Ollie’s Quest leads turfers by the numbers in rich Deeproute Reserve(G1)
Kentucky– Numbers, numbers, numbers! How in the world can you handicap a 20-horse Bluegrass Derby or Kentucky Derby field?!!? Post positions, odds, speed figures, winning margins, losing margins, final times, blah! What’s a poor ‘capper to do?
So many numbers and no calculator in sight. And numbers rule the day too for the Grade 1 $500,000 DeepRoute.com Reserve. Fourteen colts, horses, and one filly go nine furlongs over the firm Kentucky turf course. Since today I can’t stand counting beyond the number 10 (LOL!), let’s group the horses as if they all had single-digit morning lines. Somewhere, there’s gotta be a numbers factor that will lead to a winner, or, at least, a tasty longshot…………….
One for Fun: Seeking Sal (11/1)
The 2006 Breeders Mile hero needs little introduction. Seeking Sal has put together one of the best turf miler campaigns in Sim history, winning over $6-million and near 20 lifetime victories. And he’s not limited to a flat mile either — the Seeking The Gold son can and will demolish nine furlongs like evening dinner.
But 2008 has not been kind to the 6yo horse. He’s 0-for-2 and in a bad way at that, finishing as a well-beaten also ran in a listed stakes as well as the Boogity Bear(G3) last month. Seeking Sal just hasn’t been the same horse since struggling home in defense of his BB Mile title last November. At 44 career starts, one must wonder if he’s nearing the end of his long rope. Trainer Topicount though knows her horses, but I wonder if even she thinks Seeking Sal is ain a good spot Saturday. Look for Seeking Sal as usual behind the pace or about midpack. Odds and recent form indicate that he’ll not only need a super-duper pep talk before the starting gate, but also a few prayers too.
Blues Are Twos: Fearsome(KY) & GR Smack (12/1)
A couple of closers roll the magic number two in their odds. Both Fearsome and GR Smack are recent Grade 3 winners. Fearsome won the Boogity Bear(G3) photo with a big 111 SP#. GR Smack took the Misfired Bogie(G3) handily with a 106 SP#.
Ah Ha! Squirrel vs. Epic, both from the GR Simsters residency train these two foes. Tracy’s Fearsome, by Fusaichi Pegasus, gets the edge on recent superior form. The 4yo colt has only won 4 of 24 lifetime starts, but he’s hit the board in a great percentage of those races. So he’s been a trooper for Tracy and really picked up the beat towards the end of last year. Solid numbers in stakes turf short routes culiminated in the Grade score. Dan’s GR Smack, on the other hand, has spent most of his career confined to the ALW ranks. That is, until the 5yo son of Sadler’s Wells threw some big numbers over 9f and thus entered his Grade 3 race stepping way up in class. Can’t fault the victory, but maybe it was a “lesser” field than Fearsome’s field.
Still, it’s very difficult to seperate the two. I give the slight edge though to Fearsome on his consistent recent speed figs. He also breaks out of Post #12 to match his odds, so great karma there! Two excellent horses with great shots here!
Five Alive: Yeah(KY) (15/1)
Kobras over at the Northwest Racing Circuit steps up his Awesome Again colt Yeah(KY). The 4yo colt has spent most of his 22-start career around one-turn. He recently got back into short route running and he’s had some success stretching out. He won an ALW as well as a Washington mile stakes, climbing to 108 SP#. The speedster runs well when pressing the pace.
Yeah(KY) comes into Saturday after an honest 5-week breather. The colt had previously tried to wheel back on two weeks rest and unfortunately faded a bit down the lane. There’s some fancy speed in ths goup though, so he’ll have to pass the class test. His speed figures indicate that he’s ready for the step up. A live sleeper, especially if a couple of the favorites throw clinkers.
Tricks at Six: Ollie’s Quest (6/1) and Order In The Court(KY) (16/1)
We got the “old man” fave and a young pup longshot rolling icy number six. First up, Nagnagnag’s Order In The Court climbed to the graded stakes in his last start. The modestly bred 4yo son of Doneraile Court rallied quite nice for a 3rd place finish in the Ft Lauderdale(G3). The youngster rode a three ALW race win streak into the contest. He doesn’t have a flashy lifetime record (6-for-23 with only $100k in earnings). However, ‘Court is prime example of a horse getting better with experience and age. We’ll see if he can keep the midpack momentum going foraward. A lot of times though, horses like him just got lucky in a soft spot and subsequently struggle when asked to immediately climb even further in class.
