A Dozen Chances in Fillies Dirt Mile
The now well established tradition of Smackdown continues this week with the fourth running of this momentous day. Proudly sponsored by GR Simsters, Smackdown has quickly grown into one of the sim’s feature race days. Race 12 on the
Last year, the initial running of this race, the Three Year Old Fillies Dirt Mile, in
The inside gate holds Schitzngiggle, coming off the most impressive race of her career thus far, when she accounted for an ungraded field over this journey in Oregon five weeks ago, stopping the clock at 1.35 dead. Most of the talented three year olds tend to step up their efforts at this time of year, and this filly has been no exception, registering her first triple digit speed rating at her most recent racetrack appearance. Looking from the class angle, she’s established herself at the Graded level with a bold effort when third in G2-Louisiana Oaks in March. Uncharacteristically, at her next run, she was slowly away and never in the hunt in the G1-The Senorita, won by Sensible. That was the only time on dirt where she wasn’t the pacesetter, and her dismal result that day leaves little doubt that she’ll be looking to dictate terms again this week. Schitzngiggle is a homebred daughter of Gone West / Northern Dancer / Buckpasser, bred and trained by Peeps3. Connections could not possibly have been any happier with the barrier draw, as the inside gate gives her the best opportunity to withstand the likely early challenges from Kornsnake, drawn wide in 8, and Bathsheba II, wider still in 10. While jockeys on the swopers will be hoping for a bloodbath up front, stable followers will be more than happy to take the odds on offer, and she shapes as a likely shortener in the market as the race gets closer.
From stall 2 jumps Vheissu, lining up with an impeccable record, and coming into this event of a Grade 1 victory at her most recent outing. In a tight market with plenty of chances, the oddsmakers have installed her as a worthy favorite. Put simply, she ticks all the boxes. Never off the podium in ten starts, she’s taken home the winner’s share seven times. She’s a multiple stakeswinner and has established herself at the top level, winning and running third in two previous appearances against Grade 1 competition. Four weeks ago she inflicted the first defeat on multiple Grade 1 winner, Miscalculation, when she stormed home from the rear to take out the G1-Cevian Stakes, registering a 109 in the process. Although connections will expect it, backers are sure to have their hearts pumping as she gives every runner a head start this weekend, but if she can give Miscalculation seven lengths and run her down, there’s no reason to suggest she cannot repeat the effort here. The barrier draw will allow her to drop out while maintaining the rail and saving plenty of ground in preparation for her finishing burst. Vheissu is a scratchbred daughter of Speightstown / Saint Ballado / Round Table. Astinator8 may have named her after the album, but I prefer the reference to the volcano. Another explosion is imminent.
Silent Screem is to be found in gate 3. It’s probably unfair to describe her as being on the comeback trail, but in some respects that is what she’s setting out to achieve. Back in April the world was her oyster. Four wins and two seconds including victory in the G1-City of Angels, had her perfectly poised for her challenge for the fillies Triple Crown. Well supported in the G1-Bluegrass Oaks, her run could only be described as disappointing. A lackluster effort saw her fade to an eleven lengths defeat in a race where so much more was expected. Following up in the G1-Black Middle Flower Stakes, she fared a little better, beating half the field home, but once again falling well short of Sabbath Point. Returned to the ungraded scene, she was given a confidence boosting comeback gift three weeks ago when, at the prohibitive odds her early form would warrant, she bounced back into the winners circle. Silent Screem is a scratchbred daughter of Kingmambo / Seattle Slew / Nijinsky. Stupor1 selected bloodlines which could produce a star. Her early form indicated that that’s what she would become. She chose the worst possible time to falter, but this week should tell us if she’s overcome the minor setback. Her top jockey should place her nicely on the rails, a few lengths off the pace but within striking distance at all times, and her overall formline has resulted in the price setters placing her on the second line of betting.
