Route Run for Girls in SMACKDOWN

Smackdown is now upon us, and I’m not talking wrestling. Well, maybe in there will be some of that as a large field of fillies and mares will use their best maneuvers to get to the wire first. The ninth race down in Florida features 17 of the best going a mile and a half, each one looking for this years bragging rights that go to the champion.

1. Nancy Boots 15-1
Nancy has been putting in several good races lately, finishing in the top two spots in each of her last 4 races, however, each of these came in against allowance company. The distance suits her well, but her last four stake races did not have favorable results. She will need to put a sleeper hold on the rest of the field to take this event.

2. The Trident 10-1
The Trident returns to the dirt after putting in two races, with mixed results, on the turf. The Trident’s last 10 races on the dirt, all routes, resulted in only 1st and 2nd place finishes. She put in a top speed of 115 back in October in the Breeder’s Bowl going 12f, a huge upset. She is very capable of beating this group and will be running near the front, thus avoiding any traffic problems. Getting jockey Gardner in the saddle will be a help.

3. A P Princess 12-1
AP Princess will most likely run in the middle of the pack, and runs the risk of getting caught up in some congestion. She is rather consistant, with a record of 24-7-6-5 going in routes. Although consistant, she has only found the winners circle once in her last 8 outings. She also gets Ferguson aboard, who has won only 3 races in 60 mounts. I don’t see a winning combination here.

4. CSI Super 11-1
Simply put, CSI Super seems to have lost her form. She has been off the board in four of her last five races. CSI Super put in a in a Vermont is 4 lovers 11f event with a speed rating of 108 (career best). She fares much better when she is on the lead. If she is not on the lead by the 3/4 pole, she won’t be seen at the wire. Jockey Buchta is an excellent draw and maybe he straighten out some of the woes she has seen recently.

5. Frozen Four 15-1
An old favorite of mine, but everytime I pick her, she doesn’t come through. So I won’t jinx her this time. She has a route record of 29-10-6-4 and has the talent to run on the lead or attack from the rear. In this huge field, I think I’d go for the front end run. Her last outing she came from 18 lengths down at the half to take second by 5.

6. Disasterpiece 18-1
A lightly raced 4-year old has hit the board in 9 of 11 races, with 5 trips to the winners circle. She comes in with a 3-race win streak, most recently winning a 10f stakes race in 104. That was her first stake outing and she jumps up to this Grade 1 event. She may find herself outclassed by this group as she steps up a notch or two in distance.

7. Dance of Death 11-1
Dance of Death will be running in the middle of the field and has hit the board in a respectible 14 of 20 starts. She has not had much success in the graded level, finishing 3rd once in four outings. It’s hard to see this one taking the race in this ring of contenders. However, on the plus side, she has been scoring consistant speeds of 100 (throwing out last on off track). She jumps up in distance and that adds another concern.

8. Desperado’s Mambo 9-1
Desperado has won 10 of 23 route starts, something any owner would love to tout. She has had her struggles going 12f for some reason. In her last 7 outings, she has only won once at this distance. She has won recent races at 11f and 14f, so I’m not sure why 12f gives such headaches. Anyways, she’ll be in the middle of the pack, possible towards the rear of it, and has the talent to close the gap, assuming the gap isin’t too large.

9. Dynamic 29-1
The most experienced horse in the race comes in with 17 victories in 47 career starts. She is a slow starter and is often seen at the rear of the field. She does close hard and can make up 10 lengths entering the final turn. She has only scored a handful of speeds of 100 or more in her career and this in one race she will need to pull out one.

10. Fusaichi Krissy 10-1
Fusaichi Krissy is hard to ignore, hitting the board in 21 of 28 route starts, amassing 12 victories. She comes off a decent third in the Denied Special, where she had to claw her way from 10 back to miss by 3, posting a speed of 105. While she shows consistancy, she has only won two races in the past year (10 starts). Additionally, she has only one career graded stakes victory also in 10 starts. She may not win this, but she does factor in with the exotic wagers.

11. Gals Gone West 15-1
Gals Gone West has some things going for her, as well as some against her. First, she loves the route, as reflected in her record of 17-8-2-4. She also likes to run 12f, with a record of 5-2-1-1. Going against her are the graded stake outings. Her last graded outing may be thrown out, as it was at 16f and may have been outside her reach. She had two others going 12f. One was a dismal 9th, the other an impressive 2nd. She’s capable of popping speeds over 100 and is worth a look.

12. The Antidote 10-1
The Antidote makes her debut into Graded racing here, and comes in with a 3-race win streak. She has posted nice speeds of 100+ in 5 of last 6 races. She jumps up a notch in distance off her last, which she won with ease, and the added distance should not be too concerning. She could be the one who surprises.

13. Blinding 15-1
This mare comes in with an impressive route record of 17-9-3-3. She’s coming off a win against stakes that she won easily by 6 lenghts in a speed of 103. She picks up McAfee in the saddle, and I’m afraid that will diminish her chances to find the winner’s circle. This can be a case where the horse teaches the jockey a few lessons.

14. SO’K 17-1
SO’K has a Battle Royale to conted with here. She has been racing well in stakes of late, and returns to the graded level where she has had no success. Additionally, she rarely cracks the 100-level in speed ratings, and I believe the winner of this event will need a minimum speed of 100 to be successful. I don’t see SO’K walking off with this one.

15. Otto Overmatched 22-1
Much of Otto’s success lately has been in allowance and stake races. She has only one race, 16f, against stakes that didn’t go to well. Her last two outings were in speeds of 100 and 103. She’ll have to improve off of that, to capture the title here. I would like to see more experience in stakes/graded competition first before backing support.

16. War in Heaven 10-1
In May, War put in a heck of a race at 9.5f, charging hard late to win the race in a speed charted at 107. She followed that up in the Denied Special with a disappointing 11th, in a speed of 99. She’s the kind that is dangerous when she’s hot. It is hard to tell when she is, but I think we will see a rebound from her here. She is consistant (ITM 18 of 25 routes).

17. Tough as Steel 8-1
Tough as Steel won her first race last time out since last September and did so decisively. She won the Oak Brunette Special in a speed of 106 (for 11f) by an easy 6 lengths. She has been consistantly scoring speeds over 100 in 9 of her last 10 races. Although she didnt hit the board much in those starts, her speeds are good enough to be a factor in this race and she should be considered.

Very few horses in this field would surpise me if they won this race. I like The Trident as my top selection. She has put in a great streak of 1st and 2nds recently and I can see her resuming that form.

War in Heaven looks to be in a good spot to return to normal form. She had a couple of recent races where she faltered against tougher fields. She has a chance to rebound here.

Tough as Steel takes my third spot. She should score another speed of 100, and if shes tough enough, she can take the winners belt here!