Grade II Bluegrass Distaff at 7f
PP1- Distinguish- 99/1 (JPN)- Honeylu– This young filly is a daughter of Mining out of a Tom Rolf mare and is the lone 3yo entered. She is five of eleven life time, all of which are on the dirt. Normally a front runner, but don’t think she has the speed to pull this off in this group. Distinguish has yet to win from off the pace, she must have the lead to win. Her one lone attempt at graded company ended in a well beaten 10th place finish, and that was a three year old only field. This is a very nice filly, but she simply is not ready to run with older horses at this point in her career. She is in way over her head and would be best served by running with three year olds for the next few months.
Predicted finish- 14th– Way too much too soon, no real shot.
PP2- Take it on the Run (MD)- 39/1– Kingcub- Next we have a 4yo out of Domestic Dispute and a Skip trial mare. Another front runner, but is capable of stalking and has won in this fashion. Coming off an impressive NW4x Allowance win would seem to set this one up for a career best speed figure, but even that does no figure to be enough this week. She has a top speed figure of 99 which is not really in the ball park of what it is going to take to win this week. Her last two attempts with graded company have been unmitigated disasters, beating only one horse and losing by a total of 26 lengths. She is most likely going run her career best race, but that is not going to be enough with this group.
Predicted finish- 12– Nice horse, but a bit outgunned with this group. Not quite up to graded stakes performances yet.
PP3- Sought and Found- 5/1– Jimj2- In looking at the past performances, a very obvious pattern emerges over the last four months: 111, 106, 111, 106…, guess what is coming this week. This 5yo daughter of Seeking the Gold out of a Dixieland Band mare could not be more perfectly bred for a seven furlong sprint. Even with these huge speed figures she has not had great success in graded races, never having won one in 31 starts. She is a horse that came come from way back, or sit mid pack, and is equally successful doing either. One knock against her though is she was huge chalk in short fields the last three races, but failed to win any. I think her best distance is actually at a mile or 7.5f, she seems to lack enough pure speed for true sprints. She will be there at the end and will most likely pick up a check, but she just doesn’t seem to win when she should.
Predicted finish- 5th– Will be coming late, but will run out of room. Has a legit shot, but don’t see it happening.
PP4- K’s by the Way- 9/1– Vertigo2- This is another late runner, a 6yo daughter of Forty Niner out of a Northern Dancer mare is a very blue blooded mare. Somewhat of a newcomer to stakes racing, she ran her first stakes race only one year ago after 24 previous starts. She has a career best speed figure is 108, which has been done twice. Her last race was a Grade II at six furlongs which she finished fourth, four behind the leader. Seven furlongs seems to be her best distance, which she is generally a late closer, but will show some early speed if the pace is easy. I would expect a somewhat hot pace, so K will be about 5-7 back before she makes her run. It is not a question if she belongs in this race because she does, but the finish is in question. In her one graded attempt she was unable to close at all down the stretch with a field that was very comparable to this one if not a touch softer. I see a mid pack finish with her passing tired horses down the stretch, but no getting up on the leaders.
Predicted finish- 7th– Could get up for a check, but not quite enough for a win. Has a punchers chance, but needs perfect trip and less than stellar efforts from all of the top horse.
PP5- Fetish (KY)- 5/1- Super26– A 4yo out of Cryptoclearance and the mare Midnite Kat (C-rated Danzig x Storm Cat) with over 400K in earning in 24 career starts. She is a veteran of nine graded stakes attempts that includes many top three finishes, but no wins. Has really been running some big races as of late with no speed figures below 105 in her last eight races. Generally a closer, but does not get so far back as to leave herself no chance. Expect to see her about five back and moving late. The distance of seven furlongs suits her well and her career best speed figure of 111 had been run at that distance. There really is nothing not to love about this filly except her habit of not winning.
Predicted finish- 2nd– Will run a huge race, but just does not get it done in graded races. Could be her week, and a win is not rally shocking as she is the co-favorite, but needs to break through.
PP6- Miss Roberts (KY)- 7/1– Theoc2– Next we have a very talented 4yo out Fusaichi Pegasus and the mare Kitty Katz (D-rated Storm Cat x Seattle Slew) with seven wins out of 22 starts. She has been running very well as of late with a 110 and 113 speed figure in her last two races. In her only graded attempt, she finished a decent fifth in a short field of nine in January. Generally a deep closer, but can be closer if the pace is soft which it will not be this week. This race really sets up well for her, as she will be flying at the end, but there is quality speed, and she is not the best closer, but close. She might have a bounce coming as she has run two monster races in a row, and asking for three in a row might be a bit much. Theoc2 has been good about giving her plenty of time off between starts, but I still think a bounce is in order.
Predicted finish- 4th– Will not fire an ‘A’ run, but her not quite best is still going to be good enough to pick up a check.
PP7- SJ’s Ghost Dance (KY)- 8/1– Factorx- Starting from the seven hole we have a 4yo out of Silver Ghost and a Northern Dancer mare with 220K in earnings in 16 career starts. Lightly raced, she sports an impressive nine wins in only 16 starts and has been on fire as of late, winning four of her last five races. Ghost Dance has shown very nice flexibility in winning and running 103+ speed figures in races from six furlongs to a mile. This is a horse that must have the lead, as she has never won from off the pace, and has led the field to the first call in all but one race on dirt (14 races). She has done a good part of her racing in short field races where speed is much easier to carry, and has had some races where she has faltered badly down the stretch when she has been pressed early. I do not see her making an easy lead and will be pressed early, in the middle and late. I simply do not see how she is going to stay on the front end with all of the speed that is in this race. She is the fastest and will get the lead, but that will compromise any chance of a win.
