Record of the 5yo Empire Maker Mare, you wonder how she received odds of 6/1, however looking at her profile, she shows it right on the top line of her race record, a 110 over 7.5f ran on a sloppy dirt course. Being mainly a ALW sprinter, she seems to excel, when the track turns wet. She broke her maiden on a sloppy course, and her best 2 lifetime speed numbers came on sloppy tracks. She could only finish 3^rd with her 110, but loosing to a multiple stakes winner running a 115 is no shame. She should be in the top 3, and if she can confirm her last two races on sloppy tracks should win this.

#7 SCHITZNGIGGLE(KY) 14/1

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=141475

13 Races – 4 Wins – 169,695$  Off: 1 Race – 0 wins – 5,200$

Putting a 3yo in a race with older horses in early August is an adventure, and her odds reflect it, however her mark on the track could mean better things. She won a Stakes Race 2 back with a nice 102 over 8f, however she fought an uphill battle in the Smackdown Event last time out, leading the field into the stretch, but fading badly into 10^th. She likes to take the lead and has Graded experience, however the off-track and her age mean too much likely to overcome.

#8 LEMON DROP CHICK 7/2

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=103229

29 Races – 7 Wins – 179,492$  Off: 9 races – 4 Wins – 93,118$

The 5yo Lemon Drop Kid Mare has turned into an off-track specialist, running her last 5 races in wet conditions, the last 4 on sloppy tracks, and the good news, she won 2 of the 4 Races, one ALW race and a Stakes Race back in June. She ran her highest speed number 3 back finishing 5^th in a Grade 2 with a 108. This is looking powerful, and her consistent 100+ speeds make her the 7/2 favourite. Her running style coming from the back means we’ll likely see her battle Ultimate Empire all race.

#9 GLOBAL SUNRISE(MD) 8/1

http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=132151

14 Races – 4 Wins – 119,195$  Off: 1 Race – 1 Win – 6,720$

Entering a horse with a lifetime high speed number of 102 seems to make little sense, when most horses can break 105 or better, but looking at the way she exceled the last races makes the entry look more promising. Her last race on a good dirt track she produced an easy ALW win over 8f, so there looks to be more in her. The 4yo Seeking Daylight filly will have to show it all this time, and I’d say a Top 3 finish is a little out of reach under normal circumstances.

I like Lemon Drop Chicks Chances, Ultimate Empire has the better lifetime high mark in similar Conditions, but Lemon Drop Chick is a pure sloppy runner, so no surprises. All other will not only battle her opponents, but also the track, I could imagine Spinning Tales or St. Arch in the Top 3, but they’ll have to show how they can handle the ground, overall a very competitive race, with a former sim superstar in Aly Storm as an asterik.