Smackdown classic
Fully one-third of this field is ranked in the top 51 of the division, indicating just how talented the Smackdown older horse 10f dirt stakes really is. Four of the fifteen runners are millionaires, and four ran a 110 SP or better in their most recent start. Four of the field are G1 winners, and several others have won other levels of graded stakes or are graded-placed. This is a wonderfully deep and talented field, and all manners of surprises are possible.
The race is in its fourth year. The inaugural running was won in 2:00.4 by Year Of The Vote, running for the DelPenn residency. The GR Simsters‘ Slither took second. Slither turned the tables in the second edition, winning in 2:01 flat over fellow GR Simster Solar Song. To complete the second-to-winner trend, in last year’s Smackdown Solar Song took over and posted a 1:59.3 to beat Awegustus of the Simsters. Alas Awegustus has not returned to take his spot in the winner’s circle this year, nor has third-place finisher New Found Cyclone. The fourth-place horse, Specimen X, however is ready and willing to take on the heir apparent role for the Simsters.
The GR Simsters
Team Simster is lead by Smackdown veteran Solar Song, making his third appearance in the series. The top-ranked horse in the division has a win and a second in his two attempts, and despite clearly slowing down at the grand old age of 6, the son of Deputy Minister still must be considered formidable. Running for the Squirrel4 barn, Solar Song pretty much needs a worthy showing to merit further consideration in the graded stakes this year. He’s co-second betting choice at 6-1 odds primarily due to a superb second-place effort in the Sand Castle Classic three back, but his last race in a 10f G3 was less than inspiring. As he makes start #47, one must seriously consider how much the horse has left to give. On the plus side did secure the services of top track jockey H Ross.
Specimen X is the Simsters best hope to keep that second-year-winner streak going. Peeps4’s Fusaichi Pegasus 5yo ran a lovely 110SP in the 2007 race but the best he could manage was a fourth. Since then the horse has earned a 10f stakes win and placed in a couple of 9f G2s, putting him in good company with this group. He seems much better at 9 than 10, but he’s got some serious speed and I love the cutback from 11f to 10f here. 9-1 odds, and drew D Silver as his jockey. Silver, for those out of the know, is better known as Given, president of the GR Simster. It sure doesn’t hurt that the trainer also handled the first Smackdown winner Slither – some very good karma in this horse.
Bluegrass Ghost shares co-second choice morning line honors at 6-1. The 4yo Ghostzapper is a G2 winner at 10f and has hit 112+ in his last four starts at that distance. He’s perfectly prepped for this race with an easy jog in a 12f stake in May; with some good rest and the drop back to his favored distance, he should be set for a huge race. veteran jockey B Ironside gets the call for the Illbred stable’s star colt. The Ghost tends to run from 3-4 lengths back, so watch for him to sit just off the lead and make his moving around the quarter pole. A lot to like about this youngster.
Improv goes off at 8-1 for the Cheadle stable. The 5yo Distorted Humor son just made his graded debut in the 9f G2 Brooke Lynn. He made it home in third place, closing well and showing signs of wanting to go longer. Improv hasn’t run 10 panels in over 18 months, but he’s a two-time winner at this distance in allowance company and as he has matured has become a better runner overall. Doubt he’s the winner in this elite company, but surely good enough for a fifth or better. Jock M Kelly rides; Kelly is the sim-alter ego of Mtk76, a GR Simster.
Rare for a Lenny horse to be a longshot, but among the Simster team Serpent’s Eyes does get that distinction for the Aframe27 barn at 16-1 odds. He’s a heck of a lot better than his odds suggest, however. In four tries at 10f, the 4yo Rainbow Quest colt has three wins and a second, including a stakes win last out with a superb 111SP. He’s never tried graded company, and while this race is of G1 caliber he appears perfectly suited to the class and distance. Loves to run right up with the pace, could well get away with stealing it from the front. Somehow drew a jockey experiencing a very subpar year in I Wimpy.
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Minnesota Downs
Team Minnesota is led by Ataun, the 2007 Bluegrass Derby hero. A 4yo son of Gone West, Palmisland’s colt has just one win since the big dance last May but he’s been right up in the mix in graded company, notching three placings in the last year. At 10f he’s either super or just okay, if he can turn in the super version he is good enough to win by daylight. Like to come from a ways back, will face some challenges in the stretch run. C O’Hara rides the 7-1 entrant. The jockey is having a below average year but still places at a decent clip.
Bedonkohe, 15-1 on the morning line, drew the rail post for trainer Hamster. The 4yo Saarland colt has tried 10f just once and ran into a 16+ length loss, but since then he’s really turned it around and earned three 105+ SPs including a 112 in an open allowance. Can be deadly when let loose on the lead, but can he get the lead in this crowd? Bedonkohe does have some serious speed, true, but in stakes he’s never been able to get the job done. Threw in a stinker last race, but that can be attributed to the quick runback; with better rest this time, he might surprise. Jockey T Cox is winning at nearly a 10% clip this year, so that has to help Bedonkohe’s chances.
