Many Chances in New South Wales Bonanza
Race 15 on this week’s
As can be seen below, the race has not left a huge list of household names. With the exception of Provellian, who took out the inaugural running, the honour board has become occupied by solid, honest fillies, rather than those of the upper echelon.
Let’s revisit history with a quick look at the earlier winners of the eleven furlong events:
2001– Provellian – Philcan2 – 2.18.6 – 92 – Retired winner of $2.4m. Eclipse Award winner. Dam of six including three stakes winners; Twelfth Hour (Colonial Affair), herself dam of SP 2yo Nini’s Girl (Bandini), Vell’s Magic (Kayf Tara) and Casper’s Nightmare (Ghostzapper)
2002 – Kurrajong – Erdiya – 2.19.0 – 90 – Retired winner of $343k. Dam of two, featuring no black type
2003 – Time Clock – Riverdance – 2.18.6 – 92 – Retired winner of $647k. Dam of four, with this year’s two year old Red Time (Red Ransom) an unbeaten stakeswinner from just two starts.
2004 – Venom – Unworldlyl – 2.16.4 – 107 – Active winner of $272k.
2005 – Bonersaur – Ksparrow11 – 2.18.0 – 92 – Retired winner of $913k. Dam of two. Featuring no black type.
2006 – Grassy Smeltzer – Godmama – 2.18.4 – 90 – active winner of $560k.
2007 – Slinging Rock – Lenny13 – 2.17.4 – 96 – active winner of $307k.
Historically we see that this race is a generally one of tactics rather than speed. Only once has the winner needed to post a triple digit rating. With the exception of Venom (2004) who scorched a 2.16.4, the winning times have varied from 2.17.4 to 2.19.0. Therefore it’s virtually impossible to set a minimum requirement which the eventual winner needs to target.
Let’s work through the formguide for this year’s event:
Yes Another Bonnie will depart from the inside gate, and although she’s established a preference for this distance, she looks to be tilting at windmills against this opposition. On the bright side, she’s finished on the podium in all but one of her half dozen tests on the grass, she added significantly to her previous best speed numbers last time out and she’s run first and second at two attempts at the eleven furlong journey. That’s the good news. She’s had eight starts, and it took seven of them to overcome the maiden classification. Last time out, despite trying gallantly, she failed to close the gap in a very cheap NW2L allowance. Yes Another Bonnie is a daughter of Septieme Ciel, the fourth foal of that sire from Dancing the Star (Risen Star / Northern Dancer), breeder / trainer Coroner’s lightly raced dam of two previous stakes placed foals. Sister Bonnie Blue Lass placed twice in black type events, while brother Bonnie’s Lil Bro is still racing well under different ownership. Current four year old Dancing Bonnie is showing stakes potential on the dirt, while this one may eventually emulate her older sibling’s feats. They all get better with experience, but I doubt that this filly can improve enough to be a threat this week. The barrier proves of little consequence, as she’ll drop out early, but will at least have the advantages of the inside during the run.
Gate 2 is the starting position for Lay Gloom, a filly who, despite being a dual stakeswinner as a juvenile, has grown another leg since being claimed by Lgbost just three starts ago. Since joining her new yard, she’s had only the three runs, improving from third to second to, at her most recent run, a winning performance over a mile and a half at the ungraded stakes level. Despite a pedigree loaded with turf distance, and a black type victory at her only grass route try as a two year old, her previous mentor continually experimented with dirt and persevered with shorter events. She’s now thriving over these longer trips, running sensational times and quickly making a name for herself as a genuine stayer. A daughter of the more-than-handy young son of Sunday Silence, Layman, the remainder of her scratchbred pedigree includes Blushing John and Relko. She’ll be looking to settle just beyond midfield in this as top jockey R.Dowell patiently sets her up for a big finish. She’s one of the top chances
Financial Impact lines up in gate 3, looking to make amends, following her sixth of ten in the nine furlong equivalent event five weeks ago. Prior to that she’d strung five successive wins together, and although a couple of them were in small fields, she was winning convincingly, and recording smart times. She lines up here a dual stakeswinner and a victor of five of her seven trips to the track. If she perhaps lacks a little experience compared to some of her opponents, she lacks nothing on the score of achievement. A daughter of the talented Japanese son of Sunday Silence in Deep Impact, she’s the first foal of the Okiedokie exclusive mare, Finance Minister II (Deputy Minister / Buckpasser). Financial Impact has already outperformed her dam, a moderately performed winner of three from seventeen and just shy of seventy thousand dollars. Although unlikely to want to lead, she’s won ‘pillar to post’ in the past, so her versatile options only enhance her chances. The only minor concern for connections surrounds the fact that she’s as yet unproven over this extra furlong and a half, whereas a number of her opponents have established their liking for the longer trip.
