Kentucky Grade I is a fraud
By ITCH None of the runners in Saturday’s Grade I, $750,000 Michael Strike Stakes going nine furlongs on the main track for older horses here in Kentucky are ranked in the Top 40 of the Classic division. Wow. Is that a soft Grade I or what? Must have been something about the handicap schedule that left this race out of everybody’s plans. It’s not often that a Simulated trainer can go for the big bucks and big stakes points and not have to face any horses in the Top 40. When the Super Stables were formed, SAN PELLEGRINO was the kind of horse the triumverate ’twas thinking of, this writer opines. Now a 5yo, San Pellegrino got the Super Stables where they wanted to go: The Bluegrass Derby. Back in 2006, San Pellegrino parlayed a second-place finish in the Grade I Movieland Futurity into a ticket to Kentucky. The only problem was, by the time he got there, the bloom was off the rose. He came into the Bluegrass Derby with an awful prep in a French Grade I,and predictably flopped in the Derby. Kind of like Pyro this year. Even though SP didn’t put the Super Stables exactly where they wanted to be, that is, in the winner’s circle and not just the starting gate, they still had a strong graded stakes horse. He’s gone on to win a Grade 2 and two Grade 3’s, while not quite good enough to ring the bell much in Grade I competition. He’s missed the board in five straight Grade I races, including the mile-long Cosmopolitan Handicap last out. He barely lifted a hoof in that race while 10th, and you can’t blame the sloppy track. San Pellegrino moves up the handicapping chart on an off track, so you can blame the class of the race for the poor run. That’s two years in a row that San Pellegrino has been up the track in the Cosmopolitan Handicap, so you’d rather doubt they’ll be back for that race in 2009, but you never know. They’re trying Grade I again with the horse here, despite his poor current form and overwhelming lack of success at this level. You’ll run into Super Stable horses a lot more likely than this one, put it that way. HORATIO NELSON is a strong-looking 4yo brown son of Touch Gold who’s proving a model of consistency for Waremblem’s Winterfell Racing. In 16 career starts, Horatio has missed the board only twice. He’s a strong early-pace type, and usually is a major factor either grabbing the early lead or pressing it. As such, he showed a nice, new dimension last out when he sat fourth early in the Grade 3 Star Athlete Handicap, then closed nicely and drew away by open lengths and capture his first graded win. Waremblem had to be awfully encouraged by that kind of move, especially because the only two times Horatio ever missed the board in his career were in races where he set the pace then faded to fourth in the lane. Another massively encouraging thing about that win last out is the speed figure. Horatio got himself a great big 112, which represented a four-point step forward off his previous career high of 108. This is an extremely consistent and hard-knocking horse who fires a hard shot every time he steps on the track. Stretched back out to nine furlongs from 8.5, it will be interesting to see if Horatio reverts back to his normal pace-setting game or tries to lay off horses again. Maybe it all started going bad for OTTO CAUSES the day the field blew by him in the Grade I Sand Castle Classic in March 2007. With only four furlongs to go in the richest of all races, Otto Causes had a three and one-half length lead, having raced the very good Macho Niner into defeat. Glory awaited him, or did it? On the precipice of the biggest of all Sim scores, Otto Causes ran out of gas, and has been running out of gas ever since. He faded to sixth, and has been fading in the lane in every race hence. True, he did manage a third-place finish in last year’s Breeder’s Bowl Classic in what probably was the best race of his career. More likely, that’s the point where it all started to go bad for this speedy horse. He was nailed on the wire by Solar Song, beaten only half a length by that great champion. Ironically, it is the trainer of that great horse, none other than the 2007 Trainer of the Year, Squirrel, who is now at the controls of Otto Causes. She and Lenny have taken over the operations of the Pierchinski outfit, from which Otto Causes hails. Maybe Squirrel is taking her revenge on this horse for almost beating SS last fall. She’s put him into another suffering spot here for which he clearly is not ready, tackling Grade I foes again whilst in the midst of a form train wreck. It’s a soft field, but this horse hasn’t been running at all lately. While several of the entries in this very strange Grade I field do not appear to be well-meant, that is not the case with VALDESKING(IRE) for Fernando. It looks like this up-and-coming 5yo son of King of Kings is coming up to a huge race. After campaigning in allowance company with a consistent late kick as a 4yo, Valdesking took a big step forward at the