Big Race Preview 3560
It is a big race day down under as
Race: 3560.5414 Sydney Derby – Grade I – $1,000,000
Track:
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old
Distance: A mile and one half on the Turf
Fourteen runners and no clear favorite. This is where we start to find out which of these three year olds could be good long distance turf runners. The spacing is not ideal to go from this race to the Derby de English six weeks away.
Our favorite is Woette’s Slipper. He was second at the Breeder’s Bowl Juvy Turf, and has been good at finishing second. He was second in the grade one Epiphany Too Handicap as well as second last time out in the grade one All Your Base Are Belong To Us Cup. There is no questioning his class but there will be a large distance question. He has been a close to the pace type runners in all of his races. His sire Forest Wildcat is not known for long distance runners. He should be close to the pace, and while his speed figures are nice at shorter distances he will need to get better as he goes longer.
Portman’s Perfect has some experience in longer races. He comes off a solid second place finish at a mile and three eights where he earned a 100 speed figure. That is one of the top speed figures in the field especially at a distance. Prior to that race this horse ran a 106 speed figure over a mile and three sixteenths. He has been mid pack to forwardly placed in his races thus far and looks to have a good chance here.
Another Dud is a runner with longer distance experience as well. He comes off a nice grade two win at a mile and an eighth. It is the race prior to that where he won a listed stakes at a mile and three eighths that has greater bearing here. His speed figure was not that good but that was more than a month ago. He won by daylight do did not need to be super fast. He proved his class and speed with a grade two win last time out. He will come from off the pace so look for a big kick late.
South of Heaven has the pedigree of a runner that should be able to get the distance. He is by High Chaparral out of a Nureyev mare. Lots of stamina there by a sire and dam sire known for long distance runners. His longest races to this point have been a mile and three sixteenths where he has a win and a close up second in a pair of stakes. Last time out he ran at a shorter distance winning a grade one with a 103 speed figure. He has been a mid pack type stalker is his races thus far so look for him forwardly placed early.
Race: 3560.5413 Sydney Sprint – Grade I – $1,000,000
Track:
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old and up
Distance: Five and one half furlongs on the Turf
Breeder’s Bowl Turf Sprint winner Mr. Devious leads this full field of runners in one of the more prestigious turf sprints. Since his Breeder’s Bowl win Mr. Devious has added the grade one Japan Cup Sprint to his resume. He prepped for this race with a nice allowance win at a longer sprint distance. He should have plenty of stamina to make his run for yet another top turf sprint. He has been on the lead or close to the early lead in all of his races. What could get him here is his post position. His speed gives him the ability to over come the post but his race two back he broke from post twelve and faded to fifth in a residency restricted race. He should be on his game here and definitely the one to beat.
Rudy has announced his presence among turf sprinters in his last few races. He comes off a big win in the grade two Castle Point Stakes on a yielding surface. He scored a 112 speed figure and that is his second in his last three races. He has won three of his last four and maybe even better on an off surface and that is what we will have here this weekend. Stalking the early pace is his thing. He will be close up third or fourth early and make his push into the stretch.
Perfect Presence is a five year old thirty five race veteran. He has found one of his best levels of form in his career. Perfect Presence won the grade two Everclear Handicap two races back with a nice 108 speed figure. He followed that up last time out by just missing while earning a 109 speed figure. The off surface is an unknown as far as how he will handle the unsure footing. His stalking style and super good form though are hard to over look. If he handles the surface the veteran could be there in the end.
Paper Jesus has had success on off surfaces and has held his own against the top sprinters. Last time out over an off turf surface he ran second in the grade three Mr Anderson Special. He earned a 108 speed figure and is no stranger to speed figures in this range. Paper Jesus made a solid run in the Breeder’s Bowl Turf Sprint finishing fourth. He might want a little more distance for his closing style. He will likely be toward the back of the field making a run late in the stretch.
Race: 3560.5412 Sydney Mile – Grade I – $1,500,000
Track:
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old and up
Distance: One mile on the Turf
Otto Vasher is the favorite in this race and rightfully so as he has proven to be unbeatable this year. With three races thus far in 2008 Otto Vasher is three for three. He has posted speed figures of 116,116 and 113. He has been lights out with most of his wins coming in longer sprints. Last time out was a run at a mile and he was good in the grade three Tally Ho winning by more than three lengths on an off surface. He is two for two in the off surface making it hard to see Otto Vasher not winning. He likes to come from off the pace so look for him flying late.
