11 Seek Kakarazuka Tinen Cup

This years running of the grade 2 Kakarazuka Tinen Cup attracted 11 entries to contest the 10 furlong event. This race is open to all horses age 3 or more. The race is scheduled to take place on the inner turf, with two nice sharp turns, and a juicy $350k purse.

1. Exclusive Habitat 3-1
The preverbial favorite in the race draws the inside post. It’s hard to look to far past this 10f specialist, who has 6 wins and 2 places at this distance in 8 starts. Career wise, he’s been first or second in 15 of 18 starts…this says alot. He loves to go gate to wire and is capable of doing that here. He has run a race below a speed of 100 for the past year and grabs top notch jockey Ledwith.

2. Elufly’s Goldie 5-1
Elufly has been running well, finishing 1st or 2nd in half of his 35 career starts. Since this time last year, he has recorded speeds of 100 or higher in each start, except two. He is once againg facing his rival, Exclusive Habitat. They have matched up in 3 of Elufly’s last 4 races, with Exclusive beating him to the wire each time. Looks good to use in exotic wagers.

3. Black West 7-1
Black West is one who leaves the gate rather slowly. He often trails the field early on and makes his move late in the race. He was a disappointing 5th in his last outing (10f), making up some ground, but not enough. The prior two races (9.5f & 9f), he won with a hard late charge in a speed of 110. He will need to do that to upset the favorite in this one.

4. Song as a Prospect 23-1
Song will need his best effort here. He’s only raced in two stakes and missed the board in both. He’s been pushed up to the graded stakes and looks like an outsider. His best speed listed is at 100, which means he will need to put in a full 110% to upset this gang.

5. Shriver Mine 8-1
Shriver usually runs in the middle of the pack, keeping the leaders well within site. The 10f distance does suit him well and he is coming off a Grade 1 win on an offtrack, run at the 10f distance in 105. He has run at this track in the past, putting in an awful 8th place finish. That happened to be in last years running of this very race.

6. Antichamber 15-1
Antichamber has hit the board in 21 of 28 turf starts, a record any owner would like. He is making his debut in graded stakes and is coming off some decent races. Three of his last four were charted at a speed of 100 or more. I expect that he will be challenging the favorite for the lead, but I’m not sold that he’ll still be there at the end.

7. Town Prince 7-2
The reigning champion from last years running of this race is returning to defend his honour. He ran this race in an amazing speed of 118! He has a streak of 7 races where he has finished first or second. Career wise, he has been first or second in 21 of 30 starts. He is a front runner and will be joining Exclusive Habitat, Antichamber and SR Awareness for the battle of the lead.

8. Bowled Shane 18-1
Bowled made his debut in graded stakes last time out, going 10f on an off-track in 99. He finished 5th in that race, running pretty flatly throughout the race. He has been improving over the past few months, but I don’t see him as ready to battle these guys….yet.

9. K’s Okkasion 8-1
I love the name of this horse..all those K’s are OK with me. He has a nice record, with 15 wins in 35 starts. K’s has raced in Japan before, taking first or second in each of his three starts, except they were all on the dirt. He is consistantly scoring speeds over 100, however, his last race was a disaster. He just seemed to drop out of the race after passing the halfway pole…faltering by over 19 lengths. Is this a sign of trouble?

10. S R Awareness 12-1
You should see S R Awareness making a bid for the lead, one he will find a challenge to get with several other speedsters entered in this race. He is capable of popping speed over 100, but has an erratic history. In 9 graded races, he has yet to find the winners circle. His last win was way back in May, 2007. I’d put my money elsewhere.

11. Craft Stripe 7-1
Craft has scored the top two spots in 8 of his 16 starts. He is coming in off a career best speed of 108 (8.5f) just missing by a length. He has been recording speeds over 100 consistantly since March. He looks to have a chance, but I feel that is severly negated by the draw of jockeys. Taking the saddle is A. Blundin, who has located the winners circle once in over 50 starts this year. Maybe he should invest in a GPS system?

We have a field loaded with speed. It may come down to the one who lays off the pace that gets the job done here. My top choice will go to the favorite, who I think is capable of dethroning the returning champ. Exclusive Habitat has the rail which may help in getting the inside run. Ledwith (31% win) is in saddle, and Exclusive is ranked #1 among all simster Turf Classics.

I can’t rule out the returning champ Town Prince who had a heck of a run last year. Don’t be surprised if he repeats.

My final selection is to Elufly’s Goldie. He has been chasing the top choice for some time, coming up short. He has been racing well enough to walk away with something.

Now for something I am starting to dread. I have challenged my picks to the random picks of a dice roll. Thus far, the dice are ahead, 1 of 5. But I am close up second. Here is what the roll comes up with:

11-Craft Stripe
10-S R Awareness
2-Elufly’s Goldie

Good luck at the window!!