CK Bomber runs for the Ckstable at 24-1 odds. The High Chaparral 4yo colt is stakes-placed in his only 10f start (a Minnesota residency event). Top SP of 109 puts him a notch below the best of this group, but as that was earned at 10f, Bomber merits due consideration. He prefers to stalk the pace, and should have a nice easy time of in that position. Big question is how well he handles these tough foes. Is coming in off 7 weeks rest, will he be back in shape? A Mitchell, who is having a below-average year stats-wise, gets the ride.
KC Is Biz Z drew jockey young T Tyson, who has improved his win rate to just over 7% this year. Biz Z starts at 24-1 for the Falcon12 stable, and faces a difficult task in his first stakes start in over 3 years. The 7yo son of Rousillon has found his niche after 50-odd starts in the classic division with occasional forays into long. A pretty solid allowance horse, it’s tough to think the frontrunner will have an easy time of it against such talented foes but stranger things have happened in the sim.
The final Minnesota rep is Triune, running for the Whirlaway stable. At 26-1, the 5yo son of Storm Cat and legendary racemare First Ryder is the field longshot. Triune has had some successes over the years (he beat Solar Song the race before the 2006 Breeders Bowl) and has been running 100+ in the last year pretty consistently. Has made mud a specialty despite just one win in the wet, but it’s clear he has an affinity for it. Even on fast, however, Triune has his formidable moments. Has the genes to win, and has shown he’s capable of beating the best, but this is still a lot to ask of him. Jockey R. Hall’s 3% win rate sure won’t help.
DelPenn
Team DelPenn sends off Non Negative as the 5-1 favorite. Running for the Mook stable, the 4yo A.P. Indy colt has secured the riding services of Z Wango, one of the best at the track and also a DelPenn resident better known as Sdmf. Non Negative just stomped Ataun and several other top handicappers in the New Hampshire Handicap, setting a new stakes record in the process. At 10f he’s got a stakes win and a G2 second by a nose, and has two superb SPs. Odd it’s taken so long to get back to 10f given just how good he looks at the classic distance. Has an excellent chance at stealing the race. Keepa very close eye on this colt for the remainder of the year.
Barb’s Adventure, trained by Sprintbarn, is a G2 winner at 10, 11, and 12f, making him a dangerously versatile runner. At 6 years of age, the Palace Music horse still has the talent to reel off daylight wins at 12f in stakes company. He’s been on break since March, so one has to wonder how he’ll do with such a break behind him. At 10f he’s a topnotch horse. Assuming he is in shape, we could see a real surprise. I like the looks of this old boy as a spoiler at 11-1. Jockey A. Mitchell has been riding more poorly than in the past.
No doubt trainer Sdmf7 couldn’t pass up the opportunity to breed, train, and ride a potential Smackdown winner with Superdrive II. Alas Z Wylde is not nearly the super-jock that Sdmf’s other jockey self Z Wango is, as the former is winning at 40% of his lifetime rate this year. Superdrive is a 4yo son of Unbridled’s Song making his first 10f start. The colt is a stakes winner t 9f, but his only start beyond that was a 12f 20-length loss. He loves to be out front, and with luck he’ll get the lead and keep it. Capable of running 112 at 9f, but hard to say if he can carry that an extra furlong.
Miracle To Me is Sdmf’s third runner in the race, representing the Soulbleed barn. The 6yo son of Deputy Minister comes off a 4+ length win at 16f back down to what i think might actually be his best distance despite a long successful career marathoning. Miracle is a G1 winner at both 10f and 16f. In 3 tries at 10 the horse was two ticks off a stakes record, apparently dumped his rider right out of the gate, and ran an odd midpack race in a DelPenn restricted stake. With such a range of past performances, no way to tell which Miracle will show up in this race. 17-1 odds make a small wager look like a reasonable decision.
The final DelPenn entrant is Seraphic, running for the Jmb stable. The 5yo Pulpit son is 18-1 on the morning line, and is ridden by H Popson, who is having a decent year winning but hasn’t done much to help his ITM rate. Like Miracle To Me Seraphic has been mostly running in marathons and has several stakes wins in the long category. His lone start at 10f was a very good second in the DelPenn version of the Breeders Bowl Classic last year to beat some excellent horses. Seraphic doesn’t need to be on the lead, but has the capability to go out and take it if the opportunity presents. Big problem is he has a tendency to be passed in the stretch.
The winning residency:
I have to call this one for the GR Simsters‘ quintet. All five are capable of winning alone and should team up to take at least 3 of the top 5 placings including the win. DelPenn’s mighty five are surely good, but there are holes to be exploited. Minnesota’s team isn’t as deep as they must have hoped, but they still have a solid shot from Ataun at least.