The Hamburg Hall

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Germany (GER) 3:55:00 PM EST Race ID : 3675395
Grade II / Group 2 Purse : $375,000 – Restricted to 3 Year Olds and Older
14 Furlongs | ~2800 Meters | One Mile and Three Quarters

1	MISCHIEVOUS VIEW	7/2
	PRACTICAL JOKE x AMERICAN PHAROAH x GHOSTZAPPER
Jockey: B Wu Trainer: Dahmamas Form: He has never run 14 furlongs, so this summary uses his runs at 12f and 16f, which sit either side of it, and his one start at 13f. Distance record: he has 10 starts at 12f or longer, with 4 wins and a third. He has won at both ends of the range, over 12f (three times) and over 16f (once). That suggests the extra distance shouldn’t trouble him. His one run at 13f was a Grade 2 where he finished 4th. Recent form: he has won 3 of his last 5, and the two latest wins came by 5¾ and 6¼ lengths. His best speed figures are recent (115 and 114). Class: he is much stronger in allowance and stakes company than in graded races. At 12f or longer he has won 3 of 5 allowances, but he is 0 from 3 in Grade 2 races, with finishes of 11th, 4th and 4th. His only graded win was in a Grade 3 at 11f. Running style: he comes from off the pace, and he won the September stakes from 10th at the first two calls. He has also won from close to the pace, so he doesn’t need a particular style to win. Other points: He has only raced on dirt, mostly on fast tracks. He also won on good and was 3rd on sloppy. His 69-day break since the last run shouldn’t be a concern, because he has won first-up after breaks of 89 and 104 days. Jockey S Munoz is 2 from 2 on him, including the last win. Bottom line: he’s a genuine stayer in good form who has done his winning in allowance and stakes company. His weaker runs have come in Grade 2 fields and when he drew wide in big fields. Dingo’s Decision: The small field of 7 and his inside draw are deifintely not going to hurt his chances to break his Grade 2 Hoodoo. This writer is a tad surprised that S Munoz wasn’t offered a free plane ride to Germany especially as he has no other commitments for Race day

2	AWE MINESHAFT	7/1
	MINESHAFT x AWESOME AGAIN x STORM CAT
Jockey: K Damo Trainer: Tenpoint Form: Awe Mineshaft is coming off 4 straight Turf races including a 13f Grade 2 win 2 starts ago, but it has been nearly 12 months since he has attempted a Graded race on the dirt Distance record: at 12f or longer he has 8 starts, with 4 wins, a second, a third, a fourth and a fifth. On dirt over 12f or longer he has never finished worse than 4th. At 14f: he won a turf stakes by 3¾ lengths. His other 14f start was a Grade 2 on fast dirt, 12 months ago, the same class and surface as this race, where he was beaten only ½ a length for third. 14 furlongs does seem to be the upper limit of his distance range though Class: he has won two of his four Grade 2 starts, one on turf and one on dirt, and was 3rd and 4th in the others. The one Grade 1 start was a 5th at 12f. Surface: this is the main question. His best form is on turf, with three wins from four starts, and his rank is #92 for turf long. His last four starts were all on turf, and his last dirt run was in March. His best dirt speed figure is 105, against 106 on turf, so the difference is small. Running style: he races on or just off the pace, and the last time he led from the start over a long distance he was run down late. That happened at 14f on dirt, where he led at every call and was beaten for the win by ½ a length. He has won when held in second or third and moved up late, so a tidy trip just off the pace suits him best. Other points: This run comes 42 days after his last start, in line with his usual 5–8 week gaps. G Giant won the Shagfarms Stayer on him and is 2 from 2 on him, but unfortunately he retired some time back Bottom line: he’s a proven Grade 2 stayer at this exact distance who has run well on dirt, so he is a genuine contender. The risks are a quick pace scenario as he’s drawn to lead, and the switch back from turf. Dingo’s Decision: Although his trainer seems a little confused on what surface works best for his steed Awe Mineshaft seems to just show up and run his normal honest race. In fact the only races he has failed to bring home a cheque of some amount were his 2 starts on off tracks, so not an issue today

