Bluegrass Oaks #16-20
BLUEGRASS OAKS POST POSITIONS 16-20
Well here we go, the big day is finally here and the twenty strong field has been divided into quarters to allow your BTB Reporters to go into some extra detail on each of the runners. You’ll get four different styles but hopefully you can enjoy each, almost as much as you’ll enjoy the race itself.
Let’s take a look at the outside stalls, which include two of the top four on the morning line-
PP 16 GRANDSTAND DELIGHT(KY) 19/1 (ROCK HARD TEN x STORM CAT x SEATTLE SLEW) Trained by al She is the second foal of a Grade G mare with plenty of blue blood on her dam side. Her sire is Rock Hard Ten, a third year sire who put up some eye popping numbers from his first crop and has continued to put up really good numbers. He’s by Kris S and should be producing runners at between 8-10f. A winner of four of her nine races, her first three as a two year old- a $23k maiden in Alabama, and two $52k allowances in Florida, the latter of which was over 8f. Her final win was in her last, the Grade III Joockey Guild stakes over 8.5f in Illinois.She put up a sparkling 105 sp that day and beat a filed which had already earned $1.7 million between them. That sp alone entitles her to respect and that fact that she was still seven lengths away in twelvth place at the three quarter pole suggests she should have no problem with the extra half a furlong. The only downside of that run though was that it came on rain affected ground. Does that account for the improved performance? Or is she simply getting better? Only the race itself will tell us. Her running style may also cause her problems here as there is one really fast starter and several who will sit just a few lengths back who have the tactical speed to finish fast. The race may be over before she can really land a blow but assuming the improvement wasn’t due to the ground 19/1 on the morning line still looks to big. She must have a decent chance of reaching the money. PP 17 LUZERNE(KY) 14/1 (PULPIT x DANZIG x BUCKPASSER) Trained by malekfarms Bred from scratch to plenty of top class blood on the dam side, she is sired by Pulpit who won the Bluegrass and Fountain of youth and led the Kuntucky Debry before fading into fourth. Despite being by A P Indy, most of his runners seem to be best at extended sprints or a mile. She has run nine times, winning only twice- her maiden win ans then her second run in a Stakes over 6.5f in Ontario. She has run some nice races since without looking top class and although her last run was her best (in the Grade I Lool Oaks) it still only produced a 99sp and a third place finish. She was beaten that day by Sisson’s Mark and Rattysburg both of who re-opose today.She will porbably improve again today but I can’t see her improving the 8-10 sp points needed to win today and there is no obvious reason for her to beat the two who beat her last time up. She is at 14/1 in the morning line- five points better that Grandstand Delight who has run 6 points better and is too short a price. Would be a major surprise if she were to reach the money today.
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PP 18 BLACK FLAG FLYING(KY) 7/1 |
(A.P. INDY x FORTY NINER x BLUSHING GROOM(FR)) Trained by simsters3 The first foal of a class C mare who has a bit of an unusual pedigree herself with a dirt/turf and speed/distance mix. She is by star sire A P Indy and should therefore be best at around 9-12f although the dam side breeding must bring some unknown factors into that. She has won four of her eight races, her maiden over 8f in Nevada and then three in a row- an 8f stakes in rain affected ground in Utah and then the Grade 1 Movieland Starlet where she beat the re-opposing Demonic Presence and then her first three year old run in Grade III Santa Jezebel over the same trip. Her last three races have all been over the same 8.5f trip and she has really looked as though the step up to todays trip at least is due. Nehi Orange who beat her in the Grade I Vermont Lovers just lasted home that day and may not do so over todays trip. Equivocations who beat her in the Grade II Louisiana Oaks got first run on her that day and will struggle to do so again. Provided she is not right out the back at the halfway point as in ther Louisiana Oaks, she looks to posess the tactical speed to power home from mid pack and must be a worthy favourite today. It’s going to take some big runs to keep her out of the money today.
PP 19 DEHERE DABEAR(KY) 17/1 (DEHERE x DEPUTY MINISTER x DANEHILL) Trained by peepshold The first foal of a Grade G mare with a great derby pedigree she is by Dehere who’s been a solid sire in the sim but there is a lot of close in-breeding in that pedigree and although she should get more than todays 9f she may want a lot more. She has won thre of her nine starts, getting off the mark at the second attempt in a $16k Oregon maiden and then stepping up on that big time to win an allowanc enext time up. She then ran some nice stakes races at around the mile mark before gaining her nest win over 9.5f ina New jersey stakes race. She finished a closing second over 8.5f latest in what is clearly a trip too short. She is another with a tendency to get behind by the half way stage and with even todays trip looking as if it may be too short she may find it difficult to get to the leaders late on. At least she’s guaranteed to get the trip and could easily reach the money if some of the principles tire later. May have a real future at 10f and would be a real tough nut to crack at that trip.
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PP 20 SENSIBLE(KY) 9/1 |
(JOHANNESBURG x BUCKAROO x HALO) Trained by pleasnttap A scratch bred filly with some fairly ordinary dam sire lines and out of a really good sprinting sire in Johannesburg. He produces a lot of turf and dirt sprinters butnot mutch that has gone well this far. Some race record here, with nine wins from ten starts and her only defeat coming in her first graded try as a two year old (she finished second in that). Likes to sit up with the pace and has now won five stakes from 7-8.5f and a Grade I over 8.5f (in her latest start where she beat another four of todays rivals. In all but two of those wins she took the lead at the three quarter pole and then held on to take the win. The real question is whether she was just doing enough or running out of gas. Given that she has always managed to stay at least a length in front I think that todays trip looks to be within her reach and if thats the case her 20/1 on the morning line is an absolute steal. With a 105 sp latest and a 104 the race before, she is already putting up bug numbers and could be a monster. I do think that todays trip might just be her limit but that could still be good enough, after all the finishing won’t be moving and a Bluegrass Oaks win is a Bluegrass Oaks win, whatever happens after that.
Well that’s all folks for this year, good luck to all the runners (especially the five covered above) and let’s hope we have a cracker of a race. Dave |