WHO WILL WIN THIS RACE AND HAVE ROME ALL FOR THEMSELF
While many of the top 3 year olds try to qualify for the Bluegrass Derby be running in the Derby Lock races, some will also be running in The Grade I Win The Crowd And Rome Will Follow Derby in Florida this weekend. Not only will the winner pick up much needed stake points to gain entry to the triple crown races but the 9.5 furlongs on the dirt may also give an indication of how well they will run when they strech out to 1 1/4 miles in Kentucky. We should also not forget that a purse of $500,000 is up for grabs for the 14 three year olds entered in the race.
Let’s take a look at today’s field:
1)THE MORAL(GER)—28/1—home sends this colt out of MONSUN(GER) with a record of 2-1-0-1 and lifetime earnings of $31,796. He is out of the he-mare ZABWELL(NZ) who was 11/73 at the track. This divisional unranked colt races for the corza stables based over at Queensland. This is quite an interesting spot for this horse to be entered considering he has only raced twice so far in his career, both this year, and has raced only on the turf and has raced only against allowance company. He has gone 9.5 furlongs already last time out but his speed rating regressed from his 82 lifetime best when he won his lifetime debut at 8 furlongs. While he was a closer in his previous 2 starts it will be left to the public to decide if the 28/1 odds are a big enough return to gamble that this one will be able to handle both a huge class rise and a surface change all in the same start. The rider for today’s race will be Seguisas (3.2%). PROJECTED SPEED RATING—80.
2)POWER MARCH(KY)—23/1—seacadet sends this colt out of POWERSCOURT(GB) with a record of 5-3-0-0 and lifetime earnings of $82,980. He is out of the mare WEDDING MARCH who was 8/32 at the track and who has 2 foals on record, both winners including this stakes winning colt. This 157th divisional ranked colt races for the Seacadet stables based in Vermont at The Pastures Of Green. After a pair of lackluster turf starts to begin his career he has now gone undefeated since switching to the dirt surfaces. The streak was capped by a 9 furlong stake win in FN last time out where he came up on the right side of a very close photo finish. He posted his best 91 speed rating in that race and hopes to improve with the class rise to Graded stakes today. He is a closer who should sit near the back of the field early and start making his move in the far turn. The rider for today’s race will be Colette (14%). PROJECTED SPEED RATING—95.
3)RUNOTENTERTAINED(KY)—11/1—nofear sends this colt out of BERNARDINI with a record of 3-2-1-0 and lifetime earnings of $107,900. This 695th divisional ranked colt races for the Willyam13 stables based over at the GR Simsters. This colt was a late bloomer who did not start his career until last December and has won both of his allowance starts so far in 2008. He will be making his stakes debut today coming off his allowance win last time out where he ran away in the stretch to win by over 3 lengths posting a lifetime best 92 speed rating over the 9 furlong contest. He is a closer who sits near the back early and like the other entrants in the inside of this field will be spotting some experience to some of the other competitors here today. The rider for today’s race will be Baumann (8.5%). PROJECTED SPEED RATING—95.
4)RIVERBENDER(KY)—8/1—lankajoe2 sends this colt out of BORREGO with a record of 12-5-2-1 and lifetime earnings of $218,760. This 51st divisional ranked colt races for the Chilimac stables based over at the Great Plains Residency. This colt was a 4 time stakes winner as a 2 year old but has yet to find the winner’s circle so far in 4 starts this year. Two fo those races have been 8.5 furlong Graded stake races and while he was rallying in the stretch in both of those he was unable to get up into the top 5 positions to pick up a cheque. His connections hope the extra ground will help him here today and that they can refind his winning form from his 2 year old season. His last race produced a lifetime best 95 speed rating for this closer who will need to avoid traffic problems with the other closers to have a clear lane down the stretch to show his best strides. The rider for today’s race will be Darling (16.3%). PROJECTED SPEED RATING—95.
5)GOOD BAD UGLY(KY)—4/1—super7 sends this colt out of UNBRIDLED’S SONG with a record of 7-3-0-1 and lifetime earnings of $162,500. This 80th divisional ranked colt races for Super’s More Evil Than The Evil Empire stables based over at Del/Penn National. This 2 time stakes winning colt already took a shot at a Derby Prep race in a Grade II LA stake last time out where he could not come up with a big rally and ended up in 4th spot. His 80th ranking makes it very unlikely he will get a shot at the derby although with a win here today anything is possible. He has posted back to back triple digit speed ratings and has probably found a softer field than any of the other derby preps being run this weekend. It will be a crowded field at the back of the pack early in this contest as this colt is another come from behind runner. The one thing unclear here is if he will be able to handle the extra yardage as in both starts over a mile so far in his career he has lost some ground in the late going. The rider for today’s race will be Buchta (15.8%). PROJECTED SPEED RATING—102.
