Positively Smackdown
PP1 – No Love Bed – Cothill (Minnesota) – I Wimpy – 24/1
Not For Love x Ziadaco Bed (Dixieland Band x Cat Thief) : Out of an F-ranked sprinting he-mare, winner of four NMCOS, out of the fairly decent mare Curly Fries (8x Stakes ITM). Sire, without a Graded winner in the last five seasons, can get precocious 2yos and has a 23.5 win% with this year’s crop.
Form – 1 / High SP = 70 : Beat a pair of well bred debutants when running out a nose winner on her first start six weeks back (second won a MSW last week). Huge doubt she’ll be good enough to mix it with this bunch at this point in her career.
PP2 – Annabelle – Black Label (DelPenn) – Z Wylde – 15/1
Cherokee Run x Tequila Shooter (Aldebaran x Dixieland Band) : Second foal, half sister to a 3yo Allowance/maiden winner. Dam, B-ranked turf sprinting 2006 Equinics champion, five time Graded winner (including two G1’s) and multiple Listed Stakes winner (two on dirt as a 2yo). Sire, dirt/sprint influence, has had a good start to this year’s campaign with a 25.0 win% for his youngsters.
Form – 1 / High SP = 77 : Burst out of the gates and led from start to finish when the impressive winner of her debut in a 6f Maiden at Germany seven weeks ago. She would have a huge chance if not suffering any ill effects from the trip over from Europe, but that globetrotting journey could possibly take a bit of the sting out of her. Respected.
PP3 – Babelicus – Falcon12 (Minnesota) – H Ross – 19/1
Brahms x Cheesy Slew (Pentelicus x Seattle Slew) : Dam four time Stakes winner on dirt (8-14f), hasn’t produced anything of note before. Solid dirt sprint sire, has produced five Graded winners since 2004 (two out of a Pentelicus mare), has made a slow start to 2008 with a 6.3 win% for his 2yos and only one winner.
Form – 1116 / High SP = 82 : Number one ranked juvenile filly after winning her last three including a 5.5f G2 LTO (Makes A Positive 3rd and Bloodflowers 5th). She has the best form of all these runners, is blessed with bags of speed and must have a massive chance with the track’s leading jockey aboard. Similar profile to last year’s winner Dehere That.
PP4 – Seismic Activity – Marmac (Minnesota) – I Dozier – 22/1
Aptitude x Alybitty (Alysheba x Cox’s Ridge) : Half sister to the12f Stakes winner Electric Eye and multiple Allowance winner High Style. E-ranked dam, retired prematurely after winning three out of five career races including a 10f Stakes. Sire, equally capable of getting Graded sprinters and routers, has a 21.1 win% for the year.
Form – 1234 / High SP = 79: Progressive profile in 6f maidens, finally getting off the mark at the fourth attempt when posting a good time LTO. One of the most experienced of the field, the strong gallop should play to her strengths and she could be a danger over what should be a more suitable distance.
PP5 – Hope Is Born – Jessimare (GRSimsters) – T Tyson – 9/1
Rock Hard Ten x Talia’s Fate (Sadler’s Wells x Alydar) : Related to a 2yo Allowance winner. Well-bred dam only raced 13 times, winning once. Third season sire, quickly establishing himself with 9 Graded winners over the last three years, has a 35.9 win% with this season’s juveniles.
Form – 12 / High SP = 75 : Benefited from experience and an extra furlong when winning on her second start over 6f at Nebraska last month. Impossible to judge how much she’ll improve on that last run but she should be suited to this extra ground and, even though some of these fillies have won more competitive maidens in better style, she is one for the shortlist.
PP6 – Mambo N Msslew – Polandfarm – M Kelly – 7/1
Kingmambo x Ms Slew (Seattle Slew x Mr. Prospector) : Three parts sister to dual G1 winning 2yo sprinter Thanxmsslew and half sibling to two other fairly good fillies. B-ranked dam, unbeaten in two starts as a juvenile, won a Grade 1,2 and 3 as a 3yo (dirt 8f) and was a twelve-time Listed winner in total. Very good sire, produces solid middle distance types on either surface, has had 32 Graded winners since 2004.
