Black West & Celebritry Swain are co-favorites in NY Island Cap
Just about 2 hours before the final leg of the Triple Crown the crowd of 100,000 plus are going to be treated to a spectacular race. To say the mile and a quarter NY Island Cap is in the shadow of the 2 bigger 3 year old only races is an over-statement. The field of 14 turf stars are going to set out to prove that it’s their day to shine. The stakes record was set back in 2002 with a final time of 2:00 2/5 set my Firm Idea. Also 2 Hall of Fame Inductee’s have participated in this race in Sunnybank Memorial and Saddle Dedicate. According to my sources this is going to be a race your not going to want to miss. We have a pretty open betting race here no real clear favorite, so let’s see how the field stacks up against each other.
First up we have High N Black in post position number one trained by Tsunami9
. This is the first of 5 entries by tsunami stables. High N Black is a 8 year old son of High Yield x Stutz Blackhawk x Lion Cavern. He has raced 68 times in his career posting 17 wins. He hasn’t posted a triple digit Speed Figure in over a year and a half. If he was running here 2 years ago I’d say you would have to consider, but it looks like he is in the twilight of his career having run poorly with claimers in the past few. No ChancePP 2 RURAL LAW(IRE) 5/1
D Givins ( 365 – 90 – 63 – 39 – 25% )In post 2 we have Rural Law trained by vettori. This 4 year old son of Law Society (IRE) x Take Risks (FR) x Semipalatinsk is going off at 5/1 with jockey D Givins aboard. Rural Law had a great 3yo season winning multiple Grade 1’s on the turf in the second half of the season. He has been on a little of a hiatus this season only making 1 start in a sprint stakes posting a 95 and wasn’t a factor at all. You have to respect his ability to run in this class and his last race might of been him shaking off the cobwebs. Could bounce back with a big effort with top jock aboard. Have to respect.
PP 3
SEVERE WARNING(IRE) 6/1 W McClendon ( 339 – 81 – 45 – 47 – 24% )Post 3 we see 6/1 choice Severe Warning trained by fairhaven5. The multiple Grade 1 winning son of Theatrical (IRE) x Alydar x Bold Ruler has made 3 starts this year. His 3 year old campaign seen him win some big Grade 1’s while posting multiple triple digit Speed Figures with his best 114 in the Movieland Derby. After talking with fairhaven he assures me he has fully recovered from the injury he suffered 2 back in the Sand Castle Golden Turf Classic. He loves this NY track after winning the GR Simsters Turf here last October and placing 2nd in the Grade 1 New Yorker. Looks to be getting back in form and is dangerous in this spot.
PP 4 TURN TO ROADS(IRE) 23/1 J White ( 357 – 93 – 64 – 55 – 26% )The number 4 is Turn To Roads trained by mrv. This 5 year old son of Fair Mix (IRE) x Strawberry Road(AUS) x Turn-To is making his 6th start of the year and is making a big jump in class. He was claimed 2 back for $30,000 and ran in an Allowance race last race were he finished 3rd as odds on choice. This looked to be a great claim for mrv but he might be a bit optimistic in this spot. Lack of any triple digit Speed Figure in his career worries me to go along with never running in stakes company let alone Graded company. Won’t be a factor
PP 5 FALLING DOWN(IRE) 28/1
P Haynes ( 364 – 80 – 58 – 56 – 22% )In the 5 hole is Falling Down. This is the second entry trained by mrv. The 4 year old son Galileo (IRE) x Sakhee x War Chant is making his first start of a claim for mrv. Great $40,000 claim for the connections but as with the previous entry very optimistic. Falling Down did run in 2 Graded events as a 3 year old. He picked up a 2nd in the Grade 3 Queen’s Flower Pot and was well beaten in the Grade 1 Adelaide Derby. In 22 career starts he has yet to post a triple digit Speed Figure and going from a Claiming race right to a Grade 1 win seems near impossible. There is one positive: he should run better then his stablemate.
PP 6
GOLD DOORS 5/1 B F Abman ( 368 – 82 – 66 – 45 – 22% )In post 6 we have Gold Doors who is trained by crowbar. The 5 year old son of Touch Gold x Once Wild x Stage Door Johnny has run in a number of Grade 1 event but has yet to close the deal. Gold Doors has 4 starts this year all stakes efforts, winning his last with a career best 109 Speed Figure, His 2 lone Grade 1 tries he was beaten by a combined 19 1/4 lengths. It does look as he is hitting his best form as a 5 year old posting 3 consecutive triple digit Speed Figures. It’s hard to pick to win with others who have won at this level before. Still you can’t count him out with how he has been getting better at age 5.
