BALANCED FIELD MEETS IN FREIERMUTH

Longchamps-We had such a good time partying in Longchamps after last week’s Grade I race that we decided to stay another week and cover the ten furlong, $175,000, Grade III, Freiermuth Stakes.  Moderate overnight rains have left the turf course in a good condition.  The nine three year old fillies that are competing in this race are looking to win their first graded race of their careers.  Official Hong Kong Track Handicapper, Pete ‘The Hatchet’ Wang will detail each filly’s chances of becoming a graded winner.

PP1, Worldbeatr’s Cytheria(4-1, Nine).  “This is a very balanced field.  Cytheria is the favorite, but out of the nine fillies only one is a morning line double digits odds starter.  This balanced race shapes up to be very exciting because these fillies are so evenly matched.  I think just about any horse can win this race.  They must demonstrate that they can handle the condition of the turf and the class of the race.  A Grade III event such as this race is very defining.  Here you have nine fillies that have been successful in allowances looking to make their mark in a graded event.  I believe the winner of this race will go on to further graded success because the victory will give her a huge boost in confidence.  Cytheria has a legitimate shot to be triumphant.  Vindication is her sire and she is out of a Storm Cat mare.  Since switching to the turf she has hit the board in seven of nine starts.  She has a fourth and a third in G3 races.  The third place finish in a G3 race came in her last start that also saw her earn a career best 98 speed rating.  Her breeding suggests that she will handle the off turf.  Her biggest impediment to possible victory is the distance of the race.  Unfortunately for her connections, her prior races suggest that she is not as effective when racing past nine furlongs.  Based on the stamina issues, I’m go to go elsewhere with my money, though I think she can gain a minor share.”

PP2, Breed2sell’s Gretna(Ire)(8-1, Perloff).  “This daughter of Generous is the highest ranked filly in the field with a 63 ranking.  In her life she is four of nine and has earned over $134,000.  I believe that she is another tough miler that is competing at a less then optimum distance.  Her best races have come at a flat mile.  She had a third in a G3 when going a mile and she put up a 101 in winning her last race, a mile stake.  When this accomplished closer has raced past a mile her speed ratings have been 86, 62 and 77.  Her breeding suggests that with maturity she may be able to handle this distance, but I won’t use her today.”

PP3, Sabbath3’s Tete High Moon(Ire)(6-1, Wu).  “Top trainer sends out a filly who might be sitting on a big race.  Sabbath has really orchestrated her career.  She’s raced in many bid races and has very nice established form.  She comes into this race winning four of her last five races with her only loss being a fifth place finish in a Grade I.  Daughter of Moon Ballard has never raced over an off course but, based on her breeding, she will probably handle the conditions due to the Danzig in her line.  Distance is not an obstacle because she has an eleven furlong win.  24% jockey rides.  Include the closer stalker in your exotic wagers.”

PP4, Maruxa’s Ultegra(5-1, Head).  “This is an odd filly.  She is bred Woodman x Dynaformer x Caerleon and her first nine career starts were all on the dirt.  She finally starts on the lawn in her last race and is second with a 99 speed rating in a 9.5 furlong 4L allowance race.  That speed figure was her second best lifetime speed figure.  I think this stalker improves with her second race over the lawn at a distance that she is comfortable with.  Has a second place finish and a 98 speed rating when racing ten furlongs on the dirt.  Put her in your exotic.”

PP5, Fourhooves’ Aragon Bull(5-1, Ventura).  “Daughter of Palance, a son of Crusader Sword, will be a major player in this race.  In a prior stake start she finished second when racing ten panels over a good turf course with a 94 speed rating and in her last start she finished second in an 11 furlong Grade I race that was also contested over a good turf course.  In that race she earned a career best 97 speed rating.  $133,000 of her $216,000 career earnings were made in those two races.  Include her in your wager.”

PP6, Bulletday9’s Testing Fractions(Ire)(5-1, Wood).  “This daughter of Best of the Bests will be winging it from the start.  Has a ten furlong stake score in which she went gate to wire.  She can stalk a hot early pace if she needs to.  Does have a third place finish in her lone start over a good track, but that effort was significantly slower than the figure she normally would have earned.  Has a fifth place finish in a Grade I.  I’d like her better if the track was firm.  I foresee her gaining a minor share.”

PP7, Sirronny’s Fast Justice(16-1, Lugosi).  “My Tsing Tao longshot.  This daughter of A.P. Indy is a perfect five for five when racing over a track rated ‘off’.  Stalker’s speed ratings are significantly higher when racing under less then firm conditions.  My only concern about her is the distance.  If your going to bet a bomber, she’s the one to bet and use in your exotics.”

PP8, Trackplays’ Wildcat Dayjur(7-1, Walcott).  “Early speed daughter of Dayjur has really improved since she was claimed when she was two.  Nice pick up has won a stake when racing over a good turf course with a career best 96 speed rating.  Has never raced past nine furlongs and I don’t know if she can get the distance.  Her most recent try at nine saw her stop and finish third with a 95 speed rating.  She might be a filly that improves the farther she races.  If the race was shorter I’d be all over her, but I’ll still include her in my exotic.”

PP9, Zambaygo’s Zamshaft(6-1, Sales).  “Daughter of Mineshaft did not like the good turf when she was fifth in the G1 Go Deep Handicap.  Don’t know if it was the surface that she didn’t like or the distance as that race was an 11 furlong affair.  Outside of the Go Deep, Zamshaft has no attempts past 8.5 furlongs so I’m leery about backing her.  She does have a second in a G3 so I know that she has talent and class.”

Until next time, may the racing Gods favor you.