Form – 21 / High SP = 69 : Looked like a filly with masses of scope for improvement when scoring at the first time of asking back in March. Firm favourite but looked in need of more ground when disappointingly beaten in a 5.5f Allowance five weeks later. She should come on a bit for that last run and get involved here over a distance she should find much more to her liking.
PP7 – Go Go Kristy Joe – Winterfell (GRSimsters) – Pe Henderson – 9/1
More Than Ready x Cosmahmoud (Danehill x El Gran Senor) : Dam raced 11 times, winning two dirt sprints. Sire, noted for producing dirt sprinters, has fathered four Graded winners over the past five years and has a 26.5 win% with his 2008 2yo crop.
Form – 41 / High SP = 71 : Sprinted clear down the stretch when winning on her first start back in March in a decent race for that time of year (beat a few subsequent winners including Cool Indy’s conqueror Sexy Devil). Failed to build on that hugely promising debut, eight weeks later, when a one paced 4th in a Stakes race behind the now number two ranked filly. She has a little bit to find on the clock with a few of these and will have to improve on her last run but she couldn’t be completely discounted.
PP8 – Bloodflowers – Winterfell (GRSimsters) – B Ironside – 9/1
Posse x Pro Cat (Storm Cat x Mr. Prospector) : From high class family and related to numerous winners. Half sister to retired Breeders Bowl Juvenile filly winner Pro Dubai and this season’s G1 Sand Castle Derby winner Pro Mon (3yo). Dam only raced four times. Sire, dirt influence without a Graded winner since 2005, has a 14.8 win% for his 2yos this year.
Form – 512 / High SP = 73 : Took a while to hit top gear when the narrow winner of a small seven runner MSW on her second start over 5.5f. Upped in class LTO for a G2 over the same distance, she was outpaced through the early stages but slowly began to gain ground towards the end and finished a promising 5th (5+l behind Babelicus). She should be able to act over a stiff 7f at this time of year but, given her pedigree, it’s likely she’ll be seen in an even better light when tackling more ground further on into the season.
PP9 – Twelve By Five – Super (DelPenn) – T J Cox – 9/1
Storm Cat x Exile On Main St (Thunder Gulch x Danehill) : First offspring of a multiple Graded winner at a mile on dirt (2xG1’s) with $1.4M lifetime earnings. Top class sire, with a 38.6 win% from this years 2yos, has had 37 Graded winners over the past five seasons and already has a G2 winning juvenile this term.
Form – 1 / High SP = 72 : Fulfilled high expectations when victorious on her only start, seven weeks ago over 5f, in a race that has yet to throw out any other winners. Certainly bred to be a good filly, it’s difficult to judge her on that sole run and the lack of experience could go against her here.
PP10 – Makes A Positive – Oneworld (Minnesota) – Z Wango – 19/1
Broken Vow x ThatswhatIlike (Exploit x Rahy) : First foal from a D-ranked dam that was a triple Stakes winning turf sprinter as a 2yo. Sire, with no Graded winners in the last five years and more renowned for his routers, has a 19.2 win% with his youngsters this season.
Form – 3117 / High SP = 78 : Improved massively from her debut to land a Maiden at New Jersey and then an Allowance in New York five weeks later. She wasn’t far behind Babelicus when third in a G2 over 5.5f LTO where she came from near last and was making up ground well into the final furlong. This deep closer should enjoy the extra distance and will benefit from the likely strong gallop so watch for her coming late and fast.
PP11 – Her Lights – Marmac (Minnesota) – A Thompson – 15/1
In Excess x Elf Shoot (El Prado x Miswaki) : Half sister to a Stakes placed turf router. Dam below average G-ranked turf runner. Sire, with only one Graded winner in the last five years, does equally as well with runners on dirt as turf but has only one winner from six 2yos this year (16.7%).
Form – 1 / High SP = 73 : Only raced once, winning an $8k MSW at New Mexico six weeks ago (second has won since). She quickly pulled clear of the field in that last run but this race is much tougher and it will be a surprise if she can improve enough to trouble some of these more experienced rivals. Place prospects at best.
