14 fillies to fight it out in the mud at the G3-Butterfly Futurity
Welcome to the 9th running of the G3-Butterfly Futurity in Georgia. We have a full field of fillies and mares racing 6 furlongs on the dirt track to take home their share of the $150,000 purse. We have 2 graded winners in the race and 4 making their stakes debut today. It is always hard to handicap 2 year old races because they can be so unpredictable and the horses may not have a clear running style established yet. To add to the complexity of handicapping today’s race is the weather. With all the rain here in Georgia we will have a sloppy track and it will be interesting to see how these girls handle the mud. This is the first time in the history of the race that there has been an off track. History also tells us that it is usually won with early speed and it has been won wire to wire three times.
In an effort to avoid repeating myself many times in the article I will say up front that there are 11 horses in the field (all except Sheikh Indy, Save The Day and Woette’s Fleet) with a lot of early speed and that like to race wire to wire or just off the pace. Even when their race history shows 6th, 7th or further back at certain calls, it is almost always only 1 or 1 ½ lengths behind the leader. I expect most of these horses to race close together and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a very close finish. Let’s look at the field:
PP 1 SHE’S SO FINE (KY) (FORESTRY x SILVER GHOST x DANZIG) bred and trained by jwpop (Tmp Stables, 8%) Odds: 10 to 1
She’s So Fine and her connections were very happy to see the track listed as sloppy for today’s race. Both of her wins came on off tracks and she is one of only two horses with experience on off tracks. Her sire, Forestry, has been good for producing dirt runners, almost 80% winners and 12% stakes winners and 13 graded winners in the last 5 years. She is the first offspring from well bred, G rated mare, So Long Sammy. She’s So Fine should be happy with her post position, as one who likes to take the early lead, drawing the rail will be to her advantage. She hasn’t tried stakes before so the question will be if she can handle herself in this class. With the off track I definitely think she can.
PP 2 SAVE THE DAY (KY) (LANGFUHR x CARSON CITY x NOHOLME II) bred and trained by leesnyder (Snyder Stable, 15%) Odds: 23 to 1
Save the Day is making her first stakes try here today. She is a scratch bred daughter of Langfuhr. He has been successful at producing dirt sprinters, but doesn’t have a graded winner yet. She has two victories in her two starts, but they were both owner restricted and her speeds a lower than others in today’s field. One huge thing in her favor is that the field is dominated by horses who like to take the early lead or stalk and she is one of two that have won a race by staying well back and then passing the pack in the stretch. If she has a career best and the rest of the field wear themselves out early she could have a chance here.
PP 3 EAGLE FLYER (IRE) (INVINCIBLE SPIRIT (IRE) x INDIAN RIDGE x KINGMAMBO) bred and trained by roosters04 (Ozsteve Stables, 15%) Odds: 6 to 1
After winner her first race wire to wire Eagle Flyer tried a stake race and had an 11 point jump in speed, but wasn’t able to win again. She finished 1 ½ lengths behind for a third place finish. Her sire, little used Invincible Spirit, has had success producing both turf and dirt runners. He produced 3 stakes winners last year and his first graded winner, Snarky Remark, who ran in the Bluegrass Derby. Eagle Flyer is out of game dame Pocohontas (IRE) who was a dirt sprinter with 6 career wins and 19 in the money finishes in her 38 starts.
PP 4 THEA’S DREAMER (OK) (HIGH OCTANE x BROAD BRUSH x FORTY NINER) bred and trained by sveningvar (Eirann shady business farm, 9%) Odds: 12 to 1
Thea’s Dreamer is a daughter of first year sire, High Octane. He is a son of A.P. Indy and has 9 offspring so far this year. And if High Octane is anything like his daddy, he should be a great sire for the sim. Thea is out of game dame Princess Murf. In her 12 career starts she won 50% of the time and finished in the money 10 times. She has also produced a graded winner and a stakes placed horse. After debuting on turf to a 5th place finish, trainer sveningvar switched her to the dirt where she has won twice, including a stakes victory. Since she was switched to the dirt she hasn’t been out of first place, but will have a lot of competition in this field for the early lead.
