A Claiming Odyssey (part-1)
One of the most intriguing aspects of this outstanding game of horseracing that Mike has so generously shared with us, is the fact, that the horses actually form-fully respond almost exactly as they do in real life with respect to their own inherent abilities.
What I’d like to contribute in this article is to share with you some of my insights in to some of the least understood and closely guarded concepts in the world of making successful claims. What I’m going to try to accomplish here is to share enough of my strategies, and ideals, that I’m confident that not only those of you that very infrequently, if ever, use the claiming box will benefit, but also the more experienced trainers will glean a lot of new aspects that will hopefully open up new avenues and ideas that will make the game even more exciting and fun.
One thing that I recommend to make this article more interesting and easier to understand and follow is to open up another Simulated Sports window and click the “VIEW HORSE” icon and enter I.D. # 35044, that is the I.D. # of the horse whose performances we’ll be breaking down here. Next click the “Click here for Lifetime PP’s” button so the horses entire racing history will be in view. Now you will be able to scrutinize and follow the information, which I’ll be giving here.
The hardest type of horse to pull the trigger and spend the bigger $25,000 and up claiming bucks on is the veteran horse, (male or female) that is four years and older and has ( 25 ) or more races in their past performances. Firstly, they’re usually here because they haven’t been running well recently and secondly the present owner who has trained them in their better days, fears that they may be starting their performance decline that eventually leads to the lowest claim levels and/or retirement.
Our subject for this topic is a ( 5 ) year old horse, King James, from my wife Linda’s, cheech stable. As you can see we claimed him at the end of his ( 4 ) year old campaign, out of a $35,000 claimer with a condition of non-winners of ( 2 ) races in nine months. At the time, he had ( 30 ) races under his belt. A quick glance at his ( 5 ) previous races reveals ( 3 ) bad performances and ( 2 ) mediocre performances where he finished 4th and 5th respectively against middle grade allowance runners. So what motivated me to spend $35,000 sim bucks and ( 70 ) hard earned breeding points on this fading runner.
Here’s what I look for and some rules of thumb that I use when I evaluate these higher priced older horses:
1.) Number of career starts: A lot of trainers are leery of claiming a horse with 25 or more starts, especially if the horse is 5 years old & older, as they are worried that there skills may be on the decline. My arbitrary cutoff is ( 45 ) races if the claiming price is $20,000 or more. As you can see King James has ( 41 ) races under his belt and is still capable of competing at the $40,000 – $50,000 level.
2.) A competitive speed figure: I like to see a competitive speed figure in the horses last ( 5 ) races, especially if the figure was earned in a race that was at a higher class level than the claiming level of the current race. If you look at King James last ( 5 ) races before we claimed him the figures were: 90, 101, 59, 91 and 90 respectively. The ( 101 ) jumps out at you, especially in light of the fact that it was earned against $24,300 Conditioned Allowance runners. The 101 speed figure would be competitive at any high claiming level.
3.) Surface Versatility: It really pays to open up and take a look at the horses entire Past Performance Portfolio, a wonderful feature that Mike has added this year, as it gives you an overview of a horses entire career and allows you to thoroughly scrutinize and evaluate a horses total potential. Many times I will spot a horse that earlier in their career has won their Maiden on the dirt and then the trainer will give the horse a try vs. Allowance company, the horse runs a respectable speed figure say for example a 72, however it finishes 6th out of 14 runners, so the trainer returns the horse to the dirt and has some success and never tries the turf again. King James only ran on the turf once, at first glance it looks dismal, a 59 as a ( 4 ) year old, would give you the impression he has no turf ability at all. However upon closer scrutiny, it was in an almost impossible situation for a first turf try. It was at a distance ( 10 ) furlongs that was obviously beyond King James capabilities, he failed in ( 5 ) previous tries at ( 9 ) furlongs on the dirt. Furthermore it was against a very high level of Conditioned Allowance runners, higher in fact than he had failed against in his previous ( 2 ) dirt races. Even though I didn’t try the turf yet with King James, it’s a potential option, especially if he begins to slide down the class ladder. Successful claiming is all about options.