PP 7 DEHENNY(KY)
99/1 V Jennings ( 330 – 80 – 63 – 35 – 24% )In post 7 we have Dehenny trained by tsunami01. this is Tsunami’s 3rd entry in this race. Dehenny the 4 year old daughter of Dehere x Hennessy x Caller I.D has run in 3 Grade 1’s in the past 3 races getting crushed in each race. She is 99/1 and running her 2nd lifetime turf race. Good news is her connections get 10 Breeding points for running last.
PP 8
POINT COUNTERPOINT 58/1 I Torres ( 22 – 0 – 1 – 1 – 0% )In post 8 we have Point Counterpoint trained by tsunami10. The 6 year old mare out of Point Given x Alzao x Unbridled is heading out at 58/1 and is the 4th tsunami entry. Last time out she ran in the Grade 1 Arkansas Turf Classic and was totally out matched. Her connections bring her in this spot again and like the previous 3 entries has no shot to win this race. Good news is another 10 Breeding points for 2nd to last.
PP 9
STEAL THE CAT(KY) 6/1 A Darling ( 300 – 51 – 49 – 39 – 17% )In post 9 we have Steal the Cat son of Belong To Me x Tactical Cat x Ogygian is trained by ck2stable. Steal the Cat had posted 6 straight triple digit speed figures coming into his last race where he ended up being a far back 11th in the grade 3 Amerika Stakes. A very solid Allowance runner who is struggling to get into a groove at the Graded Stakes level. This might be a tough spot to get all cylinders firing but will be a good test to see what he has in the tank. Top 3 is possible.
PP 10 CELEBRITY SWAIN(IRE)
9/2 R Bullock ( 52 – 6 – 1 – 3 – 12% )Post 10 we find Celebrity Swain trained by boldrule99. The 5 year old son of Swain (IRE) x Peintre Celebre (IRE) x Affirmed is the co-favorite at 9/2. He has multiple Graded Stakes efforts but only 1 win coming in the Mean Joe Green Classic. Celebrity Swain has posted triple digit Speed Figures in his last 4 races. So far he looks to be faster at age 5 then he was at age 4. He has the pedigree to stick with this field and his speed numbers should have him in contention for his first Grade 1 Win. Top 3 finish
PP 11
EIGHT STRAIGHT(KY) 9/1 F Gossett ( 358 – 91 – 69 – 42 – 25% )In post position 11 we have Eight Straight going out for catahoula. The 4 year old son of Smarty Jones x Pulpit x Danzig is making his 5th start of the year in this Grade 1 event. He had 1 other start in a graded event this year which was the Grade 2 DelPenn Fifth Third Elkhorn Stakes where he finished a far back 5th. He looks to be maturing alot this year and the 109 Speed Figure in his last race was his career best. Eight Straight’s connection got a good jock aboard in F Gossett who should get all he can outta him. Could be a class issue here not sure how he will handle his First Grade 1 try but certainly has a shot other alot of others in here.
PP 12 JOYOFWILD(KY)
13/1 D Hogin ( 305 – 65 – 55 – 47 – 21% )Post 12 is Joyofwild the 4 year old colt trained by turfsurf at 13/1. He is the son of Forest Wildcat x Joyeux Danseur x Rahy. He sports a turf record of 20 starts with 5 wins 2 places and 5 shows with $153,878 career earnings. He lacks Graded Race experience only making his 2nd start in one. Being able to run with in this class could be an issue but he has room to improve. He has posted 4 triple digit Speed Figures in his lifetime and will need to come up with a career effort to win this. Jockey D Hogin gives him a good shot at doing so.
PP 13 THE NOB BOT(IRE)
99/1 J Mannion ( 45 – 2 – 1 – 3 – 4% )The 13 horse is The Nob Bot trained by tsunami10. This is the last of the entries of tsunami stables and is by far the worst of them all. The 8 year old mare by Theatrical (IRE) x Sharpen Up (GB) x Ribot has 70 career starts and is about ready for greener pastures. Hasn’t run a stakes race since Christ left Chicago and even longer since she posted a Speed Figure higher then 90. Horrible jockey aboard to boot. Has a good chance to win the New Yorker if she gets a good jump from the gate in this race…
PP 14
BLACK WEST(KY) 9/2 A Rolling ( 389 – 110 – 75 – 50 – 28% )Last but certainly not least is the number 14 Black West trained by freek. The good looking son of Gone West x Black Minnaloushe x Ela-Mana-Mou(IRE) is the most steadily improving horse in the field. Going back to April of last year he has never decreased in speed anytime he has run. He has posted back to back 110 Speed Figures and is coming of a win in the Grade 2 Hallelujah Turf Cup. He has the best win % jockey aboard in A Rolling and has a tremendous closing kick. Lack of Grade Experience is only knock. Lots to love here. Comes under the wire in first.
Final Thoughts:
So there you have our field of 14, some deserving to be here other not so much. Should be a good stretch battle none the less with Black West nudging out the victory from Severe Warning and Gold Doors with Celebrity Swain and Steal The Cat not far behind. Good luck to the owners and may your horse be with you…..