end of 2007. He won his first stake, going a mile on a sloppy Dubai track in a non-graded stake. The victory was earned with a career-best 111 speed figure. Then, Fernando did a very interesting thing with this horse. He gave him a rest. Not a lot of trainers are going to do such a thing off a first-time stakes victory and a career-best number. Most are going to step up, at least for another stake and probably into graded action, right then and there. But not Fernando. He waited. He let the horse rest and mature all the more. Now, he’s being rewarded with a potential monster. True, he’s stretching out to nine furlongs here and taking the dreaded double-jump in class and distance. He’s never run a mile and an eighth on the main track, but he sure looks ready. He’s never run in a Grade I, but he sure looks ready. He moved all the way forward to a 117 speed figure last out, representing the best in this field. It’s worked out perfect, landing in a Grade I that has to big, heavy heads in it. Good chance to win. It was hard to read Stu Ungar at the poker table, as the legend goes. THE KID STU, Simulated horseflesh version, is an enigma, as well. Principally, we are left to wonder, was that some kind of prep race last out, or what exactly was the Evil Empire of Lennbrenner up to in that race? After recovering nicely from a last place debacle in the Grade I Sand Castle Classic to win a non-graded stake, The Kid Stu unexpectedly flopped again last out, this time at the non-graded level that he had handled so easily twice before. And now, off that poor race, Lenny shoots again for the Grade I. It gives a strong indication that The Kid Stu may have been bluffing in that last race. Quite possibly, that may have been under Evil Empire orders, at “.90 more a work.” If so, we can expect a serious front-running attempt this time from this regally-bred 4yo brown son of Seeking the Gold, who has the great Northern Dancer as his DS and Hail to Reason DDS. If that last race flop was unintentional, then what? Are we witnessing something like the next race off Big Brown’s Belmont? CALVADOS is stepping up here both in terms of class and distance for Rafa, trainer of ATAUN, last year’s Bluegrass Derby winner. When last seen, Calvados was winning a non-graded stake at a flat mile. On Saturday, he stretches out to a mile and an eighth and jumps in with Grade I foes. As we’ve opined in this space before, it’s asking a horse an awful lot to do two new things at once. If he’s jumping in class, better that it’s at a proven distance. If jumping in distance, maybe even drop in class makes sense to give him his best shot at something new. Now, isn’t that fine? A lowly BTB reporter telling a Bluegrass Derby-winning trainer what to do with his horse? How rich! Let’s note that Rafa is well-proven at getting horses to do just the trick which he is asking Calvados to perform here. Ataun, for the greatest example possible. It’s quite likely that Rafa knows something that we don’t. However, in layman handicapping terms, you take a look at Calvados’ last two tries at nine furlongs and it does not inspire a trip to the betting windows. He couldn’t beat restricted allowance horses at nine furlongs, and now he’s going to beat Grade I horses at nine furlongs? Speaking of Bluegrass Derby-winning trainers, Doctahg sends out FIRSTGO here for his Dentition “No Do Claima’s” Stables.” Doctahg, of course, is the trainer of KISSIN STREETCRY, who came within a whisker’s eyelash of winning the second-ever Sim Triple Crown. Winner of the Bluegrass Derby and this past Saturday’s New Yorker, Kissin Streetcry looked like he was home-free in the Middle Jewel only to be caught by FOLSOM BLUES. It was only half a length between Kissin Streetcry and Sim history, as he went on to demolish the New Yorker. Of course, Firstgo is no Kissin Streetcry, but we have a nice little stakes horse here trying to translate non-graded success into Grade I glory. At least Firstgo is making this big class jump with proven ability at the distance. He’s won two-straight non-graded stakes, one at 9.5, and the other at nine, so you know he can get the distance. That big speed figure of 114 last out also suggests he can get the class, as well. You have to respect a trainer like Doctahg who is on a huge roll right now. The success of Kissing Streetcry could be contagious here. Topicount sends out PLATOON here, a nice 5yo son of Congaree who has been advancing himself class-wise in the Sim of late. He’s gone from struggling somewhat in restricted allowances as a 4yo to winning stakes as an older horse. Platoon broke the triple-digit speed-figure barrier three times as a 3yo, then went almost his entire 4yo campaign before repeating such an effort. It wasn’t until December that he finally ran a 105, that during the second victory in a three-race win streak. The horse finally was springing back to life. Following the three wins in allowance company, Topicount went for non-graded stakes and the initial