Beerkeg Dominates Entries in BB Filly Juvy Turf but Will He Take the Race

Late breaking news, the $750,000 Breeders’ Bowl Filly Juvy Turf (G1) will be run under a new name this year, with the eight furlong test renamed the Drunken Jockeys Club Filly Juvy Turf Championship as horses from that residency represent eight of the 14 entrants, with owner/trainer Beerkeg responsible for fully half of the field.

The Beerkeg stable groups seven entrants — all but one scratchbreds — are led by April Olsen, a product of Medgalia d’Oro, with Seattle Slew and Curlin completing the pedigree. The two-time grade one winner has seven victories from eight starts and is a perfect seven-for-seven on turf since an early January debut on the main track. A fine sprinter, April Olsen has improved with her two tilts at a flat mile, winning both the Wet Bikini Stakes (G1) and Filly Grand Prix (G1), the latter by nearly two lengths and saw her earn a speed figure of 99. Slightly favored at 6/1, April Olsen will be ridden by R. Hansen from post position five.

We’ll get back to some more of Beerkeg’s entrants in a moment but will just talk about the other grade one winner entered here first, Richardobe’s (Ace) IDK Just a Myth. IDK Just a Myth earned her grade one win two starts back in the seven-furlong More Glare Stakes in which she defeated fellow Filly Juvy Turf entrant Bkr Don Six (third place). The daughter of Lope de Vega earned a speed figure of 90 that day then closed well last time out to finish second to April Olsen in the Filly Grand Prix (96 speed figure). She doesn’t need much of an improved run on Friday to overcome her Grand Prix rival, though that one may improve as well. IDK Just a Myth is the first graded stakes winner produced by the Danehill Dancer mare Noir Myth. Granddam Mythology (by Kris S.) produced Beleqwaya, a late juvenile season grade one sprint winner. IDK Just a Myth (8/1) and jockey J. Kirby will have to work out a trip from post 14.

So Beerkeg’s six other entrants here besides the favorite range in odds from the 8/1 of Taylor Blake (post position 4, jockey C. Mecklenburg) to the 17/1 of Rachel Rivers (#2, T. O’Conner. Taylor Blake enters here following the second two-race winning streak of her career, having won September’s the Animale Stakes (G3) and a listed sprint stakes. That Animale win marked her first try routing and her first go over an off track. The daughter of Dubawi passed both tests in her 3/4-length win, earning her top career speed figure of 94. Maybe she moves up with the return to a firm track, which would give her a shot here.

As her morning line odds suggest, Rachel Rivers is less of a likely winner. The daughter of War Front (out of a No Nay Never mare) has yet to win at a mile or equal or top a speed figure of 90. Her top figure of 86 came when a hard-closing third in the Wet Bikini Stakes (G1), but her closing run was more muted last time out when 10th in the Spring Hill Stakes (G2). Before stretching out to a mile for those two starts, Rachel Rivers won a listed stakes race at six furlongs by 1 1/4 lengths.

Pausing on the Beerkeg parade for a moment … Through three starts, Given’s I Love Rick James is every bit as invincible as her sire’s name suggests. The daughter of I Am Invincible won’t find the eight furlongs too long either, having won the nine-furlong Miss Brillo (G3) last time out, with the winning speed figure of 93 suggesting a solid shot at a successful run on Friday. That race followed a 1 3/4-length allowance win and a two-length score in a seven-furlong maiden heat. Her Kitten’s Joy dam Koko’s Kitten won the Breeders’ Bowl F and M Turf (G1) as a 4-year-old as well as the Los Angeles Turf Cup (G1). Starting just inside IDK Just a Myth with O.A. Haack in the irons, I Love Rick James is the co-second choice at 7/1, but is an even mile too sharp a trip for her?

The other 7/1 shot is Beerkeg’s Domna Svistok who will be departing from post 12, just inside of I Love Rick James. A winner of four straight races as winter turned to spring, the bay Medaglia d’Oro filly has edged up her speed figures in a pair of summertime races at a mile while failing to notch a win. She came tantalizingly close in the Wet Bikini, leading all the way before being pipped at the wire by April Olsen. She followed April Olsen to the Filly Grand Prix, finishing fourth that day while earning her top speed figure of 91. Given the outside post and her natural speed, Doman Svistok should be a pace presence under jockey J. Hornibrook.

Starting from the nine hole at 9/1 odds and making her ninth start is Beerkeg’s Sofi Ryan, who perked up when stretched out in September’s Here We Go Lambo Stakes. She drew off to win by 2 1/2-lengths in that mile test and earned a speed figure of 92. The daughter of I Am Invincible likes to sit close to the early pace before getting first run on the closers and she also has a nose for the winner’s circle. Indeed, Sofi Ryan has won five of her eight career starts and she’s never finished worse than third, a record that should get a stern test in this field.

If A Plodder Falls in the Forest …

At this point in the narrative, I would like to conduct a theoretical discourse on the impact any one runner in a field has on the outcome of a race, either simulated or in real life. (Please add your thoughts to the comments.) If a tree falls in the woods does anyone hear it? Likewise, if a one-run plodder fails to fire and dawdles in the rear of the field, maybe to “pass tiring rivals,” would the money spots have gone to the same horses in the same order had that horse not entered? Now a no-hoper who runs within the more forwardly placed pack could change outcomes without raising a hoof in anger merely by providing traffic for possible place horses. (Do you ever wonder if when your Sim horse inexplicably fails to fire, if it possibly got held up in traffic the viewer doesn’t even try to show us?) Does a rabbit with no hope to win change how the athletes — either human, equine, or binary — run their races? Then there is a horse like the aforementioned Sofi Ryan who should be up in a challenging spot and can’t be dismissed as having no chance to win. Taking her out of the field, or a similar horse out of a similar real horse race, might certainly change the resulting outcome. And Beerkeg has seven of the 14 horses entered here.