Barrier 4 is the starting gate for White Knuckles, a convincing winner over the mile in 1.34.6 last time out, but a filly who’s been found wanting in two previous attempts against Graded competition. Six wins from ten, a black type winner over eight and a half, and a last start winner in smart time are all impressive positives. But those two recent Graded runs must be a cause of concern for connections, and a cause of delight to the other owners and trainers here this weekend. Two of the three worst runs of her career came in her only two previous attempts at top tier racing (the other was at the equivalent meeting last year), so there’s a big question to be addressed this week. Three starts ago, back in February, she was almost twelve lengths astern of Nehi Orange in the G1-Vermont is for Lovers. Five weeks later she was not much closer when tenth behind Bluegrass Oaks winner Sabbath Point in the G2-Fantasia Handicap. She may have put all that behind her with her sensational run six weeks ago, but she still remains a question mark on the ‘class’ front. A daughter of Sky Mesa, she’s based on the lightly raced (3 from 13) Flash Th (Fusaichi Pegasus / Trempolino). Bred and raced by Lenny7, the trainer will be looking to retain the trophy he’s most generously donated for this event, while eleven opponents will look to relieve him of the ongoing expenses involved in keeping her. She’ll settle amongst the backmarkers before doing her best work over the closing stages. A possible repeat of her most recent run makes her price look enticing.
Gate 5 is the starting position for Sisson’s Mark, and despite the urgent need to rebound after a couple of ordinary performances, she’s established her credentials for this back in April when she scored comfortably in the G1-lool Oaks. Since then she’s gone a tad further than the distance of that win, and despite failing to hit the podium, she’s been doing her best work towards the end of those races. Her race three starts back was far better than the fourth looks on paper. That was the pinnacle event for three year old fillies, the G1-Bluegrass Oaks, and she recorded the fastest closing sectionals in the classic taken out by Sabbath Point. Did the effort break her heart? She hasn’t been able to replicate that explosive finish in the two runs since, so that’s the biggest concern for connections this weekend. With a furlong less to travel, and a tendency to drop right out in the run, top flight jockey L. Butcha will need to be totally on the ball to secure her a position to be within striking distance. Then the filly needs to relocate the missing spark. I, for one, hope she regains form, as she’s by one of my favorite cheaper sires, the vastly underrated Mark of Esteem. Her superbly bred dam Jumbo A.P. (A.P. Indy / Riverman) was a stakeswinner from just nine starts and has produced four black type performers to date. This Binzaman02 bred and trained filly is her second Grade 1 winner (still active seven year old Peintre Indyman by Peintre Celebre being the other). Sisson’s Mark sits firmly in the ‘on her day she’s as good as anything else’ category. She’s being kept very safe in the market as a return to top form will come as no surprise to anybody.
Vindictive Eden will exit the 6 barrier, and the lightly raced filly looks to take a quantum this weekend, lining up against some top quality opposition for just her sixth racetrack appearance. She has two major hurdles to overcome here. She’s the only filly in the race never to have registered a triple digit speed rating, and she failed at her first and only black type race, that an ungraded stakes event. On the positive side of the ledger, she’s a winner of three of her five starts, including one over this trip where she stopped the clock in 1.35.4. Repeating that will not be good enough to take home the trophy in this, but she won’t need to improve too much to put herself into the mix. Having had just the five runs, there’s clearly still scope for improvement, so that’s another reason for optimism. Vindictive Eden is, not surprisingly, a daughter of Vindication. Breeder / trainer Ashworth sent the stable’s exclusively owned Grade 3 winner
Barrier 7 is allocated to Saarahy. This filly can easily be forgiven for her last start failure in the G1-Chestnut Stakes, a race which simply may have been beyond her distance range. Her form prior to that contains plenty of positives. Two starts back she appeared to be tilting at windmills, lining up in the most prestigious event of her age and gender, having only once previously competing in any Graded event, that being the G2-Margarine Stakes as a juvenile. She surprised many with a strong run in the G1-Bluegrass Oaks, contesting for the lead at the top of the stretch, and then holding on gamely to hit the wire in fifth spot. Before that courageous Oaks run, she’d comfortably accounted for a couple of ungraded stakes fields, but as they were in races containing numbers of just five and six, those runs were not given much credence by the assessors of the big race. Saarahy is a daughter of
