Lots of Talent in Fillies Turf Mile

This week New York sees the GR Simsters conduct several of their owner restricted stakes events. The race we cover here, the Three Year Old Fillies Turf Mile makes almost a mockery of the term “owner restricted stakes”. Many far more highly classified contests draw far less competitive fields that that lining up here, as can be evidenced by the sheer number of highly ranked fillies taking part. The favorite for the event, Otto Tribute, is rated number two in her class, and the depth continues with six of the runners ranked in the top thirty. The turf track is rated firm for this half million dollar feature, so, without further ado, we’ll look at the market before running through the field in betting order

The early market this week is:

9/2 – Otto Tribute

5/1 – Native Mambo

8/1 – Sleven’s The Name

9/1 – Inclusive, The Dark Mark

10/1 – Flowerats

11/1 – Starrahy Eyed

12/1 – Vex

14/1 – Smooth Flow

15/1 – Best There Is, Happens In Vegas

18/1 – Whip It Wood

19/1 – Barbs Caramel

20/1 – Gambia

25/1 – Oneforthebabe

Looking through the field in betting order:

9/2 – Otto Tribute – (Maria’s Mon – Fumascus (Fusaichi Pegasus / Northern Dancer)) – # 15 – Not a lot to say really. She’s earned her position at the top of the market, and if anything, would still be attractive betting at a shorter quote. Unbeaten in nine runs on the grass, her only defeat coming at her second run, on the other stuff, she’s the one they need to beat. This is a super field, full of talented fillies, but their connections all have one thing in common. When they sit down to work out tactics, they will formulate their ideas around beating this runner, whereas Shadowclaw can simply instruct Lawton to let the filly run her usual race.

5/1 – Native Mambo – (El Prado – Icy Mambo (Kingmambo / Exclusive Native)) – # 12 – The 106 speed figure registered in her most recent run is the highest figure yet recorded by any runner in this race, making her the obvious main danger to the favorite. Her last two runs, when third, then second in Grade 1 features, would ordinarily set her up as a moral when dropping back to restricted ungraded competition. But as we’ve already discussed, this is not a restricted ungraded field. There’s a bit of early pace drawn inside her, so she won’t have it all her way in her quest to lead from the wide gate, but if she wins the early battle, Caliracing can be sure she’ll give a great sight and prove tough to run down.

8/1 – Sleven’s The Name – (El Prado – Liquored Up Frog (Lear Fan / Ide))  – # 14 – The three top chances in the market are all drawn out wide, virtually nullifying any disadvantage from that perspective. Two starts back she won a GR Simsters restricted race over these conditions, stopping the clock in 1.35 dead. That’s probably only a length or two shy of the likely requirement for the winner of this weeks challenge. Only the two above her in the market can also boast consecutive triple digit speed ratings coming into this, underlining her consistency and maturity. This Willrome trained filly has been running solid, if non-winning, races at the graded level, and her CV includes a couple of near misses at Grade 1 level. She needs a tad of luck early to secure a position, and if she gets it she shouldn’t go home empty handed.

9/1 – Inclusive – (Include – Blushing At War (Rahy / Lord At War)) – # 3 – She hasn’t missed the podium in a dozen starts, and that includes one at the higher Grade 3 level. This is a far superior bunch to those she’s been lining up against recently, but as she’s done nothing wrong, and she’s regularly improving her times, there’s no reason to suggest she’ll have any trouble measuring up at a higher standard. The barrier is ideal. The filly immediately inside will jump very smartly, allowing this one to take her preferred sit just off the pace, either on the rail or one wide. She faded at her only previous try at the mile, but as that was in her debut run, it would pay to ignore that stat. Rlogan can expect yet another competitive effort from this filly.

9/1 – The Dark Mark – (Montjeu / Sharpen Up / Grey Dawn II) – # 4 – With only the eight starts, and a CV which includes a Grade 1 second, there’s plenty to like about her chances here. Her last two runs are far better than they look at first glance, being the only two unplaced runs of her career. She was clearly unsuited by the additional half mile last start, whereas she was making good ground at the end of the 1000 Guineas, with two of those who finished ahead of her and lining up again, both going around at significantly shorter prices. She won’t get caught up in any early rush and Sunshine87 can be confident the filly will be motoring home late

10/1 – Flowerats – (Flower Alley / Indian Ridge / Shirley Heights) – # 8 – This filly presents something of an enigma, which must be causing the stable untold frustration. She’s proven desperately unlucky, finishing second in black type company at each of her last three, and seeming to indicate she needs further. However, her raw stats seem to contradict that thought, as she’s only one from six in route attempts. As that one win was a Grade 1 World Cup triumph, it may be time to try yet again. With all her five victories coming at her first five runs, it’s impossible to be overly confident after nine runs without greeting the judge, but the Darnath2 filly has established her class in that Grade 1 victory, and on that score alone she deserves plenty of respect.

11/1 – Starrahy Eyed – (Rahy  – Star Out Of Men (Danzig / Graustark)) – # 10 – The Pegasus filly has selected a tough assignment in her quest to test new waters. The game’s top ranked sprinting filly, courtesy of seven black type wins including at Grade 1 and Grade 2 level, she must be taken on trust a bit as she looks to extend her distance range with this first trip at the mile. There’s really no reason to suggest that she won’t measure up, but the quality of opposition which have already proved themselves capable of seeing out the distance, indicates that she has a question to answer. Obviously if the race were half a furlong shorter, you wouldn’t be getting these juicy odds, so if you like her, a solid wager may turn out to be a most wise investment.

