MOI LOLITA Looks Ready for Win in Epsom GIII
Nell Gwyn Stakes
Grade III
One Mile on the Firm Turf Course
$150,000
Fillies and mares, 3 years old
Stakes record – 2003 – Parallax, 1:35, SPF 104.320
This is kind of a “make or break” time of year for three year olds. Either they are really going to start finding their lot in life or they may start to be passed by in the stables for younger hopes and dreams. Of course some may not really reach their potential until they are four but many an owner and trainer get an itchy trigger finger if they can’t produce by this time of their three year old campaign and move them one way or another. There are several young ladies here that are kind of straddling the fence in that manner and this could be a big race for them. You never know when you will find the next three year old of the year that is just kicking it into gear so let’s take a look:
1 – AZZA MUSS(AUS) ODDS STABLE WIN% JOCKEY WIN% TOP SPEED EARNINGS RANK 5/2 Sadlier 8.1% J.Diggs 93 – 6 – 11 – 4 – 6% 100.25 $318,891 168
(DESERT KING (IRE) x CAPOTE x LEAR FAN out of YALUCKY MENTUCKY) This plucky young lady recently tried to qualify for the Bluegrass Derby by running in the ALL SAINTS Lock race and finished a commendable sixth against the boys with a 100 SPF. Trainer Sadlier and the Huhtamaki Stables must have felt that she would easily hit the board in her next outing against the girls in the GI CITY OF ANGELS but she stepped back a bit and finished fifth. That may have just been a bounce and she could very easily be really ready here. She has Diggs in the irons and he has struggled this year with low percentages on his mounts. That may not help to get things straightened out in this race.
| 2 – LU LU(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34/1 | BoxerWood | 6.1% | K.Marky | 48 – 6 – 1 – 8 – 13% | 85.42 | $43,595 | N/A |
(MR. GREELEY x EVENT OF THE YEAR x PEINTRE CELEBRE (IRE)) This nicely bred filly won her very first race in six tries last time out and trainer BoxerWood must figure that she is ready for much bigger and better things. She hasn’t run faster than an 85 SPF and she will need to bump that significantly to compete in this race. She has Marky in the saddle and he has looked good this year, that may help. The inside post won’t help her deep closing style much but shouldn’t hurt either. A long shot that has been improving but will have to make a big jump.
| 3 – SECRET REEF(ENG) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/1 | BountyHawk | 10.5% | C.Jericho | 64 – 6 – 6 – 4 – 9% | 88.29 | $63,897 | 821 |
(MOTIVATOR (GB) x MILL REEF x SECRETARIAT) Although this filly has actually run better times at both seven and nine furlongs, she continues to show improvement. She ran in her first Stakes race last time out and finished on the board in third. She will need to step it up a bit here to compete with the favorites. Jockey Jericho has been capable this year and may be able to move her in behind the leaders early with her stalking style. Trainer BountyHawk and EagleHawk3 Stable have high hopes for this young lady and would like to see it start here.
| 4 – SEYMOUR’S DARLING(AUS) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/1 | Endo | 11.7% | D.Aniel | 220 – 28 – 28 – 30 – 13% | 98.08 | $ 254,180 | 60 |
( ENCOSTA DE LAGO (AUS) x ZABEEL(NZ) x DANTSU SEATTLE) Even though this chestnut filly hasn’t won a race since September of her two year old campaign, she has been competitive in a multitude of Stakes and Graded races since then. Trainer Endo and the Hellum Farms Stables have moved her around a bit at different distance trying to find her best length and this may be it. She has run as fast as a 98 SPF but that race was three back. Aniel is holding the reins and he knows how to move these youngsters. She may be one of those ready to make a move for this year. Keep an eye on her.
| 5 – HORSEHOCKEY(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/1 | RMans | 8.0% | W.Cox | 44 – 6 – 5 – 6 – 14% | 92.24 | $ 43,790 | 144 |
( TOCCET x SIR TRISTRAM(IRE) x PETRONE) An interesting name for this filly and an interesting resume as well. After two straight wins including the TOUGH SEATTLE Stakes, she took a huge step back in a GI outing last time out with an 82 SPF and a twelfth place finish. That has to be a worry for trainer RMans and the ONEWorld Stables. She has now had a couple of setbacks like that in her young career and the hope here is that she gets back on track especially with Cox in the saddle with his nice touch with the youngsters. She has a few questions to answer here for the owners.