From stall 8 jumps Kornsnake, a filly dropping back in distance here and presenting assessors with a real quandary. She loves to lead, and once she gets to the front, she proves extremely difficult to run down. She’s coming back from nine and a half to the mile, and that has to be a positive. Will she be able to lead though? Schitzngiggle, drawn the rail, and Bathsheba II, from 10, are both sure to make her work for any early ascendancy. She’s never been able to win without leading all the way, although, to be fair, that assessment comes from just two attempts. Also of some concern is her record against this class opposition. Since her debut run where she finished fourth, she’s missed the podium just twice. Both times she was competing in Grade 1 events. Her strong win two starts back over the longer journey, proved to one and all that she is capable of running the sort of time which is likely to be required for this, and her ability on that occasion has ensured that the oddsmakers have treated her with great respect in their early markets. Kornsnake is a scratchbred daughter of Sadler’s Wells / Mill Reef / Secretariat, raced by her breeder Korn. She’s carrying a handy rider, and if she can win the early charge, she’s a definite chance, although I hold a grave fear that the early pace may set the race up for those ridden with a degree of patience.
Wondergirl Gitte, drawn 9, has worked her way into contention her via a career best effort last time out when she finished third behind Vheissu and Miscalculation in Kentucky’s G1-Cevian Stakes four weeks ago. Prior to that run she was a handy filly whose two stakes wins and solid Graded efforts were sufficient to earn respect, but not enough to instill fear. That recent effort has forced opposition trainers and analysts to regard her in an entirely different light. A career best at the time of year when the three year olds are expected to display their increased maturity. Adding nine points to her previous top speed rating, that 107 sits comfortably among the best efforts ever produced by this group of runners. All she really needs is to do it again, for this race is sure to be run in quick time. Wondergirl Gitte is a daughter of Mountain Cat from breeder / trainer Karlch’s ‘exclusive’ mare Buttery Fisherman. The dam has already provided the stable with a memorable highlight in her first foal, the triple Grade 1 winning Wonderboy Cougar (Barathea), a winner of more than five and a half million dollars. Three subsequent foals failed to maintain the family history, until this girl brought the line back on track. She should be able to avoid the early charge and take up a handy position within two or three lengths of the pacemakers. If the leaders cut away at each other, this filly could be in the perfect spot to take full advantage in the stretch.
Bathsheba II has drawn 10 stepping up to Grade 1 competition at just her seventh start, but having given every indication in the preceding six that she’s capable of measuring up at this level. Impressive in her last five, all on dirt, she’s added significant numbers to her speed ratings at each subsequent outing, and will not need to find much more to be a second to none chance in this event. There are a couple of concerns for connections. She drops back to the mile in this, the first time she’s attempted the trip on dirt, and she’s yet to establish herself at Grade 1 level. Of course these two questions both fall into the ‘haven’t tried, so haven’t failed’ category and may well be answered without any worries this week. Slightly more concerning may be the formulation of race tactics. She likes to set up a big lead and defy the closers. With Schitzngiggle and Kornsnake both drawn inside her, she’s unlikely to be allowed to control the pace without pressure. We saw last start in the G2-Denny Tario Oaks, when Die Verwandlung made her work early, she was left a sitting duck for the fast finishing Luzerne. Connections won’t want a repeat of that here, but that most recent experience may well have her better equipped this week. Bathsheba II is a scratchbred daughter of Rock Hard Ten / Secretariat / Danzig. Breeder / trainer Dormello obviously expects great thing from this filly, and she may well deliver at the highest level this week.