3	daniol	11/1
	VIOLENCE x CAMELOT (GB) x DEEP IMPACT
Jockey: M Arky Trainer: Acarigua Form: Daniol was last year’s winner of this race winning by 5½ lengths at 10/1, running a a career best 107 SP. Distance record: he has 6 starts at 14f, all on fast dirt, with 2 wins, a third, a fourth, a 10th and an 11th. 14f is clearly his best trip. His speed figures at 14f average about 102 and peak at 107. Over 16f he is 1 from 8, with a 5th, 7th and 8th in his last three runs there and figures between 90 and 99. His last two starts have been over 16f, so dropping back to 14f should help him. Class: Grade 2 is his level. He has won one of four Grade 2 starts and was second (by 11 lengths) in another. In Grade 1 (0 from 4, best 4th) and Grade 3 company (0 from 5, best 3rd) he has struggled. Recent form: is poor, with 5th, 7th, 8th, 4th and a win in an allowance for his last five. His only win in his last 12 starts was the April allowance. His last start was a 5th in a Grade 3 over 16f with a 98 figure. He did something similar last year, coming off an 11th before winning this race. Running style: he usually sits mid-field or further back and finishes late. In last year’s win he was 7th, 5th and 4th at the calls before running on. The April allowance win, when he led all the way, was an exception rather than the rule and more a testament to the lack of any real opposition that day Turnaround: this is the main worry. The race is only 14 days after his last start, the quickest turnaround on his record, where his shortest gap before was 28 days. Other points: Ji Walsh rode the Hamburg Hall win last year and although only based a few miles away in Belgium wasn’t offered the ride. M Hibby has ridden him four times, finishing 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 5th. and the whisper is he declined the ride choosing to stay home in Kentucky this weekend Bottom line: he’s a past winner of this race, at his best distance and class, but he’s out of form and quick back from a 16f run. He has won this at long odds before, though recent runs make him a risky choice. Dingo’s Decision: After winning this race last year at similar odds and beating a full field He has only 6 others to beat this time. Even on the short backup a forward showing would not surprise even though he is the outsider of the field

4	SMOKE ALERT	7/1
	BAAEED x SIYOUNI x ENCOSTA DE LAGO (AUS)
Jockey: A Favour Trainer: Woette1 Form: Smoke Alert has never run 14 furlongs, and the Hamburg Hall would be a big step up in both distance and class. His longest start is 12½f, and he has never run in a Grade 1 or Grade 2. So let’s look a little deeper into what a very astute trainer sees in his horse Distance record: at 12f or longer he has 4 starts, all last year as a 3-year-old, with 1 win, a second, a third and a fourth. He hasn’t run beyond 11f since being gelded. Speed: at 12f or longer his figures sit between 101 and 103. His career best is 110, set over 10f in an allowance win in March, and 109 over 9.5f on turf. Those are good numbers, but they came at shorter distances. Recent form: since March he has been 4th, 7th, 4th, 5th and 8th, never getting closer than 3¼ lengths. His last win was the 10f allowance on 14 March, and he has been a gelding since the turn of the year. His last start was an 8th in a 10f stakes, beaten 7¼ lengths. Class: a Grade 3 win in the 12f Derby de Swedish is his best result. Since then he is 0 from 2 in Grade 3 company, and his stakes results at 9.5f or 10f have been 4th, 7th and 8th. Grade 2 is a clear step above that. Running style: he races close to the pace, and he led all the way in the Grade 3 win. But he has never had to sustain that over 14f, and he has been well back early in his last two stakes starts. Other points: He only runs on fast or firm tracks, so conditions won’t bother him. He has won 4 of 13 on dirt. Six weeks since his last start is a normal gap for him. His best rank is #3,497, far below the other horses in this race. Yet he holds a price of 7/1 does someone know something not obvious to the run of the mill punter? Bottom line: he’s a hard horse to support here. He’s a lightly raced, speedy middle-distance horse who now faces a Grade 2 over a distance he hasn’t tried, with no win since March. He needs an easy lead and a lot of improvement. Dingo’s Decision: There is a solid rumour doing the rounds that this horse was named while a certain Belgian Trainer had his mate Fredje over for a smoke and toke night a couple of years back. One has to also wonder why his grandson has never ridden this horse

5	BK’S VINDICTIVE	5/1
	VINDICTIVE x CANDY RIDE x STORM BIRD
Jockey: D Lakencher Trainer: Beerkeg Form: BK’s Vindictive is a strong fit for the Hamburg Hall. He has already run three times at 14f, winning twice and finishing second, with a 109 speed figure each time. All three were on fast dirt, and he has won a Grade 2. Distance record: at 12f or longer he has 8 starts, with 4 wins, 2 seconds, a third and a fifth. They were all on fast dirt except one, and the one that wasn’t was a 13f stakes. Speed: his figures at 12f or longer average about 107, and 109 is his regular level at 14f. His career best is 113, over 11½f. They are very consistent figures and bode well for a forward showing on race day. Class: he won The Big Show, a Grade 2 over 16f, and was second in a Grade 3 at 14f last time. His one poor run at this level was a 5th in a Grade 1 over 16f, where he finished 16½ lengths behind after racing prominently. Running style: he races on or near the lead. At 12f or longer he has been in the first two early in nearly every start, and he led all the way in The Big Show. That is a strength, but he could face a pace contest. Awe Mineshaft also likes to race prominently, and he led every call in his last 14f dirt Grade 2. Other points: 49 days since his last start is in line with his usual 5–8 week gaps. With only one lifetime turf start, his career is based around the dirt where he is a strong performer. His rank of #13 for dirt long is by far the best rating of any of today’s runners He has had a different jockey for most of his starts, so no jockey has built up a record with him. Bottom line: he’s a genuine contender with a proven record at the distance and level. The risks are an early pace battle and a Grade 2 field that may be stronger than the stakes he has been winning. Dingo’s Decision:In this small field of 7 we surprisingly find the best rated horse only 4th in the betting at 5/1 and he could definitely be the value play of the field