No class questions at all for our racetime favorite Ollie’s Quest. Rbokie of the Great Plains Residency trains the 7yo son of popular Sim racemare Fantastic Ollie (earner of over $1.6 million). Ollie’s Quest has yet to catch his momma’s earnings record, but his own record is not too shabby indeed. The Rainbow Quest son has over $700k in the bank and boasts a nifty 7-for-30 numbers dance. The big boy showed off his sweeping come-from-the-clouds running style late last year, winning back-to-back listed level contests.
Riding a huge upswing in form, Ollie’s Quest then took on the graded ranks beginning January of this season. And he’s been quite a hot dog over nine furlongs, hitting the board in three straight with a couple of 110 SP#s to his credit. He’s never won a graded stakes — gotta love his form and his love for the distance. Is he due for a clinker or will he deliver an early Mother’s Day present for Fantistic Ollie? Go, Hot Dog, GO!
Sevens’ Heaven: Bannaby(KY), Black Coin, & Rockin’ Pneumonia(IRE) (7/1)
Big graded stakes experience goes to our lucky # sevens. We stretch out with Rafa’s miler Bannaby, by Unbridled’s Song. Bannaby won the Laffit Handicap(G3) with a monstrous 114 SP# back in Janaury. The 4yo colt rode a bridesmaid stakes treak into that race and positively sizzled from behind the pace. Rafa gave him a well-deserved two month layoff after the victory. Bannaby, however, returned rather pedestrian-like, finishing up the track in a pair of Grade 2 events. When compared to Saturday’s other starters, this colt’s still a bit green with a 6-for-18 record. He hasn’t tested anything beyond a mile since dirt surface days. He’s a bit of a wildcard, but I don’t see anything in his PPs that suggests he won’t get the extra furlong. Quite a dangerous colt if he can bounce back into form in this spot.
Black Coin is also a bit on the green side with only 19 starts. However, the 5yo son of Sadler’s Wells cuts back in distance. Master trainer Kevoman of EAAA Residency had this guy on a roll last year, winning a World Cup race. Interestingly, that effort was over nine furlongs. Black Coin qualified for the BB Mile, but ran forgettably. The horse quickly recovered though when asked to stretch out to an extra furlong, finishing 2nd in the celebrated Pennsylvania Handicap(G1) on DPCD day. This year however, Kevoman has had Black Coin chasing the Long Division. He was unplaced in a couple of Grade 1s over 12f. This horse is just awesome-looking. The stalker’s proven at this distance. Hopefully he isn’t too tired after those two rough March 12f efforts. Very dangerous and probably the one to beat if on target.
Pastures Of Green’s Equinics stables sends out our other lucky # 7. Rockin’ Pneumonia sure has been around a block two, making his 47th lifetime appearance. The 6yo Rock Of Gibraltar horse was once upon a time locked in the turf sprint ranks, where he was a Grade 3 winner. Then he switched to short routes at age 5 and promptly added another Grade 3 victory’s earning to his $629k bankroll. Gotta say that this speedster is often close and sure give his all each time out. I love how he stepped back into the ALW ranks LTO and won big time. Rockin Pneumonia hadn’t won in over a year prior to that. We should be aware of this horse tomorrow. He could really be a confident monster out of the gate, trying to steal this one wire to wire. Deserves respect as an upset contender.
Eights’ Great: Dark Prophet & Crimson Secret (8/1) and Perfect Son(KY) (18/1)
Pretty figures all around for our number eights. Selnurnivek of Minnesota Downs drops Crimson Secret back to short routes. The Kingmambo horse was quite a hot commodity late last season, stringing together stakes score from 8.5f to 10f. The stalker got passed late though when stepped up to the grades in the nine furlong Sanders(G2) in January. Wow, this horse is gonna be one to watch with only 16 starts. After the January race, Crimson Secret stretched out incrementally to 12f and was just fabulous-looking. Selnurnivek is still trying to poinpoint this guy’s superior distance. Match Crimson Secret with Black Coin as your ones to watch beyond this race! Tough schedule recently though — we’ll see if the cutback in distance turns him around fresh.
