Maine’s Mellow Breeze
Trainers hoping for Triple Tiara races plan their fillies’ schedules so that they won’t be running this late in April. Add to that a recent wealth of graded opportunities for three year-olds, and
The field may be small, and it may not contain any of the top rated fillies – only two are rated in the top 100; none any higher than 47th – but it looks very competitive. The last two runnings of the Mellow Breeze have been won by the longest odds fillies in the race. In 2007 it was won by graywolf7’s Snappy Hero at 17-1, and in 2006 jockey G Giant guided Warbager home at 14-1. Graywolf and G Giant may figure prominently again today. The trainer brings a pair of runners and the top jockey rides the favorite.
The winner won’t pay anything like that today. Even if the longest shot wins today, she won’t pay more than 6-1.
Here is a look at the field:
PP 1 UNREAL WOLF(KY) (STEPHEN GOT EVEN x
She broke her maiden in her first outing as a three year-old and followed that with what looked to be a very encouraging third in an overnight stakes. At the time the field in that stakes looked tough, but her foes from that day have gone 0 for 12 in their races since. Unreal Wolf tried the always tough We Get Signal stakes next and turned in a forgettable performance. She won for fun against a weak allowance field last time and tries the graded class again. This field is not as strong as the We Get Signal crew, and she is always eligible to make a big jump, but she needs a big jump: her 91 figure last time is some 14 points below some others here. Jockey pulled the upset last year with the longest priced filly. Let’s see if he can do it again.
PP 2 HOLY SOUP(AUS) (LONHRO (AUS) x ALPHABET SOUP x VAGUELY NOBLE) bred by taylormade, trained by graywolf6 (Wolf’s Den, 12%) Odds: 9-2
Holy Soup has a second and a third in six starts as a three-year-old. The loss on her grass try can be forgiven. So can her finish in the back half of the pack in the overnight stakes ran on the wet track. Maybe also her first start of the year, where she was a distant 9th against a very tough field that included a couple certain Bluegrass Oaks starters. I suppose even last time when she was second in a very tough allowance field where the winner ran off to an uncontested lead. At some point, though, she has to stop making excuses and find a way to win. If she’s going to win a graded stakes, this must be the day.
PP 3 ENFORCER(FL) (EXCHANGE RATE x PULPIT x PRIVATE ACCOUNT) bread and trained by mcsheen (Vansheen Stables, 15%) Odds: 5-2
In just four races this brown filly has already made a bit of noise. It looked like she was going to steal the Grade II Fantasy last time, only to be run down by a likely starter in the Oaks. She finished easily ahead of 12 other nice fillies that day. Her figure in the Fantasy is tied for the best in this field. She may get some early pressure from two or three of the outside fillies, but this looks like her race to lose. It’s probably too late to accumulate enough points to make the Oaks field herself, and the timing is probably too tight, but with a victory today, she may make a lot more in the Black Middle Flower. The Gentle Giant rides and already owns two Mellow Breeze victories.
PP 4 COURT LADY(KY) (
After starting her career with wins in her maiden debut, her allowance debut, and her stakes debut, she quite reasonably tried graded company against boys in the Grade II Minnesota Derby Trail. The first three races came against small and suspect fields, so it was uncertain how she would handle the class jump. Well, she ran like the 18-1 runner that she was. She next tried girls again, and despite passing several tired foes late in the Fantasy, she still finishing some nine lengths behind The Enforcer. Maybe she hated the sloppy surface that day, but nine lengths is a lot of real estate. Her dam made a very decent living finishing in the money but seldom winning. I’m not saying that’s Court Lady’s fate, but she’ll have to make a big turnaround to get her picture taken today.
PP 5 TABASCO AFFAIR(WV) (BLACK TIE AFFAIR(IRE) x
This co-favorite has six wins and five seconds in 11 starts, including three overnight stakes wins. Patient trainer at last finds a graded field he feels she can continue her success. Her 105 figure last time ties The Enforcer for the fastest here. It’s an improvement of 14 points over her penultimate and previously highest rated race, so if you believe in bounces for three-year-olds, she may be a candidate. (On the other hand, the sudden 14 point improvement should give courage to the four 6-1 fillies here.) It is also troubling that the jump came as she shortened from eight furlongs to seven. In fact she definitely has shown a preference for one-turn races. She is surely fast enough to be a major factor here, but there is a surprisingly large difference between a filly’s ability at seven or seven and a half furlongs and eight.
PP 6 CHANCELLOR(GER) (MONSUN(GER) x SADLER’S WELLS x SECRETARIAT) bred and trained by shades (Coolk Stables, 20%) Odds: 6-1
Beginning with the foals of 2007, the sire Monsun was “considerably upgraded,” but he still hasn’t produced a graded winner from the 91 runners in that 2007 crop. Chancellor has a big chance to be the first. With four wins in her five dirt routes and her triple digit figure last time, she clearly fits with the best in this field. She’s yet to try a stakes at any level, much less a Grade II, so she may wilt under the pressure, but I don’t see that happening, and neither does the highest percentage trainer in the race. Chancellor has faced a few decent fillies in her allowance races and handled them easily, though this is her toughest test yet.
PP 7 SIZZLING(AUS) (ENCOSTA DE LAGO (AUS) x GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x HAWKSTER) bred and trained by slim (Tees Stables, 14%) odds: 6-1
This filly was doing well sprinting, and then a funny thing happened in early March. The barn tried her in an allowance around two turns, and she responded with a very quick and convincing win against a decent field. The allowance-to-graded stakes class jump may be warranted here. She’s had another seven weeks to mature since posting her 100 speed figure, so we have every right to expect an improvement from that race.
Summary. It’s a dubious trifecta. One of the early runners is bound to fade and one of the late runners is sure to fire. But as far as looking for a winner, I’d rank their chances: The Enforcer / Sizzling / Chancellor.