Field considers mutiny in a muddy Captain Hook renewal
New York has drawn a nice field of good 3yo dirt routers for the tenth running of the G2 Captain Hook Stakes. This is the first time the $200k race has been run on a sloppy track, which turns out to be great for some entrants and not so wonderful for others. The record time for the event was set by Extortionist in 2004; he was clocked in 1:47.1 for 9f.
The 9-2 favorite is Fu Ming, a strapping son of Fusaichi Pegasus. Learfan55 (aka Dundey) has trained the colt to a four-race win streak, including the G3 Barbara Walters Special last out. The colt is a perfect 2 for 2 at a mile but has yet to run longer. With that lovely 108 he earned in the Walters, however, he has to be considered a serious threat despite stretching out and running just his second graded race ever here. As if his speed was not enough, Fu Ming likes to run in the rain. He’s got a win and a pair of places on wet tracks. Dangerous horse.
Don’t often see Foxon’s horses running in this division of grades, but he’s brought an excellent one in Change Of Scenery. He pulled off a great win in the G3 Bluegrass Derby Trial with a 107SP. Add that to the 104 he earned in the G3 Transylvania the race before for a fourth place, and the Diamond Green colt has clearly earned his way to this race. Never tested on an off track, but he’s still well-accomplished on fast and so far there is no reason to doubt he’ll handle the mud. The Foxon4 stable has a live runner in this 6-1 colt.
Unostable (aka Snyder) has the 7-1 entry Storm Duck. Also riding a four-race win streak, the Rahy colt just won his first stake last out and jumps all the way up to G2 company today. Normally a big leap, but Storm Duck has been winning easy enough to make this a no-brainer entry. Have to like a horse stringing together three straight 100 SPs. He too is untested on off, but again, no reason yet to think he’ll have a problem with the track condition.
Lucky’s Carpet took a couple of shots at a Bluegrass Derby entry via lock preps, but couldn’t quite make it despite a huge second in the G2 All Saints. The Kingmambo colt, owed by the Naracing2 stable (aka Mr Lucky) starts at 9-1. Carpet’s last win was way back in October in an 85f listed stake. Since then he was third in the G1 Arizona Diamond at 9f and of course did well in the All Saints. He had a horrible outing in the Florida derby, but the colt has two major advantages. First, lots of rest – he’s been off since the end of March. Second, he’s a proven performer on a wet track. The Arizona Diamond was run on a good surface, and he ran a then-excellent 93 and stuck it out for third. not in top form now, but could well sneak in for a piece of the pie.
Stoners has a very nice entry in his 9-1 CatCreeper. Running for the Champions4 stable, the Tale Of The Cat coltpopped a huge 108 two back in an 8.5f listed stake. He immediately went for aderby lock prep as most sane trainers would, but alas the colt faced too-toughcompetition in the Corkscrew. May horses do much better their second shot atgraded company, and he’ll face an easier crowd here anyway. Perfect record ona good track, albeit a 7f allowance last December. Crafty trainer knows how toplace his 3yos for maximum success, keep an eye on this colt.
At 10-1 is Tough Guy, running for the Zbayou stable owned by Lsumark. The Macho Uno colt just earned a 102 in placing second in the G2 Texas Derby last month. He’ll be stepping up in distance, but with higher SPs the longer he’s been allowed to run I suspect he’ll handle that just fine. The track condition, however, does not bode well. he’s run fourth on a good track once, slowing down and posting a lower than normal SP.
It’s not a graded event without a Super entry. Super7 enters the 12-1 Good Bad Ugly. The Unbridled’s Song colt has been particularly effective at a mile, wining a pair of stakes and running third in another. Anything longer and the colt just hasn’t performed all that well. Granted, he was fourth in the G2 All Saints at 8.5f with a 101, but he was clearly tiring in the stretch and ran well below par in a G1 at 9.5 and a DelPenn stake at 10f. Shortening up will help, but is it short enough? Further, he struggled on a good track in the Arizona Diamond. Would love to see what he does when dropped back to a mile on a fast track.
The Lurch stable (owned by Ace) enters the 13-1 Zaraki as a confirmed mudlover. Zaraki won an Ireland stake at a mile on a good track in December, then last out took third in the G2 Arkansas Derby at 9 on a good track with a nice 96SP. He also took an 8.5f listed stake in February with a 103. What I like about this colt is his enjoyment of a little rain and his ability to change running styles when needed. He prefers to be on the lead, but can also threaten from off the pace.
Also at 13-1 is Flying Bryan, trained by Ascot (aka Euroalien). The Royal Academy colt went from wining a mile allowance to winning the G2 Federico at 9f with no problems. He looks like he might even want a bit more ground, but classwise clearly belongs here. On an off track he does have a perfect record. With a top SP of 100 Bryan’s a tad slower than his peers but it’s clear he has significant room for improvement. One to watch.
The final 13-1 entrant is Shamalangadingdong, entered by Stormcat55 (aka Foxon). Not nearly as talented as his co-entry Change of Scenery, Shama nevertheless earned entry via a solid second in the Federico last out. His loss by a mere nose To Flying Bryan had to hurt. For racefans a rematch sure will not be an unhappy occurrence. He is gradually improving SPs with each race, and appears to have more to show as he is offered new challenges. Untested on a wet track, so we’ll see how how Shama handles that. Would like to see him add a bit more distance eventually.
Suited Ak was an early horse on the Bluegrass Derby trail but a pair of 11th place finishes in killed that dream for owner Chilichili (aka Chilimac). The colt actually did have the stakes points for entry, but after a mere third in the Federico, bypassing the big dance made some sense. So, the David Junior colt comes into this one decently rested and potentially on an upswing. Was second by a nose in the G1 Arizona Diamond last year, so has proven he can handle some mud in his face, and although inconsistent he’s more than capable of running a big race for a win at 14-1 odds.
The Tyedye stable (owned by Big Oil – aka LordPye) enters the 15-1 OfA Revolution. He is undefeated in three starts on an off dirt track,and even stakes-placed on a good turf track. This is a perfect place, then, torun the Rock Hard Ten colt for his 15th start. Revolution is a stakes winnerat 8.5, but in his lone 9f start pretty much stayed home, losing by over 10.If his love for mud overcomes his disdain for distance, he could pull off a shocker.High SP of 99 puts him within reach of the best of this field.
Also at 15-1 is Otto’s Perfect Haack. The quiet American colt has an enviable 8:6-1-0 record, his only blemish an unusual sixth in the G1 California Derby last out. Haack likes to run up on the lead, or as close to it as he can manage, but he’s got the speed to make that work most races. Despite the Cal Derby loss, I suspect he can handle the 9f distance, but mud is another question he till has to answer. Top SP of 98 is good, and backed up by a decent 96 as second-best effort.
The final entrant is the 22-1 City Fortress. Crawford runs the City Zip colt from the Fevolution stable. Was fourth in the G2 Texas Derby last out at 8.5 after gradually moving up down the stretch. Fortress is the only runner to have semi-succesfully (he was second in a listed stake) negotiated 9.5f, indicating distance is not a big deal for the colt. odds would be a lot better were it not for an uncharacteristic 66SP in a 9f stake in March, so don’t write the Fortress off just yet. Untried on off dirt so have a hard time giving him super support.
Have to really like the favored Fu Ming for his combination of fast speeds and mud ability, but taking a chance on Zaraki or Flying Bryan also makes sense. If you’re looking for some value, take a close look at Of A Revolution; you rarely get such long odds on a horse that has repeatedly shown he likes mud.