PP 5 WILDCAT TAP (KY) (PLEASANT TAP x FOREST WILDCAT x RAJA BABA) bred and trained by ismwass (Legendary Stables, 9%) Odds: 14 to 1
Wildcat Tap is one of 2 to have a graded victory already. It took her two tries to break her maiden and then she tried the G3-Unusual Circumstances Juvenile where she ran just of the pace for half the race, then took the lead and couldn’t be caught. She definitely likes to run at or near the front, she has never been more then ¾ lengths behind the leader in her three races. Her sire is Pleasant Tap who typically produces dirt routers and has a pretty nice win percentage, but not many stakes or graded stakes winners. Wildcat Tap is only one of two graded winners in the last 5 years. Her game dame is What A Wildcat who was a dirt sprinter who never tried stakes or graded stakes.
PP 6 RESET MY MUZZLE (AUS) (RESET (AUS) x WHITE MUZZLE (GB) X BOB BACK) bred and trained by trazi4u (Kfastracer Stables, 9%) Odds: 30 to 1
Reset My Muzzle is a scratch bred daughter of Reset. Reset is a son of Zabeel and hasn’t been used all that often in the sim. Reset’s offspring are about half and half for dirt and turf, but the majority of them are sprinters. He has 5 stakes winners and if Reset My Muzzle wins here it will be his first graded win for him as a sire. Reset My Muzzle had a miserable first time out, but came out in her second try and won wire to wire. She then tried an allowance race and brought home the victory there too. She is making her stakes debut here. Like so many others in this race, she likes to run at or near the front of the pack and she will need to fight for the lead in this field.
PP 7 SHEIKH INDY (KY) (BERNARDINI x FORTY NINER x STORM CAT) bred and trained by oaklawn88 (Hornedfrog Stables, 14%) Odds: 5 to 1
Sheikh Indy debuted with a nice speed of 71 where she ran just off the pace, but pulled ahead down the stretch for the win. She continued with this running style in her next two races, an allowance place and a stakes victory her last time out. In both of the races that she won she was the favorite. She is out of game dam Indy Connection who produced a graded winner in 2007 and had 2 graded victories herself. Her sire, Bernardini is in his second year as a sire and has already produced 2 graded winners and 15 stakes winners. Most of his progeny have raced successfully on dirt, mostly routes, so when 2 year old races get longer Sheikh Indy could expect even more success. She is Bernardini’s top earner out of 41 horses this year.
PP 8 LUCKY’S HEIDI (KY) (GHOSTZAPPER x WAR CHANT x FORTY NINER) bred and trained by naracing9 (Mr Lucky’s, 19%) Odds: 8 to 1
This will the third time out for this daughter of Ghostzapper. Ghostzapper has only been a sire for three years, but has produced 11 graded winners and 13% stakes winners. His offspring tend to like the dirt and have had success at routes and sprints. The Ghostzapper x War Chant combination has been tried 4 others times, the most successful being Allied’s Ghost who has only finished out of the money 3 times in his15 career starts. After breaking her maiden first time out with a speed of 70 she was one of four horses in The SECOND STORM Stakes and she brought home her second victory. She was second most of the race, but was able to get ahead at the last minute.
PP 9 KITHARA (KY) (GONE WEST x STORM CAT x MR. PROSPECTOR) bred and trained by ovidius (Ovidius Stables, 13%) Odds: 5 to 1
Kithara is a daughter of Gone West, a favorite in the sim for many years. He has produced winners 83% of the time, 95 stakes winners and 26 graded winners in the last 5 years. Kithara is out of game dame Bastet and Kithara is her first offspring. She was a dirt sprinter with 1 graded win. Kithara debuted as the favorite and just missed the win. She won second time out and then tried graded stakes at the G3-Arizona Shoot-Out Special where she just missed again, ½ of a length behind for another second place finish.