12/1 – Vex – (Dynaformer  – Causing Trouble (Giant’s Causeway / Seeking The Gold)) – # 6 – This filly may well be subject to a plunge when the on course markets open. On the strength of her massive improvement in a very short career, she looks to be the most likely to be able to find that ‘something extra’ which may be needed to topple the favorites. Desperado4 identified her as a miler early on, deciding to begin her career over this trip. She may have simply lacked a bit of experience there, not quite seeing the journey out. That ‘is it too far?’ question has obviously dissuaded the top jockeys from seeking the ride, but if she’s now found that extra half length, she proved last start she can run fast enough, and could be the value bet in this field.

14/1 – Smooth Flow – (Vindication / Deputy Minister / Fappiano) – # 5 – She’s only stepping up from an allowance to an owner restricted stake. That’s the good news. The bad news is that many of her opponents are stepping down from the top events at the graded level. Without a triple digit speed rating to show from thirteen starts, along with the lack of high level experience (19^th of 20 in a restricted stake is hardly high level experience), I find it hard to give her much hope in this. The Domedriver filly was beaten in a four horse allowance last time out. This is much harder

15/1 – Best There Is – (King’s Best  – SDFSA (Diesis / Sadler’s Wells)) – # 9 – Another value runner from the Desperado barns. It’s easy to throw out the last run as too far, so that leaves a career of four wins and five seconds from nine runs. Not shabby at all. Two of those seconds came against Grade 1 opponents. Of course the bad news is that both those races were won by Otto Tribute. When she ran second in the 1000 guineas, she finished ahead of Native Mambo, who runs around here at one third the odds of this filly. The oddsmakers have clearly taken their eyes off the ball with this one. I can’t see her turning the tables, but she’s a definite inclusion in the exotic bets.

15/1 – Happens In Vegas – (Cacique  – La Vita E Bella (Deputy Minister / Unbridled)) – # 13 – This Texasace filly has never missed the board in her ten race career, but has recently developed a serious case of seconditis. Four seconds in a row would normally indicate that she’s due for a change of luck, but as two of those placings came in very small allowance fields, it’s hard to be enthusiastic about that change of luck coming against this star studded opposition. She’s another without a triple digit speed rating to her credit and, although I’ve no doubt she’ll run her usual honest race, she faces too many better fillies to look a serious winning chance

18/1 – Whip It Wood – (Stormin Fever  – Forest of Angels (Woodman / Halo)) – # 2 – Ldstable’s handy filly drops back a bit in distance and takes a significant leap in competition level here. Again, she’s another who can best be described as very honest. With only eight runs under her belt, there’s still the possibility that she may be able to make the quantum leap needed, but to be fair she seems to have just too many better performed opponents to be rated a genuine chance. It will be interesting to see if she can hold out the early speedster drawn wider, but I doubt she can hold out the closers.

19/1 – Barbs Caramel – (Red Bullet – Doctor Flag (Gulch / Secretariat)) – # 1 – Another extremely honest filly who always manages to run into something a bit better on the day. In each of her last three, she’s been finishing the race off nicely, albeit in worryingly small fields, and she wasn’t disgraced in her only prior attempt at the mile, finishing second, on that occasion against a handy field. The inside barrier should allow her to get a comfortable run just off the pace. She needs a massive personal best to threaten some established stars, but with a bit of luck in running the 5heffsbarn filly could run a far better race than her price would indicate

20/1 – Gambia – (Unbridled’s Song / Broad Brush / Secretariat) – # 7 – Another entrant from Texasace. She may have crept in under the radar a bit here. With four wins from eight, there’s nothing wrong with her strike rate, and her most recent run indicated that she could still have some upside. She stopped the clock in 1.35.6 in that most recent stakes race. That won’t be fast enough for this, but she added a dozen points to her previous best speed rating in that effort, and if she can find a bit more, she may put herself into the picture. A win could only be described as a boilover, but a good run will come as no surprise. Bettors looking for value could have a lot of fun with an across the board ticket.

25/1 – Oneforthebabe – (Kingmambo / A.P. Indy / Buckpasser) – # 11 – May be a little unfortunate to earn the outsider tag, given that she’s won her last three, all allowances at this track and over this surface and distance. Of course the market has been influenced by the times she’s posted in those wins. A best of 1.36.2 is probably seven or so lengths shy of this week’s requirement. With nothing even close to triple digits on the formpage it’s impossible to give her a winning chance, but she must know every inch of the track, she won’t be suffering travel fatigue, and supporters of the Doctahg barn will get plenty of value on their tickets

Summary: It’s hard to see the favorite getting beaten. Of course, she’s got to lose one day, but I’m not brave (or silly) enough to call it this week. If she gets home as expected, that $11 dividend is going to look like a gift. If Otto Tribute fails to greet the judge, then the race is wide open. Native Mambo has chased her home a couple of times, and has the best credentials for turning the tables. Sleven’s The Name is racing in career best form under these conditions. Inclusive doesn’t know how to run a bad race. The Dark Mark will appreciate the drop in distance. Flowerats is a worry, needing to recapture that winning feeling, but she proven she has class. Starrahy Eyed didn’t get to the top of the sprinting ranks without plenty of talent. Vex has heaps of untapped potential. Smooth Flow is knocking on the door of a triple digit effort. Best There Is has been unfairly penalized for one ordinary run under very different conditions. Happens In Vegas has run second at both route attempts. Whip It Wood steps up in class, but has shown plenty at the lower level. Barbs Caramel has a bucket full of near misses in black type races. Gambia looks to have plenty of upside and represents good value, while Oneforthebabe lines up trying to extend the winning streak to four.

Selections:

Otto Tribute – No comment necessary.

Best There Is – The bookmakers are on drugs.

Starrahy Eyed – If she gets the mile, she’s as good as anything.