Great Fiddle Sticks

The eighth running of Maine’s Grade III Great Fiddle Sticks Stakes is ready to go this weekend.  There were rumors early in the meet that this stakes may be moved to a different week.  Again, what ought to be a highlight of the racing season for three-year-old fillies, is being ignored by the biggest names in the division, and has attracted a small field of only six runners.

Conventional wisdom says running one week away from the Kentucky Oaks causes most trainers to point their best to that race and not to this week.

If the top names aren’t here, that doesn’t mean the small field is weak.  The fillies that are here are for the most part lightly raced and rapidly improving.  Here’s hoping this year’s field turns out like the first two that ran the Great Fiddle Sticks.  The first two winners each went on to capture three more graded wins in their careers.

PP 1 VHEISSU(KY) (SPEIGHTSTOWN x SAINT BALLADO x ROUND TABLE) bred and trained by astinator8 (Astin’s Place, 24%) Odds: 7/5

The favorite here will take some beating.  She would have made the Oaks field last week had she entered.  With six wins in eight starts and a last time speed figure that is some seven points higher than any other filly here has run, she’s an obvious choice.  But it gets better.  She had a huge jump in performance last time.  That coincided with her first try around two turns.  That was a small listed stakes, but it contained a contender in the Oaks and a lone speed filly.  Vheissu (which is either means asking the name of the German filly to her right in the starting gate or is an anagram for shuives (which is also not a word)) had no trouble running down either.  Top jock McClendon already has two Great Fiddle trophies in his case.  The one trend she’s up against is that no favorite has ever won this race.

PP 2 COILETTE(GER) (MONSUN(GER) x A.P. INDY x SPORTIN’ LIFE) bred and trained by lygerbomb (Rvd Stables, 13%) Odds: 7-1

Monsun’s runners have done a bit better on grass as did this one’s dam, so the barn started this one there for her first three races.  She closed out her two-year-old season with a dirt try on an off track.  She responded like a schoolboy at the bell at the end of the day: she had never moved so fast.  Her four races since turning three have been very strong.  She shows only one call where she did not lead.  Barn has patiently worked her through her conditions and she makes the big step from allowance company to graded stakes.  In her favor she made another jump in performance last time when shortening up a half-furlong to taday’s distance.  Also, she’s the only speed horse in the field.  She gets to set whatever pace she likes.  On the downsides, her best speed figure is a few notches below others in this field.  No Great Fiddle Sticks winner has ever gone wire to wire, even though some early speed fillies have gotten comfortable leads.  It would be more encouraging to see her handled by a higher percentage rider.

PP 3 NEW BOLTON(KY) (DYNAFORMER x CARSON CITY x GREEN DESERT) bred and trained by paddy (Twoofus Stables, 13%) Odds: 13-1

Two past winners went turf to dirt and New Bolton (who I hope sings nothing like Michael) tries going that route.  When she broke her maiden on the turf in April last year, she did it against a field that produced three stakeswinners and a fourth winner.  That only makes it harder to forgive her last race, a disastrous last place in a Rhode Island listed stakes on the turf.  She can’t use the grassy surface as an excuse.  She’s been exhibiting a frightful trend in her past four races for a three-year-old: each one has been one has been slower than the previous.  There’s no question this is a talent filly.  She’s cashed checks in four stakes races, including a promising fifth in a loaded GII Mistaken Soda Identity.  Perhaps she just needs a bit of a rest to get back on track.  She gets six weeks.

PP 4 UNREAL WOLF(KY) (STEPHEN GOT EVEN x DUBAI MILLENNIUM (GB) x SOVEREIGN DANCER) bred and trained by graywolf17 (Wolf’s Den, 12%) Odds: 5-1

Last year, Graywolf’s Snappy Hero won Maine’s Grade II Mellow Breeze and followed that with a win in the Great Fiddle Sticks.  This year, he entered a pair of runners in the Mellow Breeze and won it with one of them.  Unfortunately the one he brought back here was the other one.  Unreal Wolf has not looked competitive in either of her previous graded races.  She does seem to do her best running at this distance and fillies this young can always make sudden improvement, so a piece of the check would not be out of the question.  Crafty trainer makes it possible for even more.

PP 5 LIFELESS PULP(KY) (SMART STRIKE x DANZIG x SECRETARIAT) bred and trained by rori (Pierchinski Stables, 18%) Odds: 5-2

After a swift third against the boys in the Grade III Tommy Wayne Johnson, this one had her connections Derby dreaming.  They shipped her to Dubai and back to Kentucky to try boys in derby lock races.  While she was not close to winning either, she deserves credit for beating half the field both times.  There is a chance she’s been discouraged by her distant seventh place finished, but this is a huge drop in class, and while her figures seem to trail the favorite’s, she’s undoubtedly matured since her 99 figure in the Tommy Wayne Johnson.  So expect something well into the 100’s.

PP 6 NICE DEEZINE(KY) (STORM CAT x MR. PROSPECTOR x NIJINSKY II) bred and trained by borrow1 (Deadinthelane Stables, 13%) Odds: 4-1

She won her first three races in classy style, including her very quick win in a listed stakes against a very strong field that included the 11^th ranked filly and several other stakeswinners.  It seemed reasonable to take a big step up from there for this most expensively bred filly.  A Grade I win would put her in the Oaks, so connections put her in the Grade I City of Angels.  She stayed in contention for a half, but it was just too much too soon.  She should find the competition easier here and would be no surprise.

Summary.   It’s tough to argue with the morning line on this race.  Vheissu has been running the fastest, but Lifeless Pulp has been running against better and Nice Deezine is rapidly improving and lightly raced.  Timmn will say Lifeless Pulp / Vheissu/ Nice Deezine.