Guaranteed Long Shot

In a weekend light on graded races around the world, simulcasting fans and North Dakota faithful will turn their attention to one of the most contentious races of the season, the $250,000 Grade II Middle Ground Mile for three year olds and up.

In this full field of 14, no horse is expected to go off at less than 6-1 odds.  Even last year’s eclipse award runner up Tuff Enuff will go off at 10-1, and the longest shot on the board, at 25-1, has six graded in the money finishes in his 12 starts.

Every horse has a reason he can win; every horse has a reason he should lose.  Pick your angle and enjoy the ride.

Here is a look at the field:

1. Deep closer Avacodo Bill (6yo h, Secret Odds x Sadler’s Well’s x Night Invader) will have plenty of speed to run at in this.  The Rouk (11%) trained horse has five stakes wins, including the G2 Brooke Lynn.  He finished a third last out as the second choice in the G2 Copenhagen.  Always dangerous and in good form, he has been in the money in 6 of his last 7 races.

2. King Cadet (4 yo c, Danzig x Big Project (Mr. Prospector) x Big Spruce) has been winless since a Tuesday allowance race eight months and eight races ago.  However, the Cadet (14%) trainee owns five in the money finishes in that time including a fading second in the G2 Mansur LeRoys Handicap.  He runs near the front and has been successful at both one- and two-turn races.  Jockey DeMoney has struggled bringing them home.

3. An impressive 11% of the offspring of Best of the Bests(IRE), sire of Best of the Sun (IRE) (4 yo c, Best of the Bests(IRE) x Honor Grades x Scenic (IRE)), are stakes winners, although none has won a graded stakes yet.  Out of the successful Sunline (17%) stable, Sun has finished first or second in eight if his last ten races.  He delivered as the co-favorite last out in The Fager’s Poster Challenge and ships in from that effort in Malaysia.  Dependable hard knocker and a lukewarm co-favorite here.  Another that usually runs near the lead.

4. God’s Gift (3 yo c, Fusaichi Pegasus x Fat Cat (Storm Cat) x Woodman) already owns six wins in his ten starts, all this year.  He has a second in the G2 Buckeye Derby and a win against older in the No Reception SQ Cap two races back.  Another early runner, but at 17-1 the Lulu (14%) trained, expensively bred colt deserves a long look.

5. Robert the Bruce (5 yo h, Mt. Livermore x Roberto x In Reality) made his stakes debut last time a success, wiring Avacodo Bill and six others in the G2 Copenhagen Cup.  He has been patiently handled by Dioscuri (14%), while winning a third of his two-turn races.  He has won every other race for the past six months.  Bad news about that pattern is if it continues, you should look for his next race.

6. North Dakota’s top jockey, J Hernandez, chose to ride the longest shot in the race, Instant Classic (3 yo c, Forty Niner x Unbridled x Northern Dancer).  Classic won his last two races easily in unimpressive times against short fields, and that, besides his age, may account for the long odds.  But prior to that, ace trainer SoCalMan (29%), entered him in seven straight graded stakes against three year olds, and the royally bred colt finished in the money six times.  Before we get too excited, we should note that he won none of those races, and he has yet to face older.  OK, at 25-1, we can get a little excited.

7. A controversial trainer once criticized how frequently LadySierra1 (16%) ran Tuff Enuff (4 yo c, Chester House x Bridget Jones (Octagonal (NZ)) x Academy Award) as a three year old, but the results were astounding: $5,000,000 in the bank; wins in the G1 Middle Jewel, New Yorker, and Breeders Bowl Classic Stakes; second fastest 12f of the year; second in the Eclipse Award voting for three year old colts.  Alas, the four year old campaign has not been as impressive.  He got his first win in eight starts last out in the ungraded Carnival Kid Memorial Stakes, wiring the field.  It was his first time trying to run in a front-running manor, and it will be interesting to see what instructions LadySierra gives jockey L Callow this time.  Odds are 10-1 on the colt still rated number six in the world.

8. Primetime Emblem (4 yo c, Our Emblem x Danzig x Storm Cat) ran well in 23 sprints, winning eight times, then tried a two-turn graded stakes last time out, where he finished third in the G2 Upstate BB Stakes after holding a large lead into the stretch.  SS89 (12%) was encouraged enough to try again against these.  Runs early, and there are too many of this type to recommend here.  On the other hand, he knows how to win… 

9. Go King Kirby (5 yo h, Kingmambo x Siler Ghost x Bold Ruler) hasn’t finished in the money in over 30 weeks.  However, if there was ever a time for a late runner like this Kirby55 (16%) trainee to wake up, this is the field.  Excuse me while I wait for more signs of life, though.

10. Noting the competitive field, trainer Calle2 (11%) waited until the last minute to enter Tom E Nearctic (4 yo c, E Dubai x Tom Rolfe x Nearctic) in this race.  Tom owns the second most stakes points (to Tuff Enuff) in the field.  He owns two stakes wins this year, including the G1 Diplomat way.  He tends to come from mid-pack or further back. Much to like here.

11. Jockey K Killeen is a top ten jockey and signs aboard to ride Danzig with Buda (4yo c, Danzig x Nijinsky II x Nureyev).  The Juju (17%) trainee runs evenly.  His most impressive outing was the G1 Grenoble Sport as a three year old, but he is winless in 2005.

12. Big Biz (4 yo c, Spectacular Bid x Risen Star x Cox’s Ridge) seems to have learned to rate last out, winning the Koopa Troopa Cap.  That’s the good news.   Out of the Punisher (9%) barn, the bad news is his speed figures have not consistently been in triple digits, like many have been.

13. Winner of three graded stakes, Red Hot Cat (4 yo c, Silver Deputy x Tabasco Cat x Devil’s Bag), the co-favorite gets jockey W Von Wedel, who is winning at a 19% clip for the year. Mirasol’s (15%) colt has shown the ability to win on the lead and just off it.  Much to like.

14. The number three North Dakota jockey, P Gangi, opts for the out side horse Holiday Hostage (Robellino x Palace Music x Conquistador Cielo).  The successful IdStable (18%) trains.   Like Tuff Enuff, he may have peaked last year.  His best race came 43 weeks ago, though if he could repeat that here, he would crush the field.

Morning line picks: 3-13-1-10

Timmn’s picks: 10-6-1-4

To comment, email timmn@hotmail.com