The field’s two 10/1 shots are Beerkeg’s Tiffany Watson from the rail and fellow Drunken Jockeys Club residence member Cocobella1’s Bkr Don Six (post 11, jockey W. Johns). Tiffany Watson is a Frankel filly (Danehill and Sadler’s Wells on the bottom side), who is undefeated from two route races and has never finished worse than second on grass, including a narrow victory in the late September Natalie Stakes (G3). A bit of a late starter for the Beerkeg program, Tiffany Watson first raced in March, and earned her first victory in May, while adding an additional allowance win in August. Her top speed figure of 93 stamps her as a contender here. P. Campbell has the riding assignment.

On the opposite end from a breeding cost perspective from Tiffany Watson is New Jersey-bred Bkr Don Six. This race-toughened daughter of Don Six will be making her 14th start Friday and has already won seven races, most recently taking the seven-furlong Young Lady Stakes (G2) in late July. She matched the 86 speed figure from that win in her subsequent start, a third-place finish in the More Glare Stakes before regressing slightly in the Chevel last time out. Friday’s race will be her first start around two turns and she’ll need a big move forward to get the job done Friday.

Atthewire’s Renberg is 12/1 on the morning line and enters here following a one-length win in the Dormello (G3) in early October, earning a career best speed figure of 88. First or second in five of six starts, Renberg’s lone poor showing came just before the Dormello when he ran seventh in an eight-horse Prestige Stakes (G3) field. The daughter of Lonhro has notched victories in a listed stakes race and a pair of allowance heats. Renberg is the first graded stakes winner from nine horses produced from Tote End. With his mare being by Dubawi, Renberg displays a Lonhro/Mr. Prospector-line breeding pattern that I rather like. The foundation (he)mare of this family is Hall of Famer Bristol Rovers, a $7-million earner and nine-time grade one winner of races like the 2005 Ark De Triumph and the Japan Classic. Bristol Rovers won three straight grade one races before being distanced in the 2004 Breeders’ Bowl Turf (G1) and finished fifth in the 2005 renewal of that race.

Little Tina has no such simulated regality about her female family as she is another one of Beerkeg’s scratch-bred fillies. That’s not to knock her pedigree which consists of Into Mischief over Danzig and Tapit. Little Tina has won her last two races an n3l allowance and the JPMC Jessamine (G3), in which she earned an 89 speed figure while beating six rivals. In that race, Little Tina dashed to the front, building a nearly eight-length lead before winning by 1 3/4 lengths. She and jockey S. Hommell will depart from post position 10.

Another one with designs on the front end is Given’s second entrant here, Inishnee (13/1). This three-time winner really improved upon stretching out to the eight-furlong distance, winning an allowance race before finishing second in the Natalie Stakes (G3). Inishnee is by Earthlight, a Shamardal son, making her closely related to juvenile grade one winner Marmiz (by Shamardal’s Blue Point), with both being out of the Dansili dam, Alice Liddell. A way further back in the female family is Ab Fab, who finished 10th in the 2007 Breeders’ Bowl Sprint (G1). Inishnee will need to improve on her career best speed figure of 92 while dealing with others on the front end if she is to challenge here. R. Sailor has the mount.

Bobcat Goldthwait (post position six, 15/1) hails from the Sirwalter stable in the Lindsypark racing conglomerate. This daughter of Starspangledbanner won the Spring Hill Stakes (G2) in early September which followed a second-place finish in the seven-furlong Young Lady Stakes in July. The stalker will probably be shuffled back a bit more than usual in the early going so jockey F. Gossett, who rode Bobcat Goldthwait to a narrow fourth-place finish (missing the winner’s circle by just three parts of a length) in the Barbara Memorial (G3) in June, will have to work out a trip. She’s another one whose top speed figures are a little light, but right there in the same range where favorite April Olsen was before she popped a big one in her last race.

Alozon’s (Deuce1) Speedway Stables is the highest on the odds board (26/1) for the Breeders’ Bowl Juvy Filly Turf but only seventh in the post position ranking. I would normally give short shrift to a horse who the capper has shaded in that mauve coloring in a stakes race for 2-year-olds at this time of year, but it is a nice color contrast with all the other yellows and we all know how the capper can be sometimes. Just look at Speedway Stables last race, a second-place finish to Bobcat Goldthwait in the Spring Hill, where she just missed the big prize by a 1/4 of a length at odds of 22/1, with Breeders’ Bowl rival Rachel Rivers back in 10th. That Spring Hill performance was her lone race at a mile, not really giving the capper much to go on given her much improved performance that day. That speed figure of 88 puts her in with a group of many others here hoping for a breakout performance Friday that will earn them a trip to the winner’s circle. Speedway Stables is by Cloth of Stars and out of the stakes winning Pounced mare Axo. N. Landers will ride.

The lesson that Renberg’s relative Bristol Rovers’ Breeders’ Bowl flop at odds of 3/1 teaches us (or me anyway) is that very good looking, very well-backed horses can sometimes finish up the track. (Bristol Rovers was the second choice that day behind second-place finisher Allied Assault (2/1) — Sunnybank Memorial won by two lengths at 6/1. Future Hall of Famers Dante and Krishna ran fifth and sixth. Nice field.) So if April Olsen regresses just a bit here there is a whole field of horses sitting in range if they fire. Under that scenario, I’ll be looking for the winner from among Tiffany Watson (#1), Taylor Blake (#4), Renberg (#8), I Love Rick James (#13), and IDK Just a Myth (#14). So my heart is with Renberg but my wallet is going with I Love Rick James and IDK Just a Myth over the other three.