Full Field of Marathoners for the Grade I Big Turf

Full Field of Marathoners for the Grade I Big Turf

PP1- Expected Yield– 8/1- Super8- B Edwards (2008-WP 15.2%/33% ITM)

Super8 sends this 5yo son of recently deceased sire High Yield out of a Sadler’s Wells mare out for his 34^th start, seven of which will have been with graded company.  Expected Yield had yet to find the winners circle in graded company but does have two top three finishes.  His form has been very good as of late with 4 consecutive 100+ speed figures at 12 furlongs or more.  This horse has shown the ability to close, but has yet to win in that manner.  Super8 needs to have jock B Edwards get him to the front as every stakes win has come in the wire to wire fashion.  While that may seem like an easy task, it will not be as 50% of this field also needs to be on the lead.  This horse certainly belongs in this race, but unfortunately it sets up horribly for him.  He needs the lead to win, but that will be suicide in this race, he has the ability to sit off the pace, and that is the only chance he has with this crowd. 

Predicted Finish: 2^nd, will be flying at the end, and has a shot.

PP2- Funky Robot (IRE)- 13/1- Sjaydan- A G Sheen (2008- WP 5.6%-/ 11% ITM)

Sjaydan sends out a 4yo son of Montjeu (IRE) out of a Pulpit mare into his first fray with graded competition.  Funky Robot can win from the front, but has shown the ability to rate and sit just off of the pace which will serve him well.  The distance is not a problem, but the competition might be.  He has won only once before in a stakes race, and looks like his lack of experience with great competition might hurt him in this spot.  Another chink in his amour is that he has yet to win in races with full fields.  This guy has a shot, but I think that his odds are actually a bit higher than the 13/1 listed.  He is lightly raced and very young for long route turf horses.  I think his best days lay ahead of him, and he has to get his feet wet…grass stained against the best at some point, and why not this week?  I would expect a stalking trip, but he may not like the very hot pace that I expect.

Predicted Finish: 8^th, not sure how the stalking trip is going to work, but has a slight shot.

PP3- Blazing Lights– 11/1- Kjracing- R Bailey (2008- WP 17.2%/ 48% ITM)

Blazing Lights is a 5yo son of Sadler’s Wells out of a Nashua mare in the Kjracing barn.  This is his 10^th battle with graded company of which he has yet to win, but has four top three finishes.  This is on of the true closers in the field which sets him up perfectly in this race.  One of the few horses in the field that wants a suicidal pace, and I am pretty sure he is going to get it.  However this is another one that has fared very poorly in full fields in the past.  I simply do not see any way he does not get up in the end to at least get a piece at the end.  He may not win it, but I would expect an ITM finish at the very least and perhaps his first graded victory.  Not the best closer in the field, but I don’t think he has to be.

Predicted Finish: 5^th, will be moving late, but not enough.

PP4- Lucky’s Cent (IRE)- 7/1- Truly- J Kohlmorgen (2008- WP 10.7%/ 41% ITM)

Lucky’s Cent (IRE) is a 5yo veteran of 32 races with over 400K in winnings.  He is a son of King’s Best (IRE) out of a Niniski mare.  A former claimer, Lucky’s Cent is another horse that must be out front to win.  The difference is that this guy has won in graded competition in this manner.  I simply do not like any of the front runners in this race.  He has not shown the ability to rate in any previous performances, and I don’t think we will see an old horse learn a new trick.  This is a supremely talented horse, but the race just sets up horribly for him.  He has shown in the past that if he is caught towards the end to have the ability to gut it out for a top three finish.  While I do not think he can win, I would say a top three finish is not out of the question.

Predicted Finish: 3^rd, should be out front, but should be able to hang on for some part of it.