Drawn in gate 11, we find Gold for the Grave, a stakeswinning turf performer, whose speed ratings reached another dimension once she shifted to the dirt. A winner of seven of her twelve runs, it seems strange to suggest we should simply ignore her first ten efforts, but doing so simply enhances her chances in this race. The last two runs were both over the mile on this surface. They were both impressive wins by more than two lengths, and the more recent was against Graded opposition in which she stopped the clock at 1.34.6. Nothing she’s lining up against can mount a stronger argument than being an unbeaten Graded winner under the surface and distance conditions of this race. She does have to step up to the plate in regards to class, having never ventured into the heights of Grade 1 competition previously, so at least the other trainers can take solace from the ‘unproven at this level’ line. Gold for the Grave is a daughter of Dynaformer from Ghoul’s Gold (Pine Bluff / Mr. Prospector). While Cougar’s star mare won two Grade 1 events and more than one and a half million in purses, to date she hasn’t fired in the breeding barn. This filly is the first of four progeny to approach the heights expected of such an illustrious forebear, although she may need to look over the shoulder at her younger half brother. The barrier proves of little consequence, as we expect most of her opponents to be ahead of her once the field settles. Don’t be surprised to see her putting in the big strides when it counts and if you like her chances, she represents great value at the window.
The outside gate is reserved for Demonic Presence. One of the longer priced runners, she heads the entry order for this race, and therefore, as a Grade 1 winner, demands a solid degree of respect. On the negative side of the ledger, that Grade 1 victory came as a juvenile in the World Cup Juvenile Filly Mile last September. Since then her presence has been nowhere near as demonic, notwithstanding the fact that she’s won two of her last three starts, both over the trip she faces this weekend. Does all that sound confusing? She’s a Grade 1 winner. She’s a winner of two of her last three. She’s a winner of her last three at the mile. She’s the most highly qualified runner and yet she lines up almost an outsider in this field. It’s more a vindication of the overall strength of the field than anything else. Demonic Presence is a daughter of Victory Gallop from Sinister Simster (say that a few times fast). The dam (Mineshaft / Polish Numbers) was a dual stakeswinner who went through four trainers before producing this, her first foal. A couple of her wins have come with front running efforts, but I don’t expect her to try and lead from this wide gate. She’s proven she doesn’t need the front, but I expect her to move across and settle within a couple of lengths of the leading bunch. She’s established her class, is in current good form and must a chance in this open event.
Summary:
Is it possible to exclude any of these talented fillies as some sort of winning chance? In a word – No. The outsider of the field is Vindictive Eden at 13/1. She’s clearly achieved less than her opposition, but as a lightly raced filly she has plenty of upside. White Knuckles is next longest price at 12/1 and she needs only to repeat her last run in this much stronger class to be a serious threat. Demonic Presence at 11/1 is a last start winner with a Grade 1 victory on her CV. Of the 10/1 shots, Schitzngiggle will take a power of running down if she leads, Saarahy ran a great race in the Bluegrass Oaks and Gold For The Grave is unbeaten in two dirt runs. Bathsheba II, at 9/1 just keeps getting better with every run. Wondergirl Gitte, 8/1, ran an enormous race in Grade 1 company last time out. Kornsnake, at 7/1, is a speed machine and those at the top of the chart all deserve to be there. The 6/1 shots have been competing in the major events for their age group, Silent Screem having impeccable credentials outside those two biggest races and Sisson’s Mark is clearly capable of returning to her top form. The favourite, Vheissu, heads the betting at 5/1 because she’s got the best overall form.
Selections:
Saarahy to win. Top Oaks run. Forgive the last effort as too far. Great value in an open race
Vheissu for second. Superb form. I don’t liking tipping favorites, but her form is just so consistent and that last run was amazing.
Gold For The Grave for third. Two dirt starts. Two dirt wins. Terrific across the board bet.
The Market:
5/1 – Vheissu
6/1 – Silent Screem, Sisson’s Mark
7/1 – Kornsnake
8/1 – Wondergirl Gitte
9/1 – Bathsheba II
Qualification Order – Class Rating Position:
Demonic Presence – 5
Sisson’s Mark – 9
Silent Screem – 12
Vheissu – 27
Saarahy – 44
Bathsheba II – 48