PP12 – Cool Indy – Given (GRSimsters) – D Silver – 6/1JtFav
A.P. Indy x Fumascus (Fusaichi Pegasus x Northern Dancer) : Half sister to this years 1000 Guineas winner Otto Tribute, high-class 2/3yo (by Maria’s Mon) unbeaten in 9 turf starts; also half sister to Fu Fu Mascus (5yo) who was G3 placed as a 2yo and winner of this exact Smackdown race in 2005. Dam was B-ranked 8.5f G2 winner. Leading sire, more renowned for producing routers, can get speedy 2yos at this time of year.
Form – 21 / High SP = 75 : Created a good impression when winning on her debut over 6f at Arkansas in April. Looked like confirming favouritism in an Allowance over the same course and distance seven weeks later, only to be headed on the line (winner Sexy Devil 8th in a G2 last week). Sure to appreciate this 7f but she will have to show more guts and determination than she did LTO if she is to be involved in the finish here.
PP13 – Persecution – Black Label (DelPenn) – I Hartz – 13/1
Forest Danger x I’m On Fire (Forty Niner x Secretariat) : Half sister to the improving 4yo Stakes placed mare Black Mass Reverends (6f). Well-bred F-ranked dam was a multiple Allowance winner on turf at around a mile. Third season sire, so far without a Graded winner and only two Listed winners (one out of a Forty Niner mare), has an 18.8% win rate with this seasons 2yos.
Form – 13 / High SP = 72 : Third, behind a pair of previous winners, in a 5.5f Allowance on her racecourse debut in what was effectively a three runner affair (not far behind Mambo N Msslew). Improved on that first run and appreciated the drop into Maiden company when stepped up to 6f, four weeks later, where she ground out a narrow win by a head. Without looking particularly quick on either of those occasions, she looks set to struggle here.
PP14 – Whiro – Given (GRSimsters) – C O’Hara – 6/1JtFav
A.P. Indy x Mother Of Dragons (Storm Cat x Mr. Prospector) : Full sister to the G3 and triple Stakes winning 5yo mare Rakharo (7-8.5f) and half sibling to two other decent Listed runners. Dam was an E-ranked dirt sprinter. Sire, one of the best in the business, has a 35.6 win% with this year’s 2yos.
Form – 12 / High SP = 78 : Raced only on an off track. Turned over by a race fit rival on her debut but overcame that with a clear cut front running victory LTO. No reason to suggest she won’t perform with a sounder surface underfoot and she looks ready to run a big race.
PP15 – Flyinginabluedream – Super (DelPenn) – H Popson – 17/1
Mineshaft x Crystal Planet (Danzig x Seattle Slew) : Out of a poor performing but well bred G-ranked he-mare (out of the Stakes winning sprinter Slew’s Bid). Top class sire, more renowned for producing routers, can get high quality juveniles and has a 32.5 win% with this year’s offspring
Form – 1 / High SP = 67 : Never looked like getting beaten when comfortably scoring on her debut in a RODOTS race over 6f in Europe towards the beginning of May. That race has yet to throw up any winners and, whilst she won it in stylish fashion, it would take a spectacular effort for her to improve enough to hit the board here.
Summary
Terribly difficult race to assess and there is a case to be made for almost all of these runners. The bookmakers have clearly ignored all previous form and went for pedigree, so we can overlook the odds when trying to find the winner.
An interesting statistic of the last three runnings of this event is that all three winners have had at least three starts or more prior to the race. Applying that logic here (which appears to be what the track’s top three jockeys have also done), we can eliminate much of the field and narrow them down to four; Babelicus, Seismic Activity, Makes A Positive and Bloodflowers.
Three of those four all contested the same Grade 2 LTO but those placings could be reversed over this extra distance. Babelicus is the obvious choice, having had a similar preparation for this race as last year’s winner Dehere That, however she looks an out an out speedball and may not be as effective over this trip.
Bloodflowers, related to fillies that have excelled over a mile and further, is bound to be finishing fast but she may lack a bit of the tactical speed of some of these rivals which could be vital in a race of this nature.
The selection is Makes A Positive who is by no means the best-bred filly in the line-up. She will benefit from what is likely to be a frantic early pace and the race could be set up perfectly for her.
1- Makes A Positive
2- Bloodflowers
3- Babelicus