PP5- Blackfyre (IRE)- 23/1- Mtk76- M Valley (2008- WP 13.6%/ 27% ITM)

Mtk76 sends out another former claimer that is a 4 yo son of El Prado (IRE) out of a Danehill mare.  This horse is interesting in that he is a deep closer than can come from the clouds, but has only one stakes victory to his name.  The 103 speed figure he put on the board in the Miss’s Devil Special is enough to win this race, but he has not put up anything close to that number in the past.  So for us to take the leap of faith in a win for this guy that would require that he run back to back personal bests.  I simply do not see this happening.  It would not surprise me to see Blackfyre 14 or 15 lengths out of the lead early on, and make a big run at the end, but he has never run with this caliber of competition before.  He might get up to pass some tiring horses down the stretch, but until he proves that he is a graded stakes caliber horse I will have to pass.  Horses simply do not run career races back to back.  I really think that 16 furlongs is his best distance because believe it or not, 14 furlongs might not be quite long enough for this guy.

Predicted Finish: 14^th, needs more room.

PP6- Hope for the Ark (KY)- 9/1- Antagonist- Z Skunk (2008 WP 2.7%/ 27% ITM)

Hope for the Ark (KY) is another 4yo front runner out of the Antagonist stable.  He is a son of Pine Bluff and Blushing Groom (FR) mare.  This horse is the wild card of the bunch as this is his first race on the green stuff in 15 months.  He was unable to break his maiden in four tries in late 06-early 07 on the turf, and only began to really run once he was switched to dirt.  Both his sire and dam sire tend to throw more dirt than turf runners, but it’s not by a large margin with both around 55-45% in favor of dirt.  He shows much more early speed on dirt as he was unable to get the lead in any of his first four starts on turf, but was at or near the lead in almost every dirt race since.  I do like the idea of another try on turf for this guy, but I do not know if a grade I is the place to experiment.  This is a quality horse who’s top speeds are good enough, but I do not think that he will be close to those speeds on turf along with his front running style makes him very much up against it. 

Predicted Finish: 13^th, I don’t think the switch to turf is going to be liked by the horse.

PP7- Northern Gibraltar (IRE)- 10/1- Commbank- N Hartel (2008 WP 7.2%/ 23% ITM)

Imagine that, another front runner in this race.  Commbank sends out a 4yo son of Rock of Gibralter (IRE) out of an A.P. Indy mare.  This will be his 3^rd foray into graded stakes competition, and has not fared well in the previous two.  This horse has won from slightly off the pace in the past, but only in a maiden and claiming race.  This horse has made huge strides as of late considering he was running for a 10K tag only eight months ago.  The item that does perk my interest in this horse is his performances over the last 5 months.  He has been improving a great deal with his top three career speed figures coming in his last four races.  This is the age when the long route turfers start to excel, but once again, this race sets up terribly.  He will be near the front early on, but I think we might see him backing up terribly at the end.  His best days are still ahead of him, and I think we will see a graded victory sometime in the future, just not this race.  Out front is not the place to be this week.

 Predicted Finish: 11^th, up front early, but can’t hang on.

PP8- Cortez (IRE)- 7/1- Slipknot22- A Snappa (2008 WP 13.8%/ 39% ITM)

A well decorated winner of over 3 million dollars and 7 graded races including four grade I victories makes Cortez (IRE) a very viable horse in this race.  He is a 5yo son of High Chaparral (IRE) out of a Conquistado Cielo mare that is making his 36^th start this week.  His chances are greatly enhanced by the fact that he is a closer and his career best speed figures are near the best in this field.  He has not won one however since November of last year and the 35 past races may be starting to take their toll.  12 furlongs appears to be his best distance, but has done 14 furlongs well enough that we can dismiss that angle.  The sets up perfectly for Cortez (IRE) as he will be coming fast at the end, but I don’t know if he gets there.  His last few races say he will be in the picture at the end, but will run out of room.  It has been nine months since he has won at the graded stakes level and I don’t know if he can find that kind of form again with the wear and tear he has taken in 35 career starts.  I would not dismiss him entirely, and I am pretty sure he finishes in the top five, but I don’t quite think he gets there this week. 

Predicted