The Unthinkable Stakes
Race : Unthinkable Stakes – Grade II – $200,000
Track : New Hampshire
Restrictions : Fillies and mares, 4 years old and up
Distance : Seven furlongs on the Dirt
Welcome to New Hampshire for the 9th running of the G2-Unthinkable Stakes. On my way into to town I stopped in Pennsylvania to watch my horse King Newbie try to break her maiden. Then since I was in the state next door I decided to stop in at the Vermont Residency and thank the NAG (Newbie Assistance Group) in person for giving me King Newbie. Thanks so much Ladysecret, Roys, Chilcoat, Sandy, Nora and Bucksplash for helping out new players in this way, it is appreciated!
Winner of the Unthinkable Stakes in 2003 was Heaven’s Gate. She holds the stakes record here with a 116. She was trained by dixiedotco. I haven’t been covering the horse racing circuit very long, but long enough to hear great things about this successful trainer who wins 25% of the time. Not only did she have a successful racing career, retired grade B, Heaven’s Gate has produced a graded winner, a stakes winner and a stakes placed horse. Her filly from 2008 has yet to race.
On to today’s race here in New Hampshire. We have a full field of fillies and mares fighting it out to take home their share of the $200,000 purse over 7 furlongs on the fast dirt. Looks like there is going to be some tough competition, the race has attracted 5 of the top 25 ranked dirt sprinters, three in the top 10. The favorite has never won this race and neither has a true long shot. There has not been a dominate jockey in the past running of this race either. There are also three six year old girls joining the field of 4 and 5 year olds. Let’s have a look:
PP 1 FLEETWOOD MIA (STRIKE THE GOLD x SEATTLE SLEW x HIS MAJESTY) bred and trained by fleetwood (Brewer Racking Stable, 17%) Odds: 8 to 1
Drawing PP 1 is million dollar winner Fleetwood Mia. She has only finished out of the money 4 times in her 26 career starts and is ranked number 2 in dirt sprints for her age. Fleetwood Mia is the second graded winner out of game dam Seattle Within Sea. In her last time out at the G2-The New York Stampede she came in second in an average field. As is her style, she waited until just after 3rd call and then put the pressure on, but it just wasn’t enough to catch wire to wire winner Stormy Peg. She hasn’t raced successfully over 6.5 furlongs since last August in her G1 win. The two times she has tried the longer distances since then she finished 8th and 10th. She will have jockey P Haynes who is hot this year.
PP 2 SANFRAN (MINESHAFT x A.P. INDY x DANZIG) bred by graz30 and trained by elranchoti (Seveii Stables, 23%) Odds: 18 to 1
Sanfran is making her graded debut here. She is coming off two wins in allowance races and although her career high speed is one of the lowest in the field, it is only by a few points. She is the first of two horses in the field to have come from claiming ranks. Trainer and owner at Seveii picked her up last June for $35,000. Since then this 5 year old out of Dan’s All Gone has won 4 times. Some of her best races have been on off tracks which she won’t have here. The biggest question for Sanfran is will she be able to handle the large jump in class?
PP 3 STOCKING FILLER (KY) (CAT THIEF x SAINT BALLADO x MARIA’S MON bred by foxon4 and trained by jennah2 (Ldyssecret Stables, 10%) Odds: 15 to 1
This lightly raced 4 year old is coming off two victories and her two highest career speeds. She won her graded debut last time out at the G2-The Wild West Dash Stakes, putting up a 110 SP. Both of those races were 6 furlongs and the last two times she tried going longer than 6.5 furlongs she finished 9th and 13th. She has never won a race where she started out worse than 3rd place. With so many horses in the field fighting for the early lead, she is going to need a great start out of the gates to run this race the way she likes to. Drawing a post position closer to the rail should help.