Awesome Song has been equally as impressive as Otto Vasher. Awesome Song has won his last two races. His last was in the grade two
Breeder’s Bowl Mile winner Culinary Cutie is also entered in this race. She has faces the boys fairly regularly as she did last time out in the Sand Castle Fee Duty. That race was a furlong further and she still ran a solid race finishing fourth. She has speed and there may not be a whole bunch of speed in this race. When left alone on the lead in the Breeder’s Bowl she made them pay and she could easily do that here. This will be her first run over an off surface so she needs to prove surface does not matter if she wants to be victorious against the boys again.
Mr. Inconspicuous is the only other speed in the race. He has proven he can run well on the lead and over an off turf surface. He could contest the lead with Culinary Cutie or sit just off the pace. His last three races have produced 112,112, and 113 speed figures. He has won one of those and finished third in the other two. Last time out he did take the lead and lost it in the final strides before the wire.
Race: 3560.0115 San Francisco Capitan Handicap – Grade I – $400,000
Track:
Restrictions: All horses, 4 years old and up
Distance: A mile and one half on the Turf
The favorite has never run on the turf and there are four or five others that all seem capable of ending up in the winner’s circle in this race. Andrew John is the favorite despite never stepping foot on the turf. He is well bred, AP Indy X Sadler’s Wells, and has run some fast speed figures on the dirt. Now he steps to the turf for the first time and he could very well prove much the best but asking him to win a grade one in his first turf start.
Crimson Secret comes off a listed stakes win at a distance a furlong shorter than this. He stalked and pounced his way to a 110 speed figure looking pretty impressive. Crimson Secret is a lightly raced five year old so there is room for him to improve. His last was the first big speed figure he has run. He may be ready to take that step up. He will be stalking the early pace so could have first run on the early pace.
Circle of Solace has won six of his last seven races. The one non win was a second in a grade three. Last time out he won the grade two Archibold Primrose with a 105 speed figure. His speed figures though have been better during the streak so he clearly can run fast enough to win. Circle of Solace is a stalker and that could be a crowded place on the race track.
Total Chaos comes off a nice grade two win at a longer distance. He has taken extra time off and that might not be such a good thing. Total Chaos though has made a career of long time between races. He only had eight races last year and this will be just his second of this year. His cut back in distance could prompt him to an improved speed figure. He won with a 106 speed figure last time out and probably will need to pick that up to win here. He could be a mid pack type closer in this race so look for him to make a move in the stretch.
Race: 3560.0416 THE DR. REUBEN GARR MEMORIAL – Grade I – $500,000
Track:
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old and up
Distance: One mile on the Turf
Twenty runners enter to compete for extra prizes in the fifth running of the Dr. Reuben Garr Memorial. Sip of Saki from post eighteen is your morning line favorite. He was runner up in the Breeder’s Bowl Mile and is coming off a solid third place finish in the Sand Castle Fee Duty. He cuts back to his favored distance of a mile and should be ready for a big run. His recent speed figures have been pretty salty consistently running 110+ speed figures. If post position matters here he could be in for a tough trip. Sip of Saki is a mid pack type closer so look for him late.
Red Raven from post sixteen might be one of the more interesting runners in this race. He has the speed and will likely go to the lead and set the pace here. He has set the pace in each of his last four races and has crossed the finish line first in each of his last four races. His last two races have been grade two and a grade one win so there is no questioning his class. There could be a good deal of pace here but up front away from traffic may be the best place to be in this race.
Rock Ballad ran some races last year that would win this race. He comes off an ok effort in the Explosive Bet but that was a distance probably too long for him. Last September he ran a 117 speed figure winning the grade one Mospe Cup and just missed at the Penn Mile. He gets the inside number one post and should be forwardly placed. He should rebound of his last couple of races and could prove to be very tough in the stretch.
Lots of long shots here but I like fifteen to one Judas. He comes off a very nice grade three win where he earned a 114 speed figure. He is a four year old and he looks to be coming into his own. He did win a grade two at this distance as a three year old and after that win struggled until his last race. He could be done with the struggling. Look for Judas stalking the early pace and trying to make his run at the top of the stretch.