Colts to battle it out in Spinning A Tale Challenge

The fillies get a rest this week, and the focus shifts to the colts, for the four annual running of the Spinning A Tale Challenge. This race for three year olds runs over seven furlongs of turf for a chance at a piece of the $50000 purse. The rain has stayed well to the west this week, and the turf will be rated as firm for this event. The race has historically been a midpack closers race, with all three past running producing winners from just off the pace. It has also showcased some good, enduring runners, with only one of the previous twenty three entrants dropping to claims, and only three of those failing to win at leas tone stakes race. Last year, Virginia race fans were treated to a thriller, with Frenzy(KY) just holding off the onrushing Sakie(ENG) to grab the victory by a head. This year’s race draws a field of nine, and a lot of mid-level odds should make for some good returns to the bettors here. The favorite steps in at the 5/2 mark, with six other entries coming in between 4/1 and 9/1 odds. The longshot bets are at 10/1 and 14/1 to round out the field. The favorite looks hard to beat on paper, but the rest of the field looks quite close, so this one could be hard to call for the exotics.

PP 1) Delta Defense(ENG) Sired by Pivotal(GB), Trained by canisminor. Delta Defense(ENG) enters his tenth career start here with the longshot billing from the oddsmakers. This will be his second try at stakes level, and his first in open stakes competition. He is seeking his first stakes win. He has run to a 3-2-2-0-1 mark for his career, with a top speed number of 92.1 earned two starts back. His last race was an eight and a half furlong Grade 2 race in Kentucky, where he never found his stride, finishing a long out eleventh in a field of twelve. Most of his starts have been on turf, with his two dirt starts producing his only two finishes outside the top three. He has wins and comparable speeds from six to eight furlongs, and he should be quite comfortable at this distance. He runs as a midpack closer, and throwing out his dirt efforts, his close has been quite consistent. In his seven turf starts, his speeds have improved with every single start, and a continuation of that trend could put him up in the mid nineties here, with a chance to be quite competitive. The big question is how he will react to the overly ambitious placement in his last start, and how muc it took out of him. He might be a good choice to pad your trifecta boxes with his return to his preferred surface.

PP 2) Fastest Plumber(KY) Sired by Jump Start, Trained by wolves. Fastest Plumber(KY) will take his eighteenth career trip in this race. He has one previous stakes win to his credit, coming in September of last year. His seventeen career starts have seen him earn a record of 5-2-5-3-0 with a best speed figure of 98.5 earned in a stakes field three starts back. His last start was an eight and a half furlong open allowance in North Florida, where he finished third in a tight field of four. He has split his career fairly evenly between dirt and turf, displaying a slight speed edge of the grass and the bulk of his earnings there as well. He drops back slightly here in distance, after running his last eight races in routes. His speeds in the mile range have by far been his best, but his last sprint was back in October and he has matured since then. In this distance range, he has two wins and a fourth in three turf tries. He will generally run close to the head of the midpack early, but with one exception, his close hasn’t produced much over his last several starts. His last two victories have both come in gate to wire fashion, where he has faced little to no breakout early speed, where he found himself in fields of closers generating a slower early pace. He’ll see some speed out front in this one, and should be looking at a hill to climb in the second half. I look for him to pretty much hold at whatever position he has at half, not gaining or losing much ground as they head for home.

PP 3) Danish Law(IRE) Sired by Danehill Dancer(IRE), Trained by papaxerxes. Danish Law(IRE) steps to the track for career start number thirteen in this race. He carries a top fifty ranking in the Turf Sprint division, behind four previous stakes wins, the most recent of which came two starts back. Twelve career starts have seen him race to a record of 5-1-2-1-0, running a best speed of 97.5 in his stakes win two starts back. His last start was in Pennsylvaniain a seven furlong open stakes, where he broke out on top early, but faded in the second half to finish sixth in a field of nine. All twelve starts have been on turf, and he’s not given his trainer much reason to try a switch. This has arguably been his best distance range, generating three wins in five starts. He prefers a fast break from the gate, and has shown a need for a clear cut lead and fairly decent cushion at the half to have success. Without an early lead, he hasn’t really shown any get up and go, and he also hasn’t faired well when challenged early. He faces an early challenge here, and that could hurt his chances in the second half here. Look for him to battle hard for that front spot early, but start to fade as the early duel takes its toll crossing into the second half.

PP 4) Astrono Gold(KY) Sired by Seeking The Gold, Trained by perks2. Astrono Gold(KY) sees action for the twelvth time in this race. This will be his first try at stakes level, after marching smartly up through his conditions through the beginning of this season. His eleven prior start have seen him race to a mark of 4-2-2-1-1, fielding a career best speed of 102.8 in his last start. That run was an A3x at seven furlongs in Eastern Kentucky, where he bested a field of nine by a length and a quarter. He ran dirt through out his two year old season, switching to turf in his second start this year, and it paid immediate dividends. He has three wins and a show since the surface switch, with his average speeds steadily increasing. He started the season routing, with decent success, and his only try in this distance range came in his last start, and it proved to be his career best to date. He likes to run from near the head of the midpack and his close has been fairly consistent on both surfaces. After his last big start, he displayed a slight bounce, but still stayed well in contention in that race. He’s definitely earned the step up in class this season, but that could also play a roll here. I’d definitely bix him in the trifecta here, but would like to see his reaction to stakes level before dropping a win bet.

