Coventry Steaks III

This years Coventry Steaks is something of a first-season sire showcase, with seven of the eleven runners by sires who are currently being represented by their first crop of runners. As is often the case with these early-season juvenile contests, plenty of these are unexposed, with massive scope for improvement.

PP 1
13/1 FLYING JOHN(AUS)
(FLYING PEGASUS (AUS) x STAY GOLD (JPN) x BLUSHING JOHN)

Flying John’s sire was himself a speedy youngster, and crowned his career with Group 2 win in Australia as a three-year-old. Trainer pandrews run his charge solely at Queensland, where Flying John built on his debut promise to win a maiden with a solid 70sf. Next time out he regressed in terms of speed rating, but still ran well to finish a close second in his first stakes. Jockey Williams is riding an ITM percentage of over thirty. Flying John may have had his limitations exposed last time, but they were hardly scraping-the-barrel limitations and he has good place and show chances.

PP 2
7/1 RUNNING WOLF(IRE)
(MANDURO x PEINTRE CELEBRE (IRE) x MAJESTIC LIGHT)

Manduro was officially the best horse in the world last year so has every right to make his mark as a top sim sire. Running Wolf has so far defied his stamina-laden pedigree, no horse has been quick enough to lead him in two starts so far, though two overhauled him late on his debut. His last-time-out win in an Irish maiden came with the highest sf that any of todays competitors has put up, marking him very much as having solid claims for the win. He’ll also be one to keep in mind as he stretches out later in the season, such is his pedigree.

PP 3
2/1 MIKASA(ENG)
(CACIQUE (IRE) x A.P. INDY x DANZIG)

Favourite in the field is bjbandit2’s Mikasa, a well-bred son of Cacique, out of the G-rated mare Sally’s Choice. His dam often flattered to deceive, looking on a few occasions like she might be up to running 100+, but alas she seemed to level out at 96, a figure she ran to 4 times. Mikasa was born running, and won a maiden at New South Wales on his debut with a 77sf. That figure is only one point behind the best entering todays contest, confirming him a strong contender for honours today, provided this test doesn’t come too early in his fledgling career. It may well do later on to remember that his dam found her stamina limited to seven furlongs, so Mikasa may be one to oppose at longer distances later in the season.

PP 4
7/2 CHILL OF A.P.(IRE)
(TEOFILO x A.P. INDY x CARO(IRE))

Nobody got to see what Teofilo could do as a three-year-old, that opportunity cruelly thwarted through injury, what was doubtless was his prowess as an outstanding juvenile. If his son Chill of A.P. has inherited a fraction of that talent then he surely warrants close inspection for todays contest. Most of Chill of A.P.’s siblings were largely disappointing, so caution has to exhibited in not going overboard, but his debut win was promising, recording a 68sf. He does have massive scope for improvement, though trainer jdiso2 didn’t luck out with his jockey choice, A. Adler riding winners at just a two-percent clip. Given his classy pedigree, Chill of A.P. is probably a worthy second favourite today.

PP 5
26/1 SHARMIRA(IRE)
(SHINKO FOREST (IRE) x PRINCE RUPERT(FR) x GENERAL ASSEMBLY)

Sharmira cannot be faulted in winning both her starts, though her winning times are slow on the context of this race. Her odds of 26/1 do probably underestimate her chances. Her sire is, in real life, a prolific source of juvenile winners, particularly at sprint distances (he was himself a Group 1-winning sprinter in Japan). Sharmira’s prospects of staying a route later look brighter since New Approach (a half-brother to Shinko Forest) won the Epsom Derby last weekend. moussac’s filly probably has place prospects at best, and her main role may be as Running Wolf’s harrier on the lead.

