Appropriately Heads Betting in Epsom G3
Race 13 on this week’s Epsom card is The Joisy Stakes. This Grade 3 series dates back to 2002, and has been run here since, with the exception of 2003, when it relocated to
As can be seen below, the race has not left a huge list of household names. While none of the winners have gone on to secure the accolade of an eclipse award, several of the runners have gone on to higher achievements.
Let’s revisit history with a quick look at the earlier winners of the eleven furlong events:
2002 – R.I.P Saddie – Unholy – 1.22.0 – 109 – Retired winner of $251k.
2003 (
2004 – Senorita Rapida – Citycowboy – 1.22.0 – 110 – Retired winner of $585k. Dam of three, but none as yet of black type quality.
2005 – In The Evening – Duke – 1.22.0 – 103 – Retired winner of $1.1m.
2006 – Two Storms – Maryfran – 1.21.8 – 106 – active winner of $757k.
2007 – Legendary Lemon – Hardnfast – 1.21.8 – 107 – active winner of $868k.
Historically we see that this race is a generally one of pure speed. No winner, in the history of The Joisy Stakes, has failed to return a triple digit speed rating. In fact, the lowest winner returned a 103, while the race record belongs to Quiet Ruler (2003) who posted a 1.21.6 when the race was run at
Let’s work through the formguide for this year’s event:
The inside gate holds Danish Law and, with four stakes victories on his scorecard, he’s well and truly earned the right to take his place in this. Unlike a couple of his opponents, however, he has a bit of improvement to find to be a winning chance this weekend. Three starts back he scored a personal best when registering a 97 winning in
From stall 2 jumps Paint Me Silver, a previous winner under exactly the same conditions he faces this weekend. His career highlight to date is his win at this track in January when he secured the major spoils in the G3-Roasting Weanies Stakes, the middle pin of three consecutive black type victories. He’s been a tad disappointing in the two runs since, but has taken home a cheque on both occasions. He was closing last start over six and a half, so the return to seven furlongs will be no disadvantage. Paint Me Silver is a cleverly named son of Badge of Silver from Paint Me Blue (Mineshaft / Machiavellian). He’s the first offspring of a mare who didn’t quite live up to her own blood, winning three minor races in a twenty seven race career, but who has already made amends in the shed by dropping this smart colt. Looking for concerns, the Grade three win was posted in 1.22.6, somewhat shy of the likely requirement this weekend. Many of his opponents have already posted triple digits, while this fellow has yet to do so. He’s not far off however and although he needs a personal best, there’s nothing to say he can’t produce it. He’ll drop right out early and although I can’t put the Sasscass bred and trained colt into the top selections, he’s earned his place, he likes this track and a solid closing run will come as no surprise.
B Baun has drawn 3 and lines up with an astonishing record of ten wins from just thirteen starts. How many boxes does he tick here? For starters, he’s never lost two in a row in his life, and he comes into this off one of his rare defeats. He’s proven at this level of racing, having taken home the trophy for the G3-Alec and Stephen Stakes at this track back in March. Three consecutive triple digits before his surprise flop last time out answers any question about the pace. So that’s speed, class and consistency all covered. Opposition trainers may be able to take slight heart from the fact that one of his three defeats was at his only prior run over this seven furlong trip, but those same trainers won’t want their hoops letting this fellow have too much of a comfortable run in the lead. It’s far more likely that he just won’t stop. B Baun is son of Old Deuteronomy (a sire I believe we’ll hear a lot more from) based on Bonavista (Machiavellian / Danzig), a moderately performed winner of four from thirty two. The family traces back four generations (all male) and this colt is the best performing of the dynasty to date. Trainer / breeder Mano2 will be hoping the inside colt will surrender the lead without the need to overtax this fellow early, and if he can dictate terms, he’ll prove very tough to run down. Given his strike rate, he represents very good value at 6/1.
Mambo Mine will exit the 4 barrier, as he looks to regain the form which saw him developing into one of the elite as a juvenile. Lining up for just his fourth start this year, he’s working his way back into the form we witnessed towards the end of last year. Scratchbred by Jockeymax7 using the top quality blood of Mineshaft / Kingmambo / Nijinsky, he began his career with a couple of runs on the dirt, before the switch in surface produced an immediate spike in performances. Although he’s won just the one black type event, and that a listed stakes, his career highlight came at his last run of 2007, when he ran third in
Barrier 5 is the starting gate for Why Protest, an up and comer who needs to find a few lengths on his previous best, but he’s had just the three runs on the grass, and is showing solid improvement as he matures. He takes on a field of more seasoned performers this week, and given that his two attempts at ungraded racing have not produced a win, he may be aiming a bit high. Now, in the search for positives. One of those stakes runs was over eight and a half furlongs and he was beaten by a double figure margin. Returned to sprinting, he showed plenty of fight before being run down late. On exposed form he looks a couple of lengths short of the standard needed here, but he’s finished ITM five from six. His sprint record is a win and two seconds from three and at this early stage of his career, he may still be able to produce a significant boost to his previous personal best form. Why Protest is a scratchbred son of Bernadini / Gone West / Pleasant Colony. Breeder / trainer Borrow2 will be looking to have him settle midfield in the run. I feel he’s taking on too many horses with too much established superior form, but with just the few runs on the surface, it’s quite possible he’ll run a better race than his outsider’s quote would lead us to expect.