PP 4 BENNY BEING BENNY (MORE THAN READY x FUSAICHI PEGASUS x DANEHILL bred and trained by ebryant (Mia and Ben Acres, 14%) Odds: 10 to 1
With a pair of graded victories already, it looks like this 5 year old scratch bred is trying to top the $1,000,000 mark here in New Hampshire. She hasn’t run in graded company on the dirt in almost 7 months, although trainer decided to see if she like the turf with a G1 try late last year. I think she made her preference for the dirt obvious with her 13 place finish there. That race may be contributing to her high odds here. If you look just at her previous dirt sprints she looks like she should be right in the thick of things here. One thing to consider is she has mostly run shorter races recently and although she has been finishing in the money, she spends most of the race in the lead. Unfortunately she hasn’t been able to hold on to the lead and hasn’t won in her last 7 attempts. I am not sure if the increased distance is going to help her here.
PP 5 ELEGY (KY) (A.P. INDY x FORTY NINER x DANZIG) bred by chile and trained by chevrolet (Chevrolet Stables, 12%) Odds: 10 to 1
This 4 year old out of Future Shock Too is trying her ninth time for a stakes or graded stakes victory. She has 4 second place finishes and 2 third place finishes in her stakes tries, but she has never been first across the line. Elegy has won 33% of her races, so she definitely can win races, but hasn’t been able to do it in this class yet. In her last time out at the G2-The Wild West Dash Stakes she finished third behind Stocking Filler and I See Your Point, also in the field today. And two races ago in the G3-Vermont is for Lovers she finished behind Fleetwood Mia, but ahead of Stirling Form.
PP 6 I SEE YOUR POINT (KY) (POINT GIVEN x STORM BIRD x WILD AGAIN) bred and trained by baggio (Baggio Stables, 8%) Odds: 20 to 1
I See Your Point made her graded debut last time out (straight from allowance races) with an impressive 2nd place finish and her career high speed of 108. She hasn’t tried 7 furlongs since early in her debut season. This scratch bred 4 year old only has 3 wins, but she hasn’t finished out of the money since last year and is looking good. I See Your Point was close to overtaking Stocking Filler to win last time out, but was just short. She looks like she is maturing late and it just might be her time to shine.
PP 7 SAND SNAKE (IRE) (EL PRADO(IRE) x FORTY NINER x SADLER’S WELLS) bred and trained by lopo87 (Given Stables: Fire and Blood, 21%) Odds: 10 to 1
Sand Snake is coming off a pair of stakes wins and her two career high speeds. She tried to makes this jump in class last July without success. Given Stables is hoping she is ready now. With the shorter distance and coming off two wins I think she will be able to handle herself in this class this time. Earlier in her career she liked to race well off the pace, but has been running more towards the front in her last few races. It would probably benefit her to stay back until after third call in this field.
PP 8 HEART OF LIGHT (KY) (TIZNOW x UNBRIDLED x HOIST THE FLAG) bred and trained by mav1764 (Deadinthelane Stables, 15%) Odds: 17 to 1
Heart of Light might have preferred an off track for the race today. Her best finish ever against graded company came a year ago at the G2-Manhattan District Stakes where this scratch bred finished second. Her next time out she finished third in a G3 race. She has tried this class 4 other times without success. Since last fall trainer mav1764 has been trying to make the jump in class, but it hasn’t been successful. When she faces overnight or listed stakes and allowance races she is bringing home the win, but against graded company she struggles. With the tough competition in this race I fear she will struggle her as well.
PP 9 STIRLING FORM (A.P. INDY x DYNAFORMER x STORM BIRD) bred by tmica and trained by jrogue2 (Jrogue Stables,18%) Odds: 5 to 1
Stirling Form impressively broke her maiden on her first time out with a speed of 97! She has only finished out of the money 5 times in her 18 career starts and 4 of those times were routes. The only sprint where she hasn’t been on the board was the G3-Vermont Is 4 Lovers two races ago where she faced tough competition and when the other closers started passing her she faded. There have also only been two sprints where this 5 year old out of Storm Halo didn’t put up at least a triple digit speed figure. She will let the other horses fight it out for the early lead, but I expect her to fly past most of them coming down the stretch. Stirling Form is the reigning Unthinking Stakes Champion winner here last year. She will be tough to beat.
