Smackdown 10f 3yo colts
The 10 furlong race over dirt for 3yos, the classiest distance of them all, and a classy horse is the early favourite, Fu Ming, a horse I had the privilege to see in his last race in Norway, where he was the favourite, but only finished 3rd, but let’s take a look at the field:
#1 THANKSBB(KY) 18/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=10938
12 Races – 3 Wins – 108,768$
The horse has been switched back and forth between dirt and turf, usually producing better results on dirt. He won a 10f ALW last time out, clocking a nice 100 speed number. He raced only in ALW Company so far, this owner restricted Stakes race looks very tough for him, but by reproducing his last effort, and perhaps even getting better by facing better class, he can be dangerous. However the odds tell the story, very unconsistent performer likely to be found in the second half of the field.
#2 HOOKAH(KY) 8/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=55818
11 races – 4 Wins – 489,630$
A very good horse usually with a big question mark, his last race was actually his worst in his career finishing 12th in a Group 3 in Germany 3 weeks ago. He came there as one of the favourites, having won the Delpenn Derby and winning a 9f Stakes afterwards. He needs to show the recent race was just a fluke, and if he can perform at his best should handle the 10f easily and finish in the Top 3.
#3 FU MING(KY) 4/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=149963
11 Races – 6 Wins – 275,810$
A lot of question marks are with the race favourite, the biggest of them likely the question, if he can stay 10 furlongs, his wins all have come at a mile, and his only try at 9f, he was caugth on the stretch, just after taking the lead with 1f to go. It has to be seen how he handles the longer distance. From a class standpoint he should be able to win the race, finishing 2nd and 3rd in Grade 2s last time out. The Fusaichi Pegasus colt will have a lot to proof for his connections today.
#4 ROCKPORT HARBOR C(KY) 14/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=143992
11 Races – 4 Wins – 80,817$
A step up in class from ALWs, that actually makes sense, he won his last 2 races in very good style, and has proven he can hit 100, so should perform good here, his first try at 10f, but from his races at 9.5f, he should look even better with the added half furlong. Rockport Harbour is a very young sire, who has already produced 2 stakes winners, he may be the third soon, but I think today will be 1 or 2 races too early for him, but I see him in the Top 5, if he can step up a little.
#5 SEVEN STRIKES(KY) 12/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=55520
16 Races – 2 Wins – 268,830$
A very well travelled horse, still looking for his best distance and surface, the trip over turf proofed nothing, and was a flopped experiment, he finished a solid 5th in Germany last time out, but according to this form numbers, he will find it tough to stay in this field. Never tried 10f, and big question marks, if he can stay or even perform better with the added furlong, just an outsider from my point of view.
#6 MR. BLUE(KY) 28/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=145011
11 Races – 1 Win – 61,326$
After winning his maiden the horse was thrown into 2 of the triple crown races of the GR Simsters residency,
He settled just outside the Top 3 in both races, but his speed suggests, he prefered 12f, and he will be outside the Top 3 once again, but even further back this time, with speed numbers in the mid 90s he will find it tough to beat more than 2 or 3 horses home in this field, needs to improve or face the verdict.
#7 THE VEGAS KID(FR) 31/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=84351
8 Races – 2 Wins – 50,880$
A lightly raced Trempolino colt, that doesn’t look quite ready to tackle the big stage, looked solid in winning a 10f ALW last time out, but with a 97 he will find it tough to compete here. However race watchers told me he looked not ridden flat out, and had reserves crossing the line, so he will have to show his best today. Has lots of room for improvement, but will need even more than that to finish in the Top 3.
#8 RHONE(KY) 18/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=113420
10 Races – 3 Wins – 485,560$
A lot of his history happened in Delpenn Races, won the Delpenn Bluegrass, but faced a tough loss to Hookah in the Delpenn Derby, where he could only finish fifth, which should point to a heavy defeat today. He tried to rebound in an easy 8.5f ALW, but never got into the race, looks rather unprepared, and will be a longshot. Needs to proof he can stay 10f, and reverse form with Hookah, which I doubt will happen.
#9 ROCK AND FIRE(KY) 14/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=35162
9 Races – 3 Wins – 449,339$
The GR Simsters Bluegrass winner looks the real deal, he should handle the 10f well, as he showed over 9.5f, with his 100 speed number he could get into the mix, but he has to show, that his recent 2 outings are his real level. Had a tough start to his career, but finsihing 2nd in a Group 2 and the GR simsters Bluegrass win make him look much better than his 14/1 odds, could finish in the Top 5.
#10 SHETAN(KY) 9/2
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=20695
10 Races – 3 Wins – 529,980$
Shetan tackled the Triple Crown staying rigth in it till the last leg, and his Belmont 3rd place finsih makes him the 2nd fav today, I believe he should bet he favourite, as he has proven he can stay longer distances, and his 5th place in the Bluegrass Derby has shown he can compete with the best 3yr olds this season. The Storm cat x Fusaichi Pegasus is my pick to win this race, he can likely run a nice speed above 100, and showed a great form in the Triple Crown.
#11 WELL GROOMED(KY) 6/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=145315
11 Races – 2 Wins – 279,950$
Finsihed 6th in the New Yorker, and has a nice 2nd place in the Grade 1 Lonesome Cowboy Bert special, enough recommendation to get a 6/1 shot from the bookies, likely to be better at 10f, than in his recent outing at 12f, the question will be, if he can reverse form with Shetan, I don’t think so, but another safe pick to run inside the Top 3, and finish with a speed mark of 100+
#12 GHOSTRATTY(KY) 13/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=149208
13 Races – 3 Wins – 87,329$
A 13/1 shot is even nice for this horse, has proven to be a good 1 mile ALW horse, he likely can’t stay 10f, and will even fail to get the early lead, a very tough race, his 2 tries at 9.5f saw him fading towards the end if the races. Might have a chance, if the race was 1 mile, it’s 1 mile and a quarter, enough said.
#13 SEVEN MORE DAYS(KY) 20/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=71911
5 Races – 3 Wins – 58,180$
Having an impressive win% of 75% on dirt may sound impressive, but this very lightly races Giant’s Causeaway colt will find trouble in this field, the question is, will the race be trouble to him, or will he trouble the contenders. He has shown some very nice ALW wins over 9.5f, and is likely to be even a tap better at 10f, but he still has to show a 100+ speed number, the race may come to early, or the step up in class may be to high, you see, lots of questions, you shouldn’t ask before a race of this importance.
#14 BENEDICTION(IRE) 14/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=148485
9 races – 4 Wins – 117, 705$
Looking at his numbers may lead you in trouble, looking at his dirt numbers, and you see he is much more than a 14/1 shot, he recorded a field best 108 last time out over 10f in an ALW race. It was actually his first try at dirt, and the way he won it, make him look like on of the favourites. The question remains, can he reproduce it in a stakes quality field. The royal breeding by Sadler’s wells suggests yes, the ability over dirt adding Mr. Prospector as the Dam’s Sire increases, I think he can nearly repeat his speed, but a classy horse like Shetan may use his experience to beat him.
#15 WSOP(KY) 13/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=135084
12 Races – 4 Wins – 131,524$
My favourite name in the field, at the time of his poker counter part being played,…, well not enough to win a horse race. He finished 2nd in the Delpenn Derby to Hookah, and finished 2nd in a turf try last time out, not likely he’ll finish 2nd again, I see at least 4 or 5 horses better than him. I just like the name too much, to write anything even worse, may the poker gods be with him, I fear the horse racing gods are not with him in this race.
To sum it up, I go with Shetan ahead of Benediction, with Hookah or a surprising ALW horse taking 3rd.