| 6 – MOI LOLITA(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/1 | CEClaim3 | 14.2% | A.Breadfan | 33 – 4 – 4 – 4 – 12% | 101.87 | $146,025 | 434 |
( AWESOME AGAIN x A.P. INDY x KINGMAMBO) After eight outings on the dirt with nice but not spectacular results, this beautifully bred filly was turned out on the grass two back by trainer CEClaim3 and the Royal Belgian Kempen Farms Stables with immediate results. She had a second and a win in those two Stakes races and had a sizzling 101 SPF last time out. She looks like she is definitely ready for the Graded trail and this could be a big stepping stone for her. She has Breadfan in the saddle and although not a household name, he has had a really nice season. This could be your winning entry.
| 7 – POEM FOR A QUEEN(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/1 | WhiteHall | 14.2% | T.Nugent | 190 – 20 – 25 – 21 – 11% | 90.42 | $152,360 | 35 |
( KINGMAMBO x THEATRICAL(IRE) x DIESIS(GB) out of A POEM FOR BECKY ) After a couple of Stakes win around the beginning of the year, she had a couple of near misses and will be entering her very first Graded race here for trainer WhiteHall and the LilBitFarms Stables. Nicely bred, she looks like she may eventually like to go further but has liked this distance the best so far. Jockey Nugent is up and has looked good this year. All the pieces seem to be in place for a nice run in this race for this team.
| 8 – PAULA CREAMER(JPN) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/1 | TuffGuy | 16.5% | A.Edwards | 156 – 22 – 16 – 12 – 14% | 96.57 | $ 99,355 | 111 |
( STRAVINSKY x A.P. INDY x FURIOUSLY out of FORTY GRAND) Named for the talented and beautiful young golfer on the LPGA tour, this young filly has had much of the same success in her young career. With eight top two finishes in her ten races and five wins, she has been very competitive. She won her first Stakes race last time out and has shown continued improvement. Trainer TuffGuy and the Team DOZA Racing Stables have high hopes for this girl and would love to see a Graded win on her resume. Jockey Edwards is in the irons and is more than capable of bringing that to fruition here.
| 9 – IT’S AFFIRMED(ENG) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/1 | DAFarms | 10.8% | T.Smith | 47 – 7 – 2 – 10 – 15% | 96.75 | $ 268,846 | 115 |
( PIVOTAL(GB) x SADLER’S WELLS x DANEHILL) After a disappointing first race, this young chestnut girl has been just short of spectacular with a five race win streak that included three Stakes wins, one of them Graded. Her past two were near misses but she looks like she can compete anywhere. The only worry here for trainer DAFarms and the BobandGod Stables is the fact that she has never yet run a mile or longer. Hopefully the well respected hands of jockey Smith will help in that transition and she will be able to pace for the extra distance. I have a bit of a worry there though and will wait to see the results.
| 10 – BLUEGRASS RACER(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/1 | JMSStable | 6.9% | R.Harzheim | 260 – 70 – 44 – 40 – 27% | 88.35 | $ 174,915 | 52 |
( BLUEGRASS CAT x NIJINSKY II x ROBERTO) Since her Graded win and a sixth place finish in the Breeders Bowl last year, this filly seemingly forgot how to run until her last outing where she posted an 88 SPF and a close second in an Allowance race. Trainer JMSStable and the Baggio Stables have to wonder if this girl is one of those juvenile flames that burns out at the end of that two year old season and is never heard from again. They have one of the best jocks in the business in Harzheim hoping to turn that around and this would be a perfect spot for that to happen. Many questions could be answered with a win here.
| 11 – FIGHTING CHANCE(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/1 | Bandinni | 11.1% | I.Swanny | 34 – 2 – 1 – 5 – 6% | 85.63 | $ 29,220 | N/A |
( DISTORTED HUMOR x DYNAFORMER x NUREYEV) Quite a leap of faith for trainer Bandinni and the Right At Home Stables to move this young chestnut filly from a maiden win in her sixth start to a Graded race. She is nicely bred and the competition here is not overwhelming though and she at least has a “Fighting Chance”. It would help if the record of jockey Swanny didn’t seem like more of a hindrance than a help though and her one race experience on the grass was backed up by a few more outings. You just never know with these youngsters though. Anything can happen.
Morning Line = 1-8-4-6-7-9
Paz Picks = 6-7-8-9
At first glance, there are many more questions than answers in this race but that is the nature of these young ladies at this time of the season. I like IT’S AFFIRMED to finish fourth although she may finish much better. I would like to see how she does at a mile first. PAULA CREAMER is showing some consistency with her finishes and I think she has enough to finish in the top three. The final pair on my board look to be fairly evenly matched and either could win but I have POEM FOR A QUEEN in second in a near miss. In her only two races on the grass, MOI LOLITA has really impressed and I think that she has enough here to stalk the leaders and win down the stretch.
Good luck to all runners!
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