Barrier 4 is the starting gate for Sake, a filly with questions to answer, but also a filly who has proven that she can go fast enough to be a threat. Unlike many of her opponents this week, she’s yet to venture beyond nine and a half. Therein lies the major question. But she won that nine and a half furlong ungraded stake, and in that win provides perhaps the answer for this week. She returned a triple digit speed rating in collecting that event two starts back, something all but one of her opponents have yet to achieve. Last time out she appeared in the first of this series of Filly Turf Bonanza races, and although finishing just fourth, she made up almost six lengths on the winner, Enter Shikari in the straight, indicating that she was probably looking for even further. Again she registered triple digits. Yes she has a question to answer, but she’s done more than enough to suggest she’s capable of answering it, and the oddsmakers agree with her chances, installing her as second favourite. Breeder / trainer 2tohold put this filly together by combining the blood of Dynaformer / Danzig / Alydar from scratch. She’s likely to be giving away plenty of ground mid race, but B. Sinstead is a most competent rider, and a storming final few hundred metres will come as no surprise.
Barrier 5 is allocated to Deep Quest. This filly is the real enigma in the race. She’s the top qualifier for this event, and yet she’ll run around at double figure odds, a longer price than seven of her opponents in a ten horse contest. Let’s analyze the cases for and against.
She can win because: As mentioned already, she’s the top qualifier. She demolished a stakes field open to males and females, over this distance at her last start. She’s had three starts over a mile and a quarter or more and won all three.
She can’t win because: The stakes win was against just three opponents. The two allowance wins were in fields of five and ten. Her times are significantly slower than those posted by some of her opposition.
Now I’ve always been a believer in the ‘you don’t go faster than you need to’ theory, so I’m very much in the camp of the affirmative. And at the odds on offer it’s virtually impossible to leave her out of the exotics. There’s nothing in her blood to suggest she won’t go even further than this, as Deep Impact / Rainbow Quest / Sadler’s Wells is about as strong a turf long mix as anybody could hope to obtain. Trainer / breeder Punter69 has found the key to this promising filly, and she’ll be ridden by the top rider in the state. If you like her, jump on. You may not see this price again.
From stall 6 jumps Tiger and Dell, a filly who took a long time to learn what racing is all about, but who has more than learnt the ropes in her four most recent starts. Yes, just four starts back, at her eighth career run, she ended a string of frustrating minor placings, finally greeting the judge to lose her maiden status. Connections were clearly never in any doubt of the inevitable result following three seconds and three thirds from six tries on the grass (the obligatory attempt on the dirt producing her only unplaced result). Since then she’s had no trouble in graduating to stakes level, taking out two allowances before her most recent second at her first attempt at ungraded stakes racing. Ordinarily a concern (the fact that she’s never won a black type race normally having a detrimental effect when analyzing a Graded race), her future at this level appears as inevitable as that initial maiden win. Tiger and Dell is a daughter of Desert King from Make a Mint (Belong to Me / Mr. Prospector). She’s the best performed offspring of the lightly raced (two wins from fourteen) mare. Trained and owned by Buckpasser, she’s a filly on the way up and just a small improvement on her most recent effort will make her quote look more than generous.
Gate 7 is the starting position for Bodog Bandit. There can be no doubting at all this filly’s ability to handle the distance, as the mile and a half last race was not far enough. She was doing by far her best work in the G1-Adelaide Oaks five weeks ago, making more than ten lengths in the last half of that race. Her overall record presents a real conundrum. As already suggested, she looks like she may eventually want two miles, but she’s yet to greet the judge in half a dozen route tries, while her sprint record reads five wins and three seconds from eight runs. I guess versatility is a nice problem to have! Bodog Bandit is a daughter of Unbridled’s Song from Dandy Wells (Danehill / Sadler’s Wells). As a stakeswinner already, she’s outperformed both her dam, and her older half brother Silver Buckle (Silver Ghost), who both carry the SP achievement. She’s a real problem to assess here. We know she won’t be going backwards late in the race, and she’s dropping back in class from that Grade 1 classic last time out, but she still wears that 0/6 route record, and this is a tough group of fillies to overcome in order to correct that stat. I’ll be watching her without financial interest, but, like breeder / trainer Turfking32, I won’t be surprised to see her motoring home impressively when it counts.