4.) Distance Versatility: Another trait that I really prefer when I claim a horse at any level is the ability to be competitive at a wide range of distances. This is where it really pays to look over a horses entire Past Performance Portfolio, looking over King James resume’, I noted that he had won races between ( 6 ) and ( 8.5 ) furlongs. I also noted the fact that his previous trainer had entered him at ( 8.5 ) to ( 10 ) furlongs in his last six races as a four year old and the only time he was entered at a distance and level he could handle ( 6.5 ) furlongs against mid-level Conditioned Allowance runners he ran a very respectable 103 speed figure, which would make him competitive against any claiming level. Again I can’t stress enough, the more options, the better the claiming potential.
5.) Racing Style: This trait is probably the most desired, and the least utilized in the Sim. I really like to develop and take advantage of a horse that can alter their running style from race to race, there are many situations in the Sim where you can take an advantage of a lack of, or over abundance of, early speed in a field. I generally downgrade a horse that only has ( 1 ) dimensional style, either the need to lead early or a deep closer that needs the horses to come back to them. If you look at King James past performance races 1740.0315 and 1740.0707, they jump out at you. In 1740.0315 ( 8 ) furlongs against Grade-3 Stakes company, King James broke 7th in the field of 14 and made a steady gain to finish a respectable 3rd only beaten ( 1 ¼ ) lengths. His next race 1740.0707, also at ( 8 ) furlongs, also against Stakes runners King James immediately shot to the lead and just missed by a head, both good efforts. This was the clincher that made me feel I could exploit to make King James competitive in the high level claiming level.
We claimed King James out of a $35,000 non-winners of ( 2 ) year claimer, he started 8th early and ran a steady but uncompetitive 83 and passed several tiring horses to finish a well beaten 5th ( 12 ¼ ) lengths behind the winner. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for a claim, but I felt he could still be useful and compete at this level and higher. Here is a race by race review of my plan of attack and the results:
Race 2342.5703: $50,000 Open Claimers ( 9 ) furlongs: At first glance I know it appears that this is a ridiculous move, but my plan was to move King James up the class ladder and I felt he could eventually be competitive against the $50,000 – $75,000 level. I used this race to do ( 3 ) things. First I wanted to see if King James could compete with these early, secondly I wanted to “sharpen” up his early speed, and third I wanted to “bury” that 101 speed figure. Jockey Option Setting was 80% Result: he flashed decent early speed 3rd – 4th early and finished up 7th of ( 9 ), about what I expected ( 82 ) speed fig.
Race 2356.6207: $50,000 Open Claimers ( 8 ) furlongs: Another tune-up race again I wanted to “sharpen” him up for my ultimate goal a 6 ½ – 7 ½ furlong vs. $35,000 – $40,000 Conditioned Claimers. Jockey Option Setting was 90%
Result: he pressured the leader for ( 6 ) furlongs in 2nd but gave up in the stretch to finish 7th beaten 10 ½ lengths ( 89 ) speed fig.
Race 2370.8214: $50,000 Conditioned Claimers ( 8.5 ) furlongs: My plan was to give King James a ( 6 ) – ( 7 ) week rest, however this is one of those situations where King James came up “sharp” without me setting the option, so I had no plan and although there was no appropriate race available, I decided to race him, even though I really didn’t want to race him over ( 8 ) furlongs. Jockey Option Setting was 60%
Result: he never fired, started 7th and finished 7th, in a field of ( 14 ) and ran a lackluster ( 81 ) speed fig
Race 2433.8209: $35,000 Conditioned Claimers ( 6.5 ) furlongs: I gave King James a ( 9 ) week rest and finally found an ideal spot for him, my only hope was that his last race was an aberration and that he would be fresh and ready to go. I also hoped that I could take advantage of his running style versatility as there was a lot of early speed in this field. Jockey Option Setting was 40%
Result: Perfect, just as I hoped King James started 10th and flew by the early leaders in the stretch to win by 1 ¼ lengths drawing away late in a field of ( 14 ) and ran an impressive ( 98 ) speed fig confirming my assessment that he belonged at the high level claimers.
