Snake Eyes
Well, when I saw that the Snake Eyes Stakes was available for review, I jumped at it. Last week I started a competition between myself and the randomness of a simple dice roll in picking the winner of each race. What better race to roll the dice than one named Snake Eyes.
The race will be run on a yielding wet turf surface, which may have an effect on the outcome. The race is open to all 3-year old horses going a sprint distance of 6 furlongs. A purse of a quarter million is up for grabs in this Grade II event. This is how I see them:
1. Alkaholik 11-1
Alkaholik loves the sprint races. He has won 7 of 14 sprints, finishing on the board in 13 of these starts. He generally runs close to the front but is moving up to the graded stakes here. He generally has been placed into small fields of 7 or less entrants and has yet to beat a field with more entrants.
2. Materialistic 10-1
Materialistic is also moving up to the graded level. He has been lightly raced thus far, but does show a liking for sprints with a record of 4-2-2-0. He has put in speeds in the mid to upper 90 range which will be the minimum speed needed to take this. He has won on an off track, so the weather should not present a problem. If he’s ready, he maybe a looming upset possibility.
3. Uptown Clown 10-1
Uptown Clown is also climbing up to the graded level. He has raced well in sprints, hitting the board in all 5 starts with three trips to the winners circle. He is untested on the off-track and he hasn’t run a speed over 95 and may find things tougher going against this group.
4. Scientific Proof 9-1
Scientific is coming off a career mark of 98 he established last time out going 6f. He’s happy to run in the middle of the pack before making his move. He does have experience against graded company running 4 races, but has not hit the board in any of those races. Will this be his first time? Another question, does he like a wet track?
5. Mr. Universe 23-1
Most likely, we will see Mr. Universe making a bid for the early lead in the race. He’s taking a drop in distance from 8f where he’s been racing lately back to the sprint distance. He has done well in sprints hitting the board in 6 of 8 starts. He does have a win on the off-track, but against a field of 4. He scored a career best speed of 90 in his last and will be challenged to vastly improve upon that in this race.
6. Abe Froman 9-1
Abe Froman has an impressive career record of 9-5-3-1 and a sprint record of 6-4-2-0. He likes to run near the leaders and is coming off a career record speed of 102 set in his last race, going 7f. Jockey Givens (25% win) is taking the mount and will only enhance this colts chances. Only question here is the lack of off-track race history.
7. Scriptorium 13-1
Another one coming off a career race, which he set in a grade-3 event going 7f, closing well to capture second in a speed of 98. He is best positioned in sprint races and usually closes from the back side of the field. He will need to duplicate his last race to achieve the bed of roses in this one.
8. Goldfriars 3-1
Goldfirars is a classy horse who has won 8 of 16 starts. His last four races were all rated at speeds over 95, breaking the 100-level twice. He is returning to the sprint distance for the first time since last July. This should not be a problem for him, as he has won 3 of 4 sprint races. Goldfriars has two different racing styles, he will either run near the front end, or in the middle of the pack. Either style used can mean danger to his foe.
9. Belong to Who 8-1
A very intersting 3-year old here. He has run on both dirt and turf with excellent results. He moves back to the turf for first time since January. He is undefeated in his 5 career starts on the turf, all at sprint distances. He picks up jockey Rolling (29% win). Additionally, his first two career races were over this track, which he won both. There are two considerations to factor in. First, he’s never run on an off-track. Second, his best speed on the turf is 92.
10. Gratest 5-1
Gratest is an interesting entry here. He is coming off a disappointing 14th place finish in his last race. But, when you consider that this was run against a field of 20 in what many consider the most prestigious race of all simster races, the Bluegrass Stakes, you know you have a horse with some quality. He is a hard late charger who has a win on this track already.
There are a couple of interesting things going on here. First, Gratest is being dropped down to a sprint for the first time since last summer. He has hit the board in 5 of 6 starts. He has only one start on the turf that he won, going 8.5f in a speed of 98. He has never raced on an off-track surface. Despite one start on the turf, I am considering him a factor to respect.
11. Road Not Taken 6-1
Road Not Taken has been racing strong lately. He has been first or second in each of his last three, knocking off speeds ranging from 97 to 101. On the turf, he’s been on the board 6 of 7 starts. In sprints, he’s hit 9 of 10 races. Very consistant horse, however has one graded race on dirt finishing way back. Turf is his forte, but who knows about the track surface?
12. Trebre Red 25-1
Trebre made his debut in stakes racing in his last outing trying out 8f against grade III. He likes racing on the lead, and should be out there early on. In his last, he ran second early on before dropping back and finishing 6th. Despite that, he did set a career mark of 90. Trebre drops back to the sprint where he has his two career victories. He is overmatched against this group.
13. Too Much Zip 48-1
Too Much Zip has just made a switch to the turf surface where he has improved. His two turf outings have far surpassed the speeds he rated on the dirt. He has a win and a third on the turf, albeit against low level claimers and low allowance level. He’s simply outclassed in this field.
Gratest is coming off a grueling race with the top simster horses on the internet. He’ll be facing an easier task here than he has seen in a little while and should be able to take this one. My second choice is to Goldfriars who has been chalking up great speeds lately and is returning to sprint racing. Despite his short history of sprint races, he is ranked 28th amongst the turf sprinters. Third selection is to Abe Froman who is coming off a very impressive victory in a speed of 102 and if he comes any where close to that, he will be trouble.
Now, lets see what the random roll of the dice comes up with:
11-Road Not Taken
6-Abe Froman
10-Gratest
Results To Date: My Top pick 0-1, Dice Top Pick 0-1.
My Top Pick ITM 1-1, Dice Top Pick ITM 0-1.