Milers on the Turf in sweden
Tette Mile Classic
Grade II
One mile
Firm Turf
$250,000
All horses, 3 years old
11 3yo colts attended the starting declaration for the Firm Turf Mile Race in Sweden, let’s take a look at the runners.
#1 HEPS ROCK(KY) 20/1 5 Races – 2 Wins – 72,016$
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=158642
This Dynaformer Colt cracked his maiden just 1 month ago, he then won an ALW Race in germany over 1 mile, he looks very untested and unexperienced. His Speed Numbers in the High 80s don’t suggest he will finish in the money here. It’s tough to predict how he will fare in Graded Company, but unless he can up his performance a lot, you can expect him bein the backmarker.
#2 NIGHT SIGNAL(IRE) 7/1 15 Races – 4 Wins – 148,498$
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=110141
The Night Shift Colt brings a lot more experience, but he takes an enourmous step in class, last time out, he won an owner restricted ALW in Australia, he’s well traveled for a 2yo, and his biggest in today came as a 2yo, when he won an Ungraded Stakes Race in ontario. Recent performances suggest 1 Mile is too short for him, not in my Top 3.
#3 VERTBAUDET(IRE) 5/1 10 Races – 7 Wins – 170,775$
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=76827
This colts career looked all bright, until ownership deceided to take a shot at the 12f Derby d’English, the horse was overwhelmed by the crowd and found the distance way too long. He however demonstrated his class at 1 Mile back in early May, when he won a Stakes Race with a huge 108 Speed Number. We have to see how he took the adventure over 12f, but if that didn’t hurt him, he could make a huge impact on this race, and enter the winner’s circle for the 8th time in his young career.
#4 LEXI’S SMILE(KY) 5/1 15 Races – 4 Wins – 92,362$
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=136583
This Include colt will tackle Graded Races for the 3rd Time, and this may be his lucky number, the first two tries came at the wrong time and the wrong distance, today he seems well prepared. He won 2 ALWs in his last 2 races, and made impression with a 103 and a 106 mark. It seems he still hasn’t found his ideal distance, and I’d suggest half a furlong more and his chances would be even better, nevertheless, a money finish seems possible.
#5 TREBRE RED(IRE) 25/1 12 Races – 2 Wins – 74,160$
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=35698
Somehow it’s a mistery to me, how an owner can force a horse, that has a tough time competing in ALWs, into Graded Racing. He finished 13th in a Group 2 Sprint last time in New York, and with all likelyhood, the result will be nearly the same here, he ran a solid 6th last time over 8f in a Group 3 race, but with a Speed of 90, it will be tough to be near that in this race. Ao to sum it up, not the class to run here.
#6 MAXIMUS PRIME(KY) 8/1 6 races – 3 Wins – 44,680$
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=153995
Another runner with only small experience, and no experience in Graded racing, Won his first 3 races with nice speed Numbers, but stepping up to Stakes class didn’t do him well, with a 3rd and a 5th over 8.5 f. The step back in distance seems ok, but steppin up to Group 2 will make it tough for him.
#7 KEPLER TOKYO(JPN) 9/1 14 Races – 6 Wins – 544,220$
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=50068
This colt brings all the Experience you can expect from a 3yo. He won a Group 1 as a 2yo, and finsihed 3rd in the Breeders Bowl Juvenile Turf, from then on his career went downwards.
As a 3yo he couldn’t even compete in Ungraded Class so far, but preppin him in ALWs his ownership is hopeful to rebound in the Summer Season He won an ALW in April and May, and looked sharp over 6.5f last time running a 99 his best speed so far. If he can handle the distance and find his 2yo form, this can be the opening of better days for this 2yo star.
#8 EMPIRE INFERNO(KY) 5/1 14 Races – 5 Wins – 115,642$
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=135647
The 3yo Empire Maker colt ran his best race so far over 8.5f last time out, producing a 102 and just gettin caught at the line to finish 2nd in a Stakes race. He won 3 ALWs as a 3yo, and the step up to Graded Racing is a logic one, despite the Stakes win missing. Should find the distance to his liking, and if he gets a early lead will be tough to catch. I see him finishing just outside the Top 3 nevertheless.
#9 FIRST FERDIE(KY) 22/1 5 Races – 2 Wins – 65,470$
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=94083
With most of the top 3yo turf milers missing, lots of owners seem to be jumping the ship and take huge chances at this race, however, if you fail in Ungraded Stakes, you shouldn’t take a step to Graded Competition. The First samurai 3yo colt won an 8f ALW with a nice 93 speed last time out, he should finish around 7th or 8th with that speed here. I don’t see him any better, unless he breaks a flyer.
#10 SARDINI(KY) 7/2 13 races – 5 Wins – 446,130$
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=139748
The bookies early morning favourite looks all impressive here. He is far away from a secure lock, but has more experience and more winnings than 9 out of his 10 rivals. He adds that with nice outings in a Group 2 and a Group 3 last 2 races finishing 2nd and 3rd, the step to the winners circle for this 2yo group 1 Winners looks only logical. The Bernadini Colt posted a 103 and a 102 in his last races and looks for his first turf win. He was switched from dirt after a mediocre start to his 3yo campaign, and took it all well so far. My obvious pick to take this race.
#11 RURAL LEGEND(KY) 11/1 7 races – 3 Wins – 69,830$
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=147146
It looks like the story of this race, “ALW Winner going at it in a Group 2”, another fine horse, that should try to get wins in Ungraded Stakes, he produced a nice 90 Speed Rating winning over 8f earlier this year, he will need to produce a 105 rating at least here, and I don’t see him do that.
Final Outlook:
The Question is, can one of the ALW horses produce a speed figure of 100+, which I don’t think is likely, so it will come down to 4,3,8 and 10, with 2yo star #7 in the mix. I pick the 10 to beat the 3 and the 4 in my Top 3.