Race 2436.5701: $150,000 Conditioned Claimers ( 7.5 ) furlongs: King James came up “sharp” the very next week after his victory so I decided to roll the dice and see what the King would do at a much higher level. Jockey Option Setting was 30%
Result: I had no expectations here but when King James broke 6th in this high level field of ( 8 ) and hung in to finish 4th and get me a minor slice, I felt confident that the King could handle the $40,000 to $60,000 crowd. Speed fig was ( 91 )
Race 2482.6713: $100,000 Conditioned Claimers ( 8.5 ) furlongs: After a ( 6 ) week layoff, this was strictly a tune-up race for King James to freshen him for my next target a $50,000 claiming race in ( 3 ) weeks, it’s the only race King James wasn’t sharp and raced ready to go. Jockey Option Setting was 40%
Result: a pleasant surprise, the King started 9th and finished 6th, in a field of ( 14 ) and ran a creditable ( 87 ) speed fig setting him up perfectly for the next event.
Race 2503.5703: $50,000 Conditioned Claimers ( 6 ) furlongs: This was my target and I felt King James was ready for a good effort, I also decided to take advantage of his versatile running style, at ( 6 ) furlongs he needed to be closer to the early pace. Jockey Option Setting was 70%.
Result: the King broke exactly where I wanted him 4th, stalked the early speed, passing the tired leaders, but couldn’t hold off a hard-charging closer and finished 2nd, in the field of ( 14 ) running a competitive ( 95 ) speed fig, confirming that the $35,000 – $60,000 level was where he belonged.
Race 2545.5708: $50,000 Conditioned Claimers ( 6 ) furlongs: I brought the King right back in the same company, I actually wanted a ( 6 ½ ) or ( 7 ) furlong event, but couldn’t find one. Jockey Option Setting was 70%.
Result: the King broke 4th again, but the early speed was tougher here, but even though he didn’t fire, he also didn’t quit and hung on resolutely to finish 4th, ( 3 ) lengths behind the winner, regressing a bit to an ( 88 ) speed fig.
Race 2576.5702: $40,000 Conditioned Claimers ( 6.5 ) furlongs: This is the race I felt was a perfect spot for King James, just the right level and distance. Looking over the Past Performances for the field, a concept I recommend everyone do, I noticed a lack of real early speed so again I decided to take advantage of the King’s versatile style, and run him close to the early pace, where I hoped his determination and grit would allow him to outlast the other early runner. Jockey Option Setting was 90%.
Result: Perfect, King James started right on the flank of the early leader put him away entering the stretch and drew away by 2 ½ lengths earning a ( 97 ) speed fig confirming his class level.
Race 2594.5006: $40,000 Starter Allowance ( 6 ) furlongs: Again, here was a week where King James came up “sharp” on his own, I really wasn’t going to run him, but when I saw this race where he fit the conditions and the small field of ( 5 ), I felt confident he would at least bring me a top ( 3 ) to justify the entry. Also there was a lack of early speed with his ( 2 ) major challengers both the late closing type. Jockey Option Setting was 90%.
Result: This race was a nice unexpected surprise and a ringing testimony to examining the Past Performances of the race your entered in, King James went right to the lead, easily disposing of the ( 2 ) lower class challengers that tried to run with him early, and held on as the higher class horses rallied to late to score a 1 ½ length victory, earning a respectable ( 92 ) speed fig.
Hopefully, this article will open up new avenues of thought when it comes to claiming, and you won’t disregard the older higher priced horses, always think options when looking at a potential claim, the more options the better!! Also remember that in the claiming game, your going to have some failures, about ( 1 ) in ( 4 ) that I claim disappoints me, but that just makes it sweeter when you uncover that gem that exceeds your expectations.
09/15/05 Species48