Grade I Gold Glass

The Grade 1 Gold Glass Stakes is set to run the marathon distance of 2 miles and drew a moderate field of 12 entrants. The field includes two horses, a filly and a colt, that are putting a three win race streak on the line.

First, we have K’s Zarak, the colt, who has not only won his last three, but has also won 7 of his last 8. And going back a bit further, he has won 8 of last 10.

Next we have Mon Coup, the filly, who also has won his last three. In addition, he has won 6 of his last 7. You can also go back a bit further in the history archives where he has captured 9 of his last 11.

Despite their efforts, neither comes in as the favorite. That honor goes to Samalaman Island, who the oddmakers set off at 4-1.

The race will be run on the turf, with a respectable purse of $500k. This is how the field shapes up:

1. Forever for Her 21-1
Forever is one of two gals running in the race. Forever has her work cut out for her. She’s making only her third career start on the grass where she has failed to hit the board. Additionally, she’s stretching out to 16f for the first time. She’s making a big leap to this Grade 1 event, coming off an unspectacular 6th place effort against allowance company in her last. She doesn’t factor in here.

2. Not So Kool Aid 9-1
Trainer Peeps found a little gold mine in this horse when he claimed the colt last September for a mere $5k. The horse has only missed the board once since the claim and has worked his way up to the graded company…a rags to riches story. Last outing, Not So Kool Aid finished 2nd against Grade 3 going 14f in a speed of 109. He is undefeated at 16f, taking all three with a top speed of 100. He looms as a threat.

3. Rainband 5-1
Rainband moved up to 16f in his last outing, winning easily in the stakes event as the 2-1 favorite. He put in a speed rated at 96, but that was on an off track. His prior two outings scored ratings of 107 going 12 and 13 furlongs versus graded company. He usually closes late and hard, but comes with a drawback…jockey B. Mann. Mann has had a horrible 2008 campaign, winning only once in 41 starts. This may be a case where the horse can benefit the jockey’s chance to win.

4. Total Chaos 6-1
Total Chaos has started and won all three races he’s been in at 16f. This includes two Grade 1 races and one Grade 2 race. He has over $3 million in winnings, and been on the board in 17 of 19 turf races. He recently equaled his career speed best of 106 back in February. He’ll be running towards the front of the field, and don’t be surprised if he’s taken to the lead. He must be respected.

5. Harlans Honour 73-1
It’s hard to see this one stealing the race. Harlans hasn’t seen the winners circle since last October. He has 3 wins in 25 starts and is making his first stakes race. Harlans not showing the form needed to take this talented field.

6. Alum Bay 6-1
Alum Bay hasn’t won since October, but has put in several races with speeds surpassing 100. He made his 2-mile debut in his last outing, finishing second. He was beat by 7 lengths by Footsteps on Grass. I don’t see Alum taking this event, but he should put in a decent race and could walk off with some purse money.

7. Napp 12-1
Napp is an interesting entry here. The horse loves the turf and has a record of 9-5-2-2. He finished 2nd in his stakes debut last time out, running 14f in 104. The horse likes to charge from the back of the field and should handle the additional distance. Should be interesting to see how he handles the graded field.

8. K’s Zarak 12-1
As mentoned earlier, K’s has been winning quite a few races lately. He loves the turf, winning 8 of 12 and picking up a purse check in each start. He is moving up to the graded level and extends out to 16 furlongs for the first time. His last race was a win in a speed of 102 going 14f against a field of 7. He has been racing and winning against smaller fields (7 or less). Can he overcome a larger field?

9. Footsteps on Grass 8-1
Footsteps put in an incredible race last time out winning the 16f event in a rated speed of 102. He trailed the leader by over 15 lengths after a mile and easily ran by eeveryone to win by 7. He has won 3 of last 4, each with speeds of 100 or more. He could take this at a nice price!

10. Samalaman Island 4-1
The favorite and for a reason. He chalked up a speed of 112 at 16f in his last race. His previous race at 16f was rated at 103. Three of last five outings rated at or above 110. Hard to argue with those numbers. I should point out that he’s been running exclusively on the dirt and is swapping over to the turf. He hasn’t run on the turf for over a year and has never won on the surface neither. However, he has been on the board 4 of 5 turf outings. Hard not to like, but the transition of track surfaces does leave a question mark on this capable colt.

11. Blackfyre 14-1
lackfyre shows a past history of performing poorly in stakes races, never hitting the board…until recently. He returned to stake racing in March, capturing two wins in three starts. Both wins rated 100+ going 10 and 14f. He has won at 16f before, but that was a conditional allowance race with a speed of 88. If he can maintain his current form, he could make a statement here.

12. Mon Coup 8-1
The second of two gals running (hey, they got the boys sandwiched between them in the startin gate). This filly is the one to watch. She has won 3 of 4 races going 2-miles, only loss was against graded company. She has a 3-race win streak coming into this event, the last two were at 2-miles where she won each easily as favorite with speeds in the 100’s. She has won 12 of 19 truf starts. The concern is her record against graded stakes. She has one win in four starts against this level. She is showing good form and can bring a nice price with her.

A very tough field to pick from. Last time I discarded the favorite for limite racing on a track surface they were switching to they ended up winning. So I will learn from this lesson and go with the favorite Samalaman Island. If he can run anywhere near as well as he does on the dirt, he could destroy this field.

Total Chaos is my second choice. Total Chaos is ranked 5th in long turf outings. He picks up Jockey Ledwith (18% win) which won’t hurt. Over $3 million in purse money also speaks loudly too.

Third choice is to the gal Mon Coup. She hates to lose and this may be her chance to show the boys what she is capable of doing.

You may or may not know, I have my own handicapping competition going on. I am challenging my picks against a random roll of the dice. Thus far, we are both tied with our top picks coming in the money in 2 of 4 races. Here are my competitors picks:

8-K’s Zarak
9-Footsteps on Grass
4-Total Chaos

I actually like this random pick..hmmm…maybe I’ll play it as a triple. Good luck to all!