PP 10 ACTUAL FACTUAL (BERNSTEIN x NOT FOR LOVE x PAS SEUL bred and trained by pacer (Chayely A, 18%) Odds: 11 to 1
Actual Factual is the second 6 year old in the race. In her 31 career starts she has only finished worse than 5th twice. Unfortunately the first time was in her graded debut and the second time was just two races ago. Actual Factual is the only offspring of multiple stakes winner Missakiss. She is making her second attempt with graded company here. She has had great success in allowance races and has come close in overnight and listed stakes, but hasn’t won. Against this tough field I don’t think she is going to find her first graded win here.
PP 11 WILDERNESS TRAIL (WOODMAN x SARATOGA SIX x AFFIRMED) bred and trained by losthecode (Topicount Stables, 15%) Odds: 11 to 1
Wilderness Trail is making her 2nd try at graded stakes. Trainer Topicount is hoping for a better go at it this time. After the first graded try she was able to string together 2 allowance wins, just missing the third by a head. She has been racing in stakes since then, but only winning once at The ORGANIC PROJECT Memorial with her career high speed of 107. Late last year this scratch bred horse finished ahead of Shaft Seeker, also in today’s field in The JILL’S BURN Stakes. She has only finished out of the money twice in her last 7 starts.
PP 12 LA VINOTINTO (MINESHAFT x KINGMAMBO x STORM CAT) bred and trained by venezolano (Otto Haack (Venezuela), 17%) Odds: 9 to 1
La Vinotinto, first and only offspring of Tete Storm, will be making her American Division debut. She had long trip over from Malaysia where she had her last three races. After a successful run of listed stakes her trainer kept her at the Malaysia track for a track restricted allowance race in her last time out. It was an easy field and should have been an easy win, but she was only able to hold on for third place. This will be her second try against graded company, her first a second place finish almost a year ago. Unfortunately there is a lot of early speed in the field and that won’t be working in La Vinotinto’s favor.
PP 13 SHAFT SEEKER (MINESHAFT x UNFUWAIN x MR. PROSPECTOR) bred and trained by peeps10 (Cobra Kai Racing Stables, 16%) Odds: 13 to 1
Starting from PP 13 is Shaft Seeker. She is making her graded debut here. She has only raced this distance 3 times, but hasn’t finished worse than 2nd in those starts. This 5 year old out of Prospect Dealing has the speed to be competitive here, but has not been consistent. She has been alternating a couple of triple digits speeds with speeds in the 90s. If she wants to be a factor her she will need one of her triple digit speeds. She is also coming off only three weeks rest so that could be an issue for her too.
PP 14 MRS. STARK REALITY (MR. GREELEY x GRAUSTARK x IN REALITY) bred and trained by stablebums (Smubs Stables, 14%) Odds: 9 to 2
Smubs Stables picked up Mrs. Stark Reality almost 2 years ago for $20,000 at a claiming race. Since then she has gone on to win 9 times and finish in the money 68% of the time on the dirt. This six year old scratch bred horse is making her 4 attempt to be in the winner’s circle against graded company. Mrs. Stark Reality has a pair of seconds in her other tries. I would say going from a $20,000 claimer race to being ranked 6 overall in dirt sprints is quite impressive. And as the favorite here I think she may continue to impress us.
I think there will be quite a few horses fighting it out for the early lead and I think we will find Stocking Filler in the lead most of the race. Late in the race I expect many to make their move and overtake most of the early speedsters. It is hard to choose from all the late runners, but I think Fleetwood Mia and Mrs. Stark Reality will move up impressively, but I think Stirling Form will reign here again. My picks for second and third are Fleetwood Mia and Stocking Filler.
Good luck and happy racing. J