PP 10 NANTUCKET SOUND (NY) (SUNRIVER x QUIET AMERICAN x STORM BIRD) bred and trained by chloedawg3 (Right At Home Stables, 12%) Odds: 19 to 1
Out of post position 10 is Nantucket Sound, a scratch bred from New York sire Sunriver. Sunriver is a son of Saint Ballado and in his first year as a sire. In 25 horses so far Sunriver has produced 5 winners, and Nantucket Sound, his top earner has won a graded stakes race. She broke her maiden first time out, fighting for the early lead and finally taking it towards the end of the race with the leader faded quickly and the late runners weren’t able to catch her. She ran a similar race for her second time out, an allowance level race, but finished second. Then she tried graded stakes for the first time and as the long shot she won, finishing 1 length ahead. I am not sure why she has such a high price here, she already has a graded win and has to top jockey here. I think she is going to get my money.
PP 11 ONEMORE QUEEN (IRE) (KALANISI (IRE) x KINGMAMBO ) ALZAO) bred and trained by onemore (Ldyssecret Stables, 10%) Odds: 13 to 1
Onemore Queen is the second horse in the field today from an Irish sire and, even more importantly the second horse in the field with experience on sloppy dirt tracks. In fact, both of her career starts were on sloppy tracks and she didn’t seem to mind the mud at all. She won her maiden and placed in her allowance try. She is trying stakes for the first time today and I think she will do well. Her sire, Kalanisi, has produced slightly more turf runners and she is the first offspring from game dame Tell It To The King, who had all her wins and in the money finishes on turf.
PP 12 BORE BUBBA (KY) (BORREGO x WOODMAN x LINE IN THE SANE) bred and trained by jayvee (Jayvee Stables, 14%) Odds: 11 to 1
Bore Bubba is a daughter of Borrego, a 3rd year sire looking for his second offspring to win a graded stakes. She is out of game dame Wood Bubba, who has produced 7 offspring, the first in 2001 being the most successful, winning graded stakes. Bore Bubba is her second most successful offspring. Bore Bubba wired the field as one of the long shots in her first race and just missed winning her second try, a stakes race, by ½ length. She had been in the lead most of the race, but wasn’t able to hold on in the end, losing to Storm King who had been just behind her the entire race. With all the early speed in this race she needs to be careful not to fade or she won’t be in the mix here.
PP 13 SDSD (KY) (ANY GIVEN SATURDAY x STORM CAT x RAISE A NATIVE) bred and trained by ceclaim26 (Royal Blegian Kempen Farm, 15%) Odds: 7 to 1
After starting her career in an allowance race where she finished second, trainer ceclaim tried a MSW where she wired the competition and put up a nice 79 speed factor. In her next race she tried stakes, bringing home another victory. And although there was a drop in speed, she was well ahead in the race and probably would have gone faster if she was pushed. SDSD is out of game dam Adam’s Cat, who has been very successful in the breeding shed despite only winning one race. She has produced 2 stakes winners and 2 stakes placed horses. Her sire, Any Given Saturday is in his first year as a sire and there are already 6 other 2 year olds with Storm Cat as the DS. SDSD is his top earner.
PP 14 WOETTE’S FLEET (KY) (AFLEET ALEX x STORM CAT x IRON RULER) bred and trained by woette4 (The royalstables of Ostend, 10%) Odds: 12 to 1
Woette’s Fleet is one of six in the field making her third start here today. She is a daughter of Afleet Alex, only in his third year as a sire. He has already produced 23 horses that are stakes or graded winners and 12 of those have Storm Cat or a son of Storm Cat as their DS, so Woette’s Fleet pedigree has a history of success. Her game dam is Mother Stormy who has produced 2 stakes winners and 2 stakes placed horses. Woette’s Fleet started strong, winning her first race with a speed of 70. She didn’t win her second race, finishing second, but more discouraging was the 9 point drop in speed. One thing in her favor today is her tendency to be a late runner. That could really work in her favor here with all the early speed.
It is hard not to pick She’s So Fine or Onemore Queen here with their experience on a sloppy track. But I don’t see why Nantucket Sound has such a high price, so I am going for the large payout. I will say Sheikh Indy will come from behind for second place and She’s So Fine for third. Good luck and happy racing. J