Drawn in gate 6, we find Vespucci. A tale of two horses. Although he won two black type events over eight and a half furlongs as a juvenile, his sprinting record is far superior, as evidenced by his four wins and one second from five runs over the shorter trips. Looking at 2008 without delving too deeply, and he appears to be a ‘hot one day, cold the next’ sort of colt. But look a little deeper and it’s really more ‘hot in the sprints, cold in the routes’. Despite having had four unplaced runs in graded company, this is the first time he’s tackled a Graded Sprint. Vespucci is a son of champion sire Storm Cat, based on Valamar (Gold Legend / Northern Dancer), a grade 1 winner whose eight victories all came on the grass. This one has obviously shown the same surface preference tendencies to connections, and since he’s scored five black type wins from his eleven runs, it’s almost impossible to argue. Breeder / trainer Jbfarms will be expecting to see the colt settle towards the rear early before storming home. While some may state that he’s unproven (or even failed) as a Graded performer, I’ll take the line that he’s a top sprinter, and therefore a top chance this week. The bookmakers obviously agree and are taking no risks, keeping him safe at 6/1 and denying the betting students any value in a colt they may have expected to sneak in under the radar.
Gate 7 is the starting position for Road Not Taken, an unlucky colt who regularly finds ways of getting beaten, as evidenced from his six seconds in his thirteen start career. As we’d expect when looking at his bloodlines, his early juvenile program was set on the dirt, with an extension to route racing in line with the normal hopeful road to the Triple Crown. Although handy on the dirt (three stakes ITM’s, two of them over the route trips), connections decided his future lay in turf sprinting (although the way he tends to finish on, a bit of ground in the future may still be on the cards). But we’ll get to his grass scoreline. In eight starts he’s yet to go home empty handed, finishing first twice and second five times. It’s the two most recent starts which entice confidence for this week. Over this seven furlong journey two starts back, he comfortably accounted for an ungraded stakes field, before running home strongly for second in his most recent appearance, the G2-Snake Eyes. With consecutive triple digit speed ratings at his last two, he’s shown that he has both the class and the ability to be a threat here. A son of Storm Cat, he’s based on the Grade 3 winner Political Patriot (Machiavellian / Deputy Minister), who raced for breeder Focusforce during his thirty seven race career, winning on ten occasions. Road Not Taken may be posted out a bit early, if he gets caught up in the tactical battle for midfield positions, but he is sure to be in the mix at the business end of the race.
Glorious Sunset, drawn 8, is currently racing in the best form of his career, which is a big statement given that in twelve races he’s never gone home without a cheque, and he’s taken home the winner’s share five times. Handy enough in his first three races on the dirt, his speed figures took an instant spike once he changed surfaces. A winner twice in ungraded company, three and four starts ago, he then put in a sub-par effort and was sent back to the allowance for a confidence boosting easy run. Coming into this with three wins from his last four, it’s hard to rate him as anything but a solid chance. Those looking for weaknesses will point out the fact that he’s gone around at prohibitive odds in small fields in each of those three wins, perhaps over-glorifying his efforts given the standard of opposition. In his defence, he needs only beat whatever turns up, and there are no bonuses for winning margins. Glorious Sunset is a son of Mineshaft from Misty Sunset (Danzig / Alydar). The dam was a lightly raced winner of three from fourteen, and breeder / trainer Londoner was so impressed with the result of this first mating, that the mare was returned to Mineshaft to produce this years two year old Sunrise Sunset, who makes his debut in Norway this week. I’d expect this colt to move forward early, settle within a couple of lengths of the leading bunfight, and to be close up when it matters.
Barrier 9 is allocated to Crezzino. A Grade 1 winner he automatically commands respect when presented in a race of lower classification. In mid September last year he was stamping himself as one of the stars of the future, and although he’s tarnished his reputation a tad since that early onslaught, he’s been racing in solid enough form to stake a real claim here. His career highlight, victory in
The outside gate is reserved for Appropriately, a multiple stakeswinner lining up for his first tilt at the Graded opposition, following a more than solid grounding in ungraded company. After showing promise in his first four runs on the dirt, connections decided on a switch of surface, and since then his posted five wins, a second and a third, all in stakes races. There is just nothing to fault in his form thus far, but the best guide to his chances here can be gathered from his
Summary and Selections:
A really tough event to try and summarise, as there are so many variables and possibilities. Eight of the runners are at odds of 9/1 or less and I think it’s fair enough to concentrate on them. Danish Law and Why Protest would need significant improvements on their previous bests, while requiring sub-par efforts from too many of their opponents. It’s possible, but not likely. Mambo Mine looks to be retuning to the form which won him a Grade 1, so bettors looking for value should consider him. Paint Me Silver has proven himself over these conditions here, so he can’t be dismissed. Glorious Sunset may be underrated in the market, due to the moderate opposition he’s been beating, so he’s a another potential bet for those seeking a bit of value. B Baun has clearly the best strike rate and alongside the favourite, is one of only two with three triple digits on the formpage. Vespucci is a last start stakeswinner who still looks to have upside. Road Not Taken is consistent, and dropping back in class from a top run. Crezzino has covered this distance faster than any of his opponents and Appropriately simply doesn’t run bad races.
B Baun to win. Great record. Great price
Road Not Taken for second. Drops in class. Top two seven of eight on the grass.
Appropriately for third. Deserving favourite, but I don’t like tipping favourites.
The Market:
9/2 – Appropriately
5/1 – Road Not Taken, Crezzino
6/1 – B Baun, Vespucci
7/1 – Glorious Sunset
8/1 – Paint Me Silver
Qualification Order – Class Rating Position:
Crezzino – 6
B Baun – 17
Paint Me Silver – 20
Appropriately – 22
Road Not Taken – 27
Danish Law – 37