Sweet Sacrifice, drawn 8, heads the betting in this event, and she’s put plenty on the formpage to prove that she deserves that position. A better than 50% win strike rate with six wins from eleven. Five of those wins coming from her last six attempts. She boasts the highest speed rating of any filly in the race, and she’s a last start stakeswinner. Now those who don’t like backing the favourite also have a bit of ammunition here. Although she’s tasted victory up to nine and a half furlongs, she’s never tried further, a small concern in a race where most of her best performed opposition have. Students of the videos will notice that she seems to have had enough at the end of her races, as something always looks to be going home better than she. Of course, that is probably just jockeys easing up once they know the race is over, but it could cause concern with those worried about backing the top fancy. Sweet Sacrifice is a daughter of Touch Gold from the more than handy broodmare Carby Prospector. The dam’s previous offspring include million dollar earner Dubai Prospector (Essece of Dubai), SW Hold Et Buster (Street Cry) and SP Follow The Flag (Pulpit). Although drawn wide, nothing beginning inside her will want to set the pace, so she’ll cross comfortably to the rail and defy the opposition to run her down. She’s the one they have to beat
Drawn in gate 9, we find Look at the Stars. Although a winner of just two of her nine starts, she’s shown increasing ability as the races have become longer. She boasts a pair of seconds in ungraded company among the four times she’s finished runner up, and last time out she took on Grade 1 opposition, where she wasn’t disgraced in finishing fourth behind Pelennor Fields in the G1-Adelaide Oaks. Of some concern is an apparent reluctance to see her races out right to the line, a possible problem in an event where so many will be storming home. Look at the Stars is a daughter of Medicean, the first progeny of I Hate You (Peintre Celebre / A.P. Indy) an underperforming winner of just two races in thirty five runs. I’m concerned that she’s drawn so wide, given that the filly immediately inside her is unlikely to let this one wrest the lead. A tough run early will set her up as a target for those finishing on late, and although the Oaks start will have toughened her up, I just feel that there are too many ‘what if’ scenarios to recommend Stablefred’s bred and raced filly with any great confidence.
Sky’s Gray alights from the widest position as she looks to strike her first blow for the year. A winner of three races as a juvenile, she’s falling just short of her early promise, delivering a mixed bag of results thus far in 2008, but without yet managing to taste success. Five runs this year have seen her runner-up twice and third last time out, but generally she’s been racing in smallish fields, and her last start ungraded third was a seven and a half length defeat in a field of four. Although generally not far away, she’s yet to taste black type success and she needs to find a few lengths on her previous best to topple this week’s opposition. A daughter of Sky Classic, there’s plenty to like in the blood, with dam Cozy Mambo carrying Cozzene / Kingmambo lines. Mum was a stakes placed winner of six from forty one, and her progeny are following in her footsteps. Earlier produce Green Cozzonare (
Summary and Selections:
We’ll try and whittle down the chances through a process of elimination, although I should have learned by now that this process is fraught with danger and can become embarrassing. Yes Another Bonnie is the longest in the betting, and I think the early market is not far out here. Tiger and Dell and Deep Quest are the next longest price wise, but I think they’re both underrated by the market, so we’ll come back to them later. Bodog Bandit is next working upwards through the market, and while I can’t tip her in the top three, she’ll run a better race than her price suggests. I can’t help but feel that the two at 8/1 should be longer prices, as they both have to step up to the plate. Look at the Stars and Sky’s Gray both have ability but don’t make the top picks. Lay Gloom keeps getting better in the new yard and I’m not willing to underestimate her strong chances. Financial Impact is likely to bounce back from her last hiccup and is a serious threat. Sake can almost certainly be relied upon to produce another triple digit run, while Sweet Sacrifice has the highest career speed rating in the race, and deserves to be at the top of the market with her consistent winning form.
Sake to win. It’s a tough call, but she looks to have plenty of upside.
I’m a sucker for a good price, and 11/1 about a filly who’s unbeaten at these distances is too tempting. Deep Quest for second
On the same theme. The last run was a top effort. A repeat and she’s a real threat. Tiger and Dell for third.
The Market:
3/1 – Sweet Sacrifice
7/2 – Sake
5/1 – Financial Impact
7/1 – Lay Gloom
8/1 – Look at the Stars, Sky’s Gray
Qualification Order – Class Rating Position:
Deep Quest – 20
Lay Gloom – 24
Tiger and Dell – 45
Bodgit Bandit – 68
Financial Impact – 83
Sweet Sacrifice – 123