Grade III – Lil’ Drummer Boy Handicap

Lil’ Drummer Boy Handicap
Grade III
A mile and one sixteenth
Firm Turf
$125,000
Fillies and mares, 3 years old and up

With so many graded races occurring this week its no surprise that only nine mares and fillies have turned up for Longchamps big feature race this week over the classic distance of 8.5 furlongs.  With short priced joint favourites we are however guaranteed an exciting race.  The runners are:

CULINARY CUTIE(IRE)

Trainer: buzz

(El Prado(IRE) x Gone West x Seattle Slew)

Odds:  5/2                   Earnings: 2,394,025               Runs/Wins: 20/8

A 4yo filly from Gipper Stables based on a B class horse (West Of Slew).  The first of the joint favourites, and ranked number one in this class. she has won a very impressive amount of cash with wins in the G2-Celine Stakes, G2-Lillspelis Cup, G1-Del Webb Oaks and G1-Breeders Bowl Mile as a 3yo, but has struggled to maintain that form so far this year.  Having said that she has still been in pretty good form so expect her to rise to the occasion – after all, it is only a grade III.

JUMRON’S MEMORY(GB)

Trainer: bigblueone

(Jumron(GB) x Northern Dancer x Mr. Prospector)

Odds:  9/1                   Earnings: 135,244                  Runs/Wins: 14/6

A 5yo scratch bred mare from Kaif Stables.  Very lightly raced for her age as she didn’t get her first run till she was a 4yo but she is trying hard to make up for lost time.  Only one stakes win to show for her efforts so far and in all honesty she looks a little outgunned here at this level so I would expect her to drop back in class after this race.

TISSY STAR(IRE)

Trainer: tizgood

(Sadler’s Wells x Spinning World x Caerleon)

Odds:  16/1                 Earnings: 79,372                    Runs/Wins: 14/2

A 4yo filly from Pierchinski Stables bred from a D class mare and bred by gattaca.  A filly who has only managed to notch up two wins so far and who looks to be totally out of her league in this company.  Could reel in a few of the others in the closing run in but it’s hard to see her hitting the board.

SEMI CHARMED PYE(IRE)

Trainer: lordpye4

(Theatrical(IRE) x Rahy x Cozzene)

Odds:  20/1                 Earnings: 323,025                  Runs/Wins: 27/8

A 5yo scratch bred mare from The Big Oil Conglomerate [Ft. LordPye].  Despite winning the G3-Eloquent Lady Handicap earlier this year she is the rank outsider of this field.  Apart from her first two runs all of her races have been over 10 furlongs or more and this drop back in distance is either madness or a touch of genius – only time will tell.

WISHING WELL G(IRE)

Trainer: zz

(Sadler’s Wells x Lure x Sharpen Up(GB))

Odds:  6/1                   Earnings: 557,950                  Runs/Wins: 27/11

A 4yo filly from Pgpg Stables bred from a G class mare.  A hard races filly who won G2-Bluto Cup as a 3yo but struggled to maintain consistency at this level.  She has had a fairly successful career so far this year at lower levels so her trainer obviously feels that the time is ripe for her to move up again, but she has been unfortunate to run into some very well regarded mares here.

WASSIE’S STAR G

Trainer: wassie

(Sadler’s Wells x A.P. Indy x Mr. Prospector)

Odds:  5/2                   Earnings: 826,136                  Runs/Wins: 27/12

A 5yo mare from Pgpg Stables based on a C class horse (Wassie’s Rainbow G).  The other joint favourite won G1-Queen Ascot Stakes last year and the G3-Sure Will Handicap earlier this month so she is in great form just now.  An extremely late finisher we can expect her to be at the back of the field for most of the race before relying on her incredible burst of speed to carry her to the line – hopefully passing the rest of the field on the way.  Ranked #10 at this distance she will expect to have a big race and maybe move up those rankings a little. 

BLEEP ELA DUBAI

Trainer: xpletives3

(Dubai Destination x Ela-Mana-Mou(IRE) x Round Table)

Odds:  4/1                   Earnings: 258,720                  Runs/Wins: 22/10

A 5yo scratch bred mare from Xpelives3 Stables.  A nice mare who had her first graded outing last time and possibly choked, spoiling a six race winning streak, and couldn’t find her usual fast finish.  Hopes are that she will have recovered from that disappointment and if so could be a very real danger to some of the others here, though the favourites may just have a bit too much class for her. 

SEMI SPECTACULAR(IRE)

Trainer: steelewolf

(Barathea(IRE) x Spectacular Bid x Stage Door Johnny)

Odds:  14/1                 Earnings: 316,340                  Runs/Wins: 33/8

A 5yo scratch bred mare from Jrogue Stables.  Despite failing to manage an allowance win for a long time, her owner has taken this shot in graded company on the back of a reasonable run last time.  Worth a shot I guess but she could find herself in real trouble here.

POINT OUT(IRE)

Trainer: tcrowell

(Singspiel(IRE) x Be My Guest x Green Dancer)

Odds:  9/1                   Earnings: 490,210                  Runs/Wins: 42/9

A 6yo scratch bred mare from Tcrowell Stables.  The most experienced runner here, she’s never really looked comfortable at this level of racing and 2008 looks to be like her final season.  A drop down to allowances could freshen her up a little, and maybe there will be a soft stakes race or two later on, but she has certainly started on that downward spiral.   

Summary

This one looks to me to be between the joint favourites and on this occasion Wassies Star G may just have the upper hand.