San Francisco Capitan Handicap Grade I
San Francisco Capitan Handicap Grade I – $400,000
This is a mile and a half race for all horses 4 year old and up to be contested on the turf. We have lots of 4 year olds improving off every run and a few veterans who can still light fire to the turf. With 13 taking the field this looks to be an interesting race.
1. (27/1) DEVILISH CAT – tsunami4 – (Aldebaran X Storm Cat) This 5 year old horse was 4 starts ago winning 15k claimers. Since being claimed by Tsunami4 he’s been running in allowances. He hasn’t won a race but leads till the end only to be closed upon. His only hit on the board in those races is a 3rd by 8 lengths going a mile. Often times and increase in distance will help a horse like this, but the class jump has me worried. He will face better horses in this race than he has in a long time.
2. (13/1) TOURNIQUET (KY) – simsters6 – (Strong Hope X Affirmed) One of the many 4 year olds in this race comes from post 2. This 4 year old colt has yet to cover the mile and a half distance, but his last few runs have suggested he would be happy with more. He won 3 in a row a few back at 10 furlongs where he seemed really happy. We will see here today if he likes the longer distance. He ran a 12 furlong race a bit back finished 4th but unimpressive. Though it was probably too early to tell if longer will work better.
3. (5/1) CIRCLE OF SOLACE (KY) – weller1 – (Awesome Again X A.P. Indy) This nice 4 year old colt has been ever impressive. As distance gets added, he is doing better and better. Where will he top out? With 2 wins including one in the G2 Archibald Primrose stakes covering 12 furlongs shows he is ready for the jump in class. Very solid horse and a good bet, with his best races coming at the distance he should do well.
4. (7/1) ALUM BAY (IRE) – super20 – (High Chapperal X Kris.s) This 4 year old has only one non route race in his career and is bred for this distance. He has raced once over 14 furlongs where he finished a solid second in the G2 Vermont is for lovers. This makes me wonder if 12 furlongs isn’t enough. He has run well at 12 but has also run poorly. Though like everyone has good days and bad, if he’s on he will be tough competition.
5. (12/1) EMPIRE STARTER (ENG) – snappa – (Rainbow Quest X River of Kings) Another 4 year old colt who loves the distance. With speeds increasing with distance this horse is tougher than his odds give him. Both 13 furlong races resulted in career best 107 speeds. Though only just stakes this horse is talented and looking for more distance. Look for him to make a very nice run here.
6. (9/2) ANDREW JOHN (KY) – sonofaus – (A.P. Indy X Sadler’s Wells) This 4 year old colt only has 7 starts to his name. Well then what makes him the favorite? With only 7 starts he has covered 10, 10.5 furlongs with 110 speeds though on dirt still doest explain it. Well with such talent on dirt connections have decided to give him a start on turf which his breeding says he will excel at. Will the odd makers be right or will this horse live up to his breeding, a lot of questions are posed by this upcoming monster.
7. (7/1) TOTAL CHAOS – benttree – (Rahy X Caro) This is a light grey 5 year old that is ranked number 3 in turf distance. A solid horse with lots of 12 furlongs starts that have proved him a very nice graded runner and with 3 million in earnings he’s already reached star status. A point to make all races over or at 14 furlongs he’s won, it seems to me that 12 is ok, but he is fantastic at longer. Though very hard to find graded races. At 12 he is consistent and a valid and tough competitor.
8. (5/1) CRIMSON SECRET – nightracin – (Kingmambo X Secretariat) This 5 year olds breeding is not what I expected for a turf horse. But his starts confirm a love of turf. With only 15 starts this colt has won over half, Including last time out going his longest ever 11 furlong to win easily with a 110 speed. He could be very dangerous here. That effort proved the distance will be welcomed and consumed.
9. (81/1) DEPUTY GEORGE – tsunami8 – (Carson City X Storm Cat) A 6 year old horse who is not very qualified for this race, having not won a race in almost a year and in has been running in a mixture of claimers, starters and allowances with ok results on dirt. His one recent start has him coming in a distant last in a 9 furlong turf grade 1. I can’t see the result being any different as he obviously was not hurt and has proved in the past he does not like turf.
10. (84/1) SLY SHOT – tsunami36 – (Silver Hawk X The Minstrel) This is the oldest horse in the field at 8 years old and this races long shot. Since being claimed 4 races back he has been run turf long in the Old Man of the Mountain series where his best run had him finishing 8th by 12 lengths with a speed of 82. This will not be enough to get in the money here. I think his stable mate the number 9 should have longer odds as at least this colt likes the surface.
11. (40/1) STOP THE GROOM T – priceless – (Runway Groom X Sadler’s Wells) this is a 6 year old grey mare and the lone female in this race. She looks a lot like my filly who is slowly going out the door. I have also noticed an aversion to graded races, in general she seems to get keyed up and not perform up to par in graded races. Though this is her best distance as of late, her only start on the board was an allowance where she finished 3rd. With 56 starts she is slowing down, she can still hit the board in stakes, but there are too many 100+ speeds going 12 furlongs for her to be competitive here. It’s sad to see in a horse who was so talented, but that is the game.
12. (5/1) SYNCHRONIZATION (KY) – corzak – (Tactical Cat X Caerleon) This 4 year old colt is very talented going 9-10 furlongs. Posting very nice speeds of 116 and 111. He made 2 starts as a 3 year old going 12 furlongs where he got closed on and faded. For a 3 year old that isn’t bad. It’s a good time to test the ground to see if he likes that distance now and if he can post speeds like he does shorter, he will be tough.
13. (6/1) CREDIT ADVANTAGE (ENG) – oasis3 – (Dubai Destination X Giant’s Causeway) This 4 year old has run 2 times going 12 furlongs the first time in the GI Derby De English he finished 6th but that is a very tough races. The second was a stakes where he ran 2nd and closing. He looks to prefer shorter as he has put in many nice race over the 10 furlong range. But he’s looking for more ground and is primed for the race.
With so many nice horses that are improving it’s almost impossible to pick only 4 horses. Here are my guesses, 5, 6, 8, and 12, all very talented horses, and of course you can’t leave out the favorite who will get in there.