Lenny always brings his share of flashy-looking youngsters, but Dark Prophet is a rather experienced horse this time around. The 5yo son of Point Given spent the entirety of his 27 start career in the turf ALW ranks for Lenny, that is, till this season. Lenny stepped up Dark Prophet to the stakes ranks after the horse got on a winning roll. Dark Prophet promtply snared a 7.5f stakes and hit the board since. The stickler though is that those races were around one-turn. Dark Prophet ALW career came mostly over short routes. I’m not sure what Lenny anticipates here stretching out Dark Prophet again. Didn’t the horse finally prove himself to be a one-turner? Puzzler. IMO, this is a bad entry by Lenny.
Shagfarms joins the action with our eightish longshot, Perfect Son. The Pleasantly Perfect 4yo developed slowly for Shag. Last July though, the colt really hit his stride when stretched out to middle turfy distances. He won the Saint Ledge(G3) over 10f and hit the board in other premier 3yo colt turf grades like the Big Red(G1) and Upper California Derby(G3). Unfortunately, autumn hit and the colt just didn’t like the cooler temperatures, falling way off form. He hasn’t recovered since. This colt has talent somewhere deep down inside. He’ll need a fast pace up front to fire big from the back of the pack. Will the real Perfect Son show up? Sleeper on the merits of his back class.
Fine Nines: Synchronization (9/1) and A Case in Point(KY) (99/1)
Our final two contestants will be dressed to the nines (Ha, har!). Corza’s Synchronization will be all decked out in his golden bridle. The Sim gods sure know that Synchronization can afford it — the 4yo son of Tactial Cat has earned over $1.4 million in just 18 outings. Only three lifetime victories too for the colt , but he made them count, winning the rich Pennsylvania Handicap(G1) on DPCD Day last year. Synchronization had an impressive campaign in the major sophomore and late-season older horse turf grades. He hit the board in races like the Sydney Derby, World Cup Turf Classic, and Movieland Derby, all Grade 1 events. The speedster seems to be best over the mighty 10f. The colt threw a clinker in his last effort shortening up on Sand Castle Day. Bottom line, this speedster desrves mucho respect. He positively oozes in class and black type. I like how this is his 3rd race back after a layoff. The key with him though is that he has to fight off some honest speed and sometimes he’s not the best at doing that. On a mission up front.
Will the filly A Case In Point be dressed up with Kentucky’s May flowers braided through her pretty mane? Or will her trainer Tsunami dress up with a flowery hair-do, all frilly and jocular-like? Ha! Your guess is as good as mine for A Case In Point’s paddock appearance. A recent $2.5k claimer, the 4yo daughter of Point Given will be no factor, except maybe for laughs and plenty of mint juleps. What are you doing Tsu? Ha! Strike up that rowdy Great Plains band and several poor straight bourbons (hold the rocks, please)!
Snowchief’s Picks:
Wow! This is a very nice field. Black Coin and Crimson Secret are the ones to watch — they both have bright futures.
Synchronization is a proven commodity. Bannaby must pass the extra furlong test and I don’t think that’ll be much of a problem, but who knows?
Rockin Pneumonia threw a huge # in the ALW ranks LTO and sometimes that makes all the difference in a tasty upset. Order In The Court might’ve caught a soft field LTO, but maybe not.
Fearsome has the numbers karma. He and GR Smack are improving sorts but anything can and will go in a Grade 1.
Seeking Sal is probably near the end of his rope, but you always gotta watch out for the legend. I don’t like Dark Prophet or A Case In Point. Perfect Son needs to recover form, but he has back class, so watch him. Yeah could be ready, but still an outsider.
But it’s Derby weekend and I’m going with the horse who’s a 9f specialist, a midpacker, and a dramatic story! Ollie’s Quest in a whistler over Crimson Secret, Black Coin, and Synchronization! Rbokie, I heard that nasty shout (“Why did you jinx my horse, Snowchief?!!!?”) all the way here in Cleveland! Ha!
Win: Ollie’s Quest
Place: Crimson Secret
Show: Black Coin or Synchronization
Numbers Longshot: Fearsome (12/1 , from post # 12!)
Happy Derby Day, Sim gamers!