results were disastrous. He was up the track two in a row, which must have been hard to take after watching him win so nicely in those three. Topicount stuck with this horse and he still had allowance form, running a nice second in an n4x. Now, he was ready for stakes, and has ripped off a 107 and 108 in running first and second in two stakes races. That’s his first stake win last out, and now Topicount is really going for it, shooting for Grade I. As noted, it’s a likely spot to give it a shot, but Platoon has something to prove at the exact distance of nine furlongs. He’s posted big numbers at 8.5, but that extra half-furlong somehow makes a big difference, and this horse never has run a 100 or better going a mile and an eighth. He’s in good form but the distance and class of the race are troublesome. Next, we have the horse that this writer will be pulling for, that’s B MINUS for our good friend Nextbonus, out of his tigerman stable. This classy horseman has a bunch of good ones in the Sim, and knows what to do with them. He’s showing his usual acumen in managing B Minus, a rangy 4yo brown son of Gone West. This horse has retained near-perfect form throughout his entire 10-race career. That is, this horse never has missed the board. That’s four wins, four seconds and two shows in 10 races, a perfect 10-for-10 and a darn nice show parlay by now. Enough for playing it safe in allowances and non-graded stakes, however. Word on the backstretch is that none other than 2007 TOTY Squirrel wandered over to Bill’s barn the other day, and pointed to B Minus. “Run him in the Grade I,” she said. Bill, conservative by nature, hesitated. “I don’t really see him as a Grade I horse,” he said. “She says he is. We’ll see.” After consistent, closing finishes to hit the board in three straight non-gradeds ranging in distance from 9.5 furlongs to a mile and a half, Bill is going to, ahem, gamble. It’s a Grade I roll of the dice at nine furlongs. “B Minus
When last seen going a mile and an eighth in a Grade I, leading Arkansas jockey V. Cabaniss was forced to get a taxi ride home from the head of the stretch while aboard BLACKJACK CAT, who tries the same trick here for At The Wire Thoroughbreds. Blackjack Cat is a committed speedball whose early foot is indeed impressive. This 4yo son of Tactical Cat has proven himself capable of getting clear of just about any class of race the Sim has to offer. Staying there? That’s a different story. He was saved by the wire last out in a track-restricted allowance going only seven furlongs, so it was nice to see the horse finally win a race. Normally, he’s been alternating between graded races and allowances, throwing out the anchor with equal aplomb. He could set it up good for the closers in here as he is a very effective rabbit. Who knows? He does have blazing speed and maybe one day he’ll keep going.
The first of two entries from the Black Label Stables is SHADES OF GOLD. Both of these horses are 4yos by Seeking the Gold. Both are sprinters in poor form stretching way out in distance. Shades of Gold is a nice horse, if maybe not at nine furlongs. He is very fast in the early stages of sprint races, and can be expected to fire and fall back here. I think what has happened with several of the horses in here is that word has gotten around this week about the short Grade I field in Kentucky. I think a couple of the trainers in here scoured their barns for anything that could run in the race, and came up with horses that are ill-suited for it.
If the sun refuse to shine, the Black Label Stables don’t mind. They’ve got IF SIX WAS NINE, as did Jimi Hendrix. With a pedigree like SEEKING THE GOLD x SAINT BALLADO x DAMASCUS, it very well could be true that this sprinting 4yo wouldn’t mind a rainy, no-sunshine day and an off track. As yet, we do not know. None of If Six Was Nine’s 15 career races have been on anything but a fast track. It’s another fast track for the horse here Saturday. In considering this horse’s chances in this race, the first thing that is going to jump out to any handicapper is the fact that this horse has been competing at races going six and seven furlongs, not nine. Well, maybe that’s not the first thing. The first thing is the poor current form, with the horse losing badly four in a row now. I don’t know what the answer is, but it’s probably not jumping all the way to Grade I and nine furlongs.
The other horse which Squirrel has dropped into this race from the Pierchinski Stables is GR THRASHING. In 27 career races, this 5yo son of Storm Cat never has cracked the triple-digit speed figure barrier. I think that’s a pretty safe elimination from a Grade I race, don’t you?
A flurry of late entries Wednesday prevented Tsunami from running more than one bum for the lousy 10 BPs, but it’s a testament to the overall shaky quality of this field that one of them made it in. I’m not even going to mention the horse’s name, because what difference does it make?
GOOD LUCK EVERYBODY!!!!