6)NINE O NINE(KY)—8/1—biggray sends this colt out of AWESOME AGAIN with a record of 3-3-0-0 and lifetime earnings of $82,560. This 416th divisional ranked colt races for the Balata stables based at the CR Racers. This colt makes his stakes debut in today’s Grade I race a perfect 3 for 3 in allowance races and enters here off a big 102 speed rating posted in his last start over 8 furlongs. He is one of three that look to want to cut the early fractions today and that could end up producing some quick early quarters to help set up one of the many talented closers in the race. Still, this colt has a knack of running away from the field and getting big leads at the top of the stretch and if he can handle the class rise and do the same today he may just hold off all the latecomers at the wire. A very interesting player in this race as he spots some experience to others but has yet to be beaten. The rider for today’s race will be Wright (12.5%). PROJECTED SPEED RATING—101.
7)LEGENDARY STUD(KY)—12/1—desimster4 sends this colt out of AFLEET ALEX with a record of 7-2-1-1 and lifetime earnings of $74,815. He is out of the he-mare POWDERSNOW(IRE) who was 8/54 at the track. This 546th divisional ranked colt races for the Shamrock stables based over at the GR Simsters. This 2 time allowance winner has yet to hit the board in either of his stake race starts including last time out where he posted his lifetime best 97 speed rating while running a flat 6th in The Grade II Fountain of Ute stakes right here in Florida. While he was trying to mildly rally in that race he did look slightly better in both of his previous starts going 9.5 furlongs so perhaps the return to that distance today is what is needed to give this colt a better chance at a top 3 finish. He is expected to svae ground and sit mid pack early and save his best strides for the far turn and stretch. The rider for today’s race will be Maire (7.9%). PROJECTED SPEED RATING—98.
8)NO MORE CHAVEZ(JPN)—14/1—victoria sends this colt out of MOON BALLAD(IRE) with a record of 7-1-3-1 and lifetime earnings of $45,198. He is out of the mare ARABIAN LASS who was 3/36 at the track and who has 2 foals on record, both winners. This colt lost out in a photo finish last time out in a NW2L mile dirt race and posted a lifetime best 97 speed rating in that contest. He makes his stakes debut today but will be spotting some wins to many of his competitors in the race. He is a closer, who may take advantage of his ability to sit closer to the pace than others hoping it will give him an advantage for the stretch drive. He may need this stake start though to gain some experience in added money events before being considered for a top 3 spot. The rider for today’s race will be Case (10.5%). PROJECTED SPEED RATING—95.
9)UCANTBREAKMYSPIRIT(KY)—6/1—billzpaid2 sends this colt out of BROKEN VOW with a record of 8-3-4-0 and lifetime earnings of $134,280. He is out of the he-mare COOMINYA CUP who was 1/19 at the track. This 140th divisional ranked colt is the 2nd entry from the Willyam13 stable entered in the race. The only race that this colt has not finished in the top 2 was an off track turf try last fall in Deleware. He prepped for this race by wiring a stakes field right here in Florida over 9.5 furlongs posting a big 108 speed rating which if he is able to match again today would likely have him in the winners circle after this contest. He has won 2 in a row and barring any type of bounce of that last one is one of the main contenders here. He will probably not get so loose on the lead in this contest compared to his last race as there are another pair of horses who look to want to try for the lead as well. This is another entry with a good shot today if he can hold off the late closers in what is sure to be an exciting stretch drive. The rider for today’s race will be Gardner (27%). PROJECTED SPEED RATING—104.
10)STONE SAINT(JPN)—18/1—acote3 sends this colt out of ROCK OF GIBRALTAR(IRE) with a record of 6-1-2-1 and lifetime earnings of $32,393. This divisional unranked colt races for the Pilgrim stables based over at GR Simsters. This colt has yet to win except for his MSW victory in his dirt debut and is most likely looking to gain some experience by racing in this Grade I contest today. He has raced in NW2L allowances the last 3 starts and has shown that he may enjoy stretching out today as he has usually been rallying late in his previous races. The big question here is how he will fare with the class rise today. He did post his lifetime best 95 speed rating over 8 furlongs on the dirt last time out. The rider for today’s race will be Jones (10.7%). PROJECTED SPEED RATING—94.