PP 6
13/1 CLUB CONTROL(IRE)
(RED CLUBS x STORMING HOME (GB) x PINE BLUFF)

Club Control is one of two in the race by Red Clubs, who was himself a Coventry Stakes winner in real life. He later proved a most consistent and admirable sprinter, finally getting his Group 1 win in Haydock’s Sprint Cup last year. Club Control won his first start promisingly with a 68sf before disappointing next time. He bounced back in fine style on his latest outing, winning the Green Leprechaun Stakes with a solid-looking 70sf. He was all out that day, so further improvement is not guaranteed. That said, his stalking style will put him in good stead to rate behind Sharmira and Running Wolf up front. Solid place chance.

PP 7
11/1 REHEDA RUN(IRE)
(RED CLUBS x HENNESSY x DANEHILL)

The second of Red Club’s offspring in this race is showboat’s Reheda Run, who is, like Club Control two-for-three. His trainer has a pleasant headache with this colt, who has shown aptitude for both turf and dirt, though he was very disappointing on his stakes-debut on the latter surface last time. His pedigree screams precocious speed, and given the worrying regression of his speed figures, his best days might be behind him, even at this early stage. One thing well in his favour is jockey G. Brown, currently winning at a 13% clip.

PP 8
9/1 GOLDEN RAIL(ENG)
(RAIL LINK x GONE WEST x NUREYEV)

Golden Rail is a promising sort, to be showing as much as he so early. His sire was relatively undistinguished as a juvenile, before a fine three-year-old campaign, culminating in a thrilling win over Pride and Deep Impact in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Golden Rail won his first start, though the winning time was slow. He was then stepped straight up to stakes company, and stepped it up, time-wise, though his trainer, stormboot2, was probably hoping for more than a fourth-placed finish. He now has it to prove, but his career is still at a very early stage, and is one to look out once he gets the chance to stretch out.

PP 9
13/1 PRINCE FOR RANSOM(IRE)
(STRATEGIC PRINCE x RED RANSOM x CRIMSON SATAN)

Another by a first-season sire, Prince For Ransom’s being the Coolmore-based Strategic Prince. Strategic Prince was himself a high-class two-year-old, winning the seven furlong Group 2 Vintage Stakes. He never won again, so one would expect his sim influence to be one of speed and precosity. Prince For Ransom is the only competitor here with previous Graded form, a good third in the Belgian Tike Stakes. Trainer snowlynn really lucked out with her jockey, P. Harzeim could ride the stable cat to victory in his current form. Prince For Ransom will provide the test here, though it would be a shade disappointing if his last two speed figures (both 68) were good enough to win.

PP 10
8/1 THE WITCH HUNTER(KY)
(KAFWAIN x DEPUTY MINISTER x KENDOR(FR))

Kafwain was another precocious racehorse, a second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile probably the highlight of his career. He has been brought along slowly, winning his maiden, then an allowance before a fine second in the Men’s Exclusive Stakes with a 71sf. It’s a worry that his speed figure improvement levelled in his latest start, though proven stakes form is not to be sniffed at. Jockey D. Aisy is winning at a 13% clip. The Witch Hunter is another solid contender in a deep race.

PP 11
20/1 SABRESONIC(FR)
(SABREHILL x THUNDER GULCH x BLACK TIE AFFAIR(IRE))

In direct contrast to The Witch Hunter, Sabresonic was pitched straight into stakes company for his debut. He didn’t disappoint, and though his winning sf of 62 is slow in today’s context, winning a stakes on debut is an acheivement to be proud of. All three sires in his sim pedigree stayed ten furlongs at least, so Sabresonic should eventually get well beyond six furlongs. Jockey M. Day is winning at a rate of 18%, and odds of 20/1 are somewhat insulting to the chances of Sabresonic.

In conclusion this is a deep Coventry Steaks, and with a strong pace likely the winner should have to tip over an 80sf to take home the spoils. Mikasa is probably a worthy favourite considering Running Wolf is likely to harried for the lead by Sharmira. Sabresonic is one of the more likely longshots, 20/1 understimates his chance.