Predicted finish- 8th– Needs an uncontested lead and is not going to get it. If she fails to get the lead she has no shot at all.
PP8- Cormorant Creek- 10/1- Dosstables– Next we have a lightly raced 5yo mare out of Strodes Creek and a Dixieland Brass mare with six wins in 15 starts. Has had mixed results running with graded company and her last try was a disaster finishing a badly beaten twelfth. She did win a graded stakes way back in last July, and has not found the winners circle since. In her last four starts she has run speed figures ranging from 96 to 111 showing some real inconsistency. Her last graded race was the GIII Vermont is for Lovers and had a very similar make up as this race. I see the same thing happening where she falls too far back early and can not get anywhere near the front, and simply runs out of race. The jock must keep her involved early, or the race will be over by the first call. If she gets more than 6 back early it will be over for her as she has rarely made it back from this.
Predicted finish- 6th– She most likely will be too far back early and will be coming at the end, but will not be in the same zip code as the leaders when she does start to run.
PP9- Fulgurant- 13/1– General– In the nine post we have a 5yo mare out of Green Desert and the mare Brianna’s Mambo (G-rated Kingmambo x Storm Bird) is a veteran of 35 races with nine wins. This gal was a beast as a two and three old, but is primarily an allowance horse the last 15 months. She has had one stakes start since January of 2007 and finished a well beaten 1th place. She still regularly runs over 100 speed figures, but has not shown a dominant performance in years. Perhaps she once had the legs to run in a race like this, but it appears that her best days are in the past. She is still an incredible breeding point machine in allowance races but does not have much of a shot this week, and a finish that gets a check would be surprising. Another one of the closers, but I don’t see much closing happening this week.
Predicted finish- 13th– A great mare that has left her best in the past. Not quite up to the task anymore.
PP10- Seeking Power (KY)- 9/1– Elenalag- Next we have a lightly raced 4yo out of Seeking the Gold and an A.P. Indy mare with four wins in 16 starts. Her last three races have been with graded company and she has had a win and a third. The last race is a throw away as she was completely outclassed trying to run with the boys. Her career best speed figure is a nice 113 which was obtained running seven furlongs. This is a filly that is in her prime, and her closing style will serve her well this week. Should have a hot pace to set her up and she should be primed for a big effort.
Predicted finish- 1st– Should run a huge race and everything is set up perfectly for her.
PP11- Strike the Beat (TUR)- 11/1– Meguire6th– we have another 4yo next out of Strike the Gold and a Miswaki mare with five win s in 18 career starts. She generally runs a style that bounces between closer and stalker and does both equally well. Most likely will be somewhat close to the lead as there is not an abundance of speed horses, but he speed that is here is quality. Her last two races have produced her top two speed figures, a 108 and 110. Normally I would say a bounce is in order, but I think that the last two performances are more indicative of a horse reaching her prime rather than running monster races. Granted, there is a big jump from a restricted allowance race to a graded stakes race, but I believe she is ready for this. I would expect to see her sit about three or four off of the lead and pounce down the stretch.
Predicted finish- 3rd– Not quite ready to win, but should be in the mix at the end.
PP12- Ruby’s Pride (KY)- 15/1– Trauma92- In the twelve hole we have a 4yo daughter out of Cyrptoclreance and the dam Ruby Doctor (G-rated Clever Trick x Family Doctor) with five wins in 22 starts. Mostly a front runner, but her last win was from a stalking run. Her 107 speed figure two races ago was by far her best career performance, and she will need a better one than that to have a shot this week. A late bloomer she needed ten stars to break her maiden. She has had one start at seven furlongs and faded at the end, but this was way back when she was a 2yo and we can throw that out I think. We can not throw out the fact that she can carry her speed to the wire at six furlongs, but not at 6.5. I do think that the seven furlongs is going to be a problem, and could be backing up badly down the stretch.
Predicted finish- 9th– Will be near the front early, but will not be there at the end. Do not think she is goingto care for the pace of a graded seven furlong race one bit.
PP13- Barb’s Baby Inside- 8/1- Jakebarn- Next we have a 5yo mare out of E Dubai and an Unbridled’s Song mare with seven wins in 26 races. Primarily a miler early in her career she has been shortened up as of late with some success. This is a horse that can lead or stalk and have won doing both. Her career best performance was a 111 back in October of 2007 where she won a GIII wiring the field. She has not had that kind of success since except one stakes win at six furlongs in a short field of eight. Her one graded attempt at seven furlongs was two races back and ended with her fading to 6th place after leading for most of the race. The same scenario is likely to happen again this week. She will be near the front early, but the hot pace is going to compromise her chances as the closers are going to rule the day this week.
Predicted finish- 10th– her best racing was done last fall, and unless she can find the same magic, this is not going to end well.
PP14- Seven Come Eleven- 20/1- Fatattack2– lastly we have a 4yo mare named after a Craps saying out of Ghostzapper and a Fappiano mare. The truest stalker of the bunch, she has been on and off dirt twice in her career with her best races coming on dirt. She has won two stakes races at 7 furlongs, but one was on turf and the other was restricted so both of those can be thrown out. Her last race at seven furlongs was run with multiple graded and stakes winners and she was unable to make the lead or be anywhere near it. This race will be much nastier pace wise and I simply do not think she can make the lead or stay up front at all. This is a very nice mare, but not quite ready for stakes competition.
Predicted finish- 11th– Previous race with similar competition was out gunned and would expect the same to happen this week.