6	SECRET STRATEGY	5/2 Eq Fav.
	CURLIN x TAPIT x A.P. INDY
Jockey: M Strahlman Trainer: Oakridge Form: Secret Strategy has never raced beyond 11 furlongs, and 14f would be a big jump. He is a quality 9f to 10f horse whose current figures are strong, but I can find no evidence he stays this far Distance record: he has 4 starts at 10f or longer, and none has been a win. The 11f run was as a maiden three years ago, before he was gelded. His only competitive efforts at 10f were both in the Mecca Classic. Most of his racing, and all five wins, have been at 7f to 9.5f. Speed: his figures are high, with 113, 113 and 111 in his last three. His career best is 116, set at 9f in a Grade 3. These are top-class numbers, but they come over a mile and an eighth, not a mile and three-quarters. Class: he has run in Grade 2 company 9 times, with 1 win (the 2024 Gold War Front Cup at 9f), a third and nothing better. In Grade 3 he is 0 from 3, with a second and two fourths. Class isn’t the main problem here, having worked his way up from a claimer in his early 3 year old season, but the distance is. Recent form: it has improved lately, with a 4th, a 2nd in a Grade 3 and an allowance win by 4 lengths before that. Before the allowance he had a 9th and an 11th in Grade 2 races. Running style: he usually races mid-pack to well back early, often 4th to 6th, sometimes further behind. He finishes best when the pace is strong, which could suit a 14f run if he stays. Other points: 49 days since his last start fits his usual 6–10 week gaps. He has only raced on dirt, and fast tracks suit him. He’s 6 years old. Bottom line: he’s an outsider on distance. His speed and class would make him competitive over 9f or 10f, but he has never shown stamina for anything near 14f, and his one start beyond 10f was poor. Dingo’s Decision: Shows up at today’s races as co 5/2 favourite, but with NO exposed form over the distance a man would have to be a stark raving lunatic to risk his pie money let alone his beer money on him

7	LOKI’S MISCHIEF	5/2 Eq Fav.
	INTO MISCHIEF x A.P. INDY x AWESOME AGAIN
Jockey: Y Rhino Trainer: Francua4 Form: Loki’s Mischief has never raced 14 furlongs. His longest starts are two at 13f, where he finished 3rd in a Grade 2 both times, so he is a competitive horse with a distance and class question. Distance record: at 12f or longer he has 7 starts, with 2 wins, a second, two thirds, a 6th and a 9th. Both wins were at 12f and all were on fast dirt. Speed: his figures at 12f or longer average about 110, and 114 at 13f is his best at the longer trips. His career best is 118, set over 10½f in a stakes win. He sits right with the 113 to 115 level of the top horses in this race. Class: he won a Grade 3 over 12f, but he is 0 from 3 in Grade 2 races, finishing 3rd, 3rd and 6th. In Grade 3 company he is 1 from 5. The stamina question: at 13f, in both Grade 2 races, he was prominent or in front at the last call and finished 3rd, beaten 6¼ lengths in the Grey Fox (after leading at every call) and 4¼ lengths in the Grumpy Old Man Marathon. Another furlong on top of that is the risk here. Running style: he races on or close to the lead, and he led all the way in several of his wins. Awe Mineshaft and BK’s Vindictive also like to race prominently, so he may face pace pressure. Recent form: it’s patchy, with a 9th, 3rd, 1st, 3rd and 2nd. His last start was a poor 9th in a Grade 3, and he hasn’t won since May. Other points: 70 days since his last start is a bit longer than usual, but he has won after a 154-day break. He has only raced on dirt, and fast tracks suit him. Bottom line: he’s a talented 12f to 13f horse with the figures to be competitive, but he has not won a Grade 2 and the extra furlong is unproven. He needs an uncontested lead to have a chance. Dingo’s Decision: Needs a soft lead to be any chance at all and is most unlikely to get it. Also with being highly suspect at 14 furlongs I am betting against the bookmakers on this one as well

Dingo’s Break the Bookies Bets			Fixed Odds
Top Pick	5	Bk’s Vindictive	5/1
Looks the clear winner with both favourites having glaring unanswered gaps in their resumes.
Value Bet	1, 3, 5	Box Exacta and Trifecta	Various
These are definitely the Value Options of the race, if the cash is a tad tight then take the 5 to win and couple with the other 2
Best Roughie	3	Daniol	11/1
He may be the outsider of the field but is well over the odds for last year’s winner of this race.