PP 5) Taboo Thunder(KY) Sired by Thunder Gulch, Trained by taboo1. Taboo Thunder(KY) strolls into his tenth career start here, tagged as the race favorite. His six career stakes wins have earned him a divisional ranking of 25 in the Turf Sprint division, and he enters this one off back to back stakes wins. Overall in his first ten, he run to a dominating 8-2-0-0-0 record, cracking the 100 mark twice, capped by a 102.8 in his last start. That race was a seven furlong stakes outing in Pennsylvania, where he handily defeated a field of nine by a length and a half. After starting his career on dirt, posting three wins and his first stakes win, he proved his versatility by shifting to turf, and collecting five more wins in his nest six starts. Though his breeding screams route, he has never routed, and shown himself to be a masterful sprinter. He has two wins in two tries in this distance range, and he stretches half a furlong beyond his previous long here. He likes sitting just off the early pace, and relying on a powerful second half to bring him home. As his record shows, he has been nothing less than stellar in that endeavor. One worriesome trend is that after fielding both of his last two career best speeds, he took a big speed bounce in the following start. While that is troublesome in a field like this, it also needs to be said that he won both of those bounce races by well over a length. He definitely looks to be the horse to beat here, and it is hard to buck the oddsmakers on this card.

PP 6) Gold River Dancer(KY) Sired by Touch Gold, Trained by jumpmoose. Gold River Dancer(KY) takes the gate for the thirteenth time in this race. He has a pair of previous stakes wins, both of which came this season. He has earned a 5-1-1-2-1 record in his first twelve, posting a top speed figure of 101.3 two starts back. His last race was an eight and a half furlong stakes in Mississippi, where he faded after leading the field of eight into the stretch, ending with a sixth place finish. Though having run four dirt starts at intervals, he’s proven to be more comfortable on turf, missing the top three only twice in eight starts. He’s done the bulk of his running in routes, but he is more than capapble in this distance range, putting up two wins and a place in three tries. He’s a rocket from the gate, relying on a blazing early pace to build enough of a cushion to hold off the closers. Though he prefers a clear cut early lead, he can hold his own in a speed duel. The shorter race doesn’t hurt him here, and he has shown that he has plenty of stamina going into the second half. He should be caught in a duel early here, but look for him to shake off the challenge as they cross into the second half. On the down side, his top speed looks to be an anomaly rather than the rule, and if he runs his typical speed here, he won’t be able to hold on in this field.

PP 7) Right On Track(AUS) Sired by Redoute’s Choice(AUS), Trained by lordbear3. Right On Track(AUS) sees action in his tenth career start here. This will be his second try in stakes company, and he is looking for his first win at this level. He’s garnered a 4-1-1-1-0 record in his first nine, putting up a top speed number of 98.7 in his last start. That run was a seven furlong stakes in Pennsylvania, where he finished third behind Taboo Thunder(KY) in a field of nine. After a pair of dismal dirt runs to begin his career, he switched to the grass, landing out of the top three only once in his next seven. Though his top speed figure came in this distance range last outing, the bulk of his success has come in shorter sprints, with all four wins coming between four and a half and six and a half furlongs. He tends to break at a pace that would put him at the head of the midpack, but with the shorter starts, most of the time that has put him right up in the mix early, and he hasn’t displayed much closing power from off the early pace. The combination of the longer race and the early speed here is likely to see him further out at the half than he is used to, and that doesn’t bode well for him here. On the postive side, he has been steadily improving over the course of this season, and could be ready to pop off a big race. In a shorter race, I’d give him a piece of the action here, but at this distance, I’ll have to pass on him this time.

PP 8) Manatee Bad Boy(IRE) Sired by Refuse To Bend(IRE), Trained by brstable. Manatee Bad Boy(IRE) will make career start eleven in this race. A pair of stakes wins last Autumn, including a Grade I victory, bring him into this start with a top fifty divisional ranking. Overall in his first ten, he showcases a 4-3-0-1-0 record, and a top speed figure of 95.7 earned in his last race. That start was a stakes at this distance in Kansas, where he finished a close in fourth in a field of seven in a hotly contested race. All ten career starts have been on turf, and with over 400K in earnings to show for it, there has been no inclination to move him. He’s shown himself capable at anywhere from six to eight furlongs, and in this distance range he sports a win and a place in three attempts. He typically breaks in a fashion that would put him in the midpack, but two of his last three wins have been in shorter races, with a piece of the early action, a typical scenario for juvenile runners. After capturing the victory in last year’s World Cup race, he displayed lackidaisical form at best in the Breeder’s Bowl and at DCPD to round out the season. He seems to be improving and getting back on track in his two starts this season, but in both of those starts, he faced slower early paces, and had the lead early both times. With the exception of his World Cup run last year, that has been the case in all of his successful starts. Early speed will put him off the early pace here, and he will need to ratchet up his speed another notch, and display a better close than he generally does to be a major factor late.

PP 9) Pray For Rain Ryry(KY) Sired by Pulpit, Trained by ryry. Pray For Rain Ryry(KY) looks at career start number twelve in this race. He has three previous stakes victories, the latest of which came back to back late last season. He sports a 4-0-2-0-2 record from his first eleven, coming off a career best speed of 96.2 in his last start. That outing was an eight furlong stakes in North Florida, where he trailed a field of five home by a relatively close in foru and three quarters. Eight of eleven starts have been on turf, and that has proven to be his overwhelming preference. He has run from six to nine furlongs on turf, but both starts in this distance range have resulted in stakes wins for him. He is the deepest closer in this field, but after some stellar runs last year, his close has been virtually nonexistent this season. The shorter distance seems to work to his favor here, having run into trouble in the majority of his route tries. His last start was far and away his best speed to date, another positive for him. He’ll face a fast early pace here, though, and will likely find himself out deep as they move into the second half. He’ll need to show a lot more desire than he has so far this season to be in contention late in this one.