11)GLYRACE(KY)—15/1—gwhisper sends this colt out of HENNESSY with a record of 6-2-0-2 and lifetime earnings of $63,960. HE is out of the mare SURPASSINGLY RACE who was 3/9 at the track and who has 6 foals on record of which 5 are winners. This 547th divisional ranked colt races for the Whisper stables currently based at the EAAA racing residency. Both of this colt’s wins have come against allowance company as he has gone 0/4 in stakes starts so far in his career. He stretched out to 9.5 furlongs last time out in DM and while showing some brief early speed ended up tiring in the lategoing which will leave the question in some minds as to whether or not he will be able to handle the distance today. It does not appear that he will be quick enough to get the lead here so he will probably stock the early pacesetters but in reality will have to pick up his high 80’s speed ratings to the next level to be considered a threat to pick up any of today’s purse. The rider for today’s race will be Barrett (5.8%). PROJECTED SPEED RATING—86.
12)LUCKY’S MASH(ENG)—7/1—ohioracing sends this colt out of WITH APPROVAL with a record of 10-3-2-2 and lifetime earnings of $102,830. He is out of the mare DANDY DELIGHT(GB) who was 0/2 at the track and who has 3 foals on record of which 2 are winners including a Graded stakes winner and this stakes winning colt. This 125th divisional ranked colt races for the MrLucky’s stables that are the managing team over at the Ohio Thoroughbred Racing. This colt has only had 14 days rest coming into this race as he ended up 5th in Dubai in the derby lock prep over 9 furlongs on a sloppy track where he equaled his lifetime best 97 speed rating. He was rallying at the wire and has shown that he runs his best as a late closer which should have him enjoying the extra half furlong in this race today. The big question is whether or not he will be at his best on the short rest from the big race in Dubai. He is a stakes winner but has had to settle for a pair of 5th place finishes in his last 2 contests, both Graded stakes starts. The rider for today’s race will be Lamb (5.7%). PROJECTED SPEED RATING—96.
13)NATALMAN(ENG)—9/1—rohirrim sends this colt out of CACIQUE(FR) with a record of 8-2-3-3 and lifetime earnings of $101,674. He is out of the he-mare RESERVOIR DOG who was 5/25 at the track. This 1126th divisional ranked colt races for the Galileo stables based over at the GR Simsters. This colt has shown he seems to like going long with a win in a 9.5 furlong allowance and just missing picking up his first stakes win when he lost a close photo in an 11 furlong stake in Queensland last time out. The big question for this one in this race today is if he will like the dirt as it will be his debut on that surface in this Grade I contest. The breeding suggests a turf runner and his top 95 speed ratings suggest a turf runner but as they say the only way you are going to find out is by trying. Should this colt fail today there will alway’s be more turf stakes lying ahead, but with most of the top 3 YO contenders choosing to run in the Derby Prep stakes this will probably be the softest Grade I he will find for some time. The rider for today’s race will be Popo (7.1%). PROJECTED SPEED RATING—90.
14)BUDZIG(KY)—16/1—outinfront sends this colt out of BUDDHA with a record of 4-1-0-2 and lifetime earnings of $23,568. He is out of the mare WINZIG(IRE) who was 9/40 at the track and who has 2 foals on record with this colt the only winner to date. This divisional unranked colt races for Out In Front Inc based over in Ireland. After picking up his MSW win in his 3rd lifetime start he moved up to a 9.5 furlongs stake try in N1 last time out where he cut all the early fractions before giving way and settling for 3rd posting a lifebest 99 speed rating. Will he be able to get the lead from the outside post today against a pair of speedsters in this field and if he does will he have anything left for the stretch drive when the many talented closers make their bid for the winners circle. Those are some big questions for this colt in this race. The rider for today’s race will be Faucher (10.7%). PROJECTED SPEED RATING—95.
Well it appears many 3YO’s are taking advantage of this easier field today with most of the divsion’s heavyweights trying to qualify for the Bluegrass Derby via the Derby Lock series but don’t discard any of these in here today. While they may not be able to qualify for the spring classics there is talent here and many of these will be heard from when the season progresses thru the summer and fall seasons. While I have no real choice for this race today I think I am going to gamble that one of the speedsters is going to get loose on the lead and will hold off the latecomers and I will take #6 NINE O NINE because his odds are higher and the fact that he has yet to lose a race so far in his career.
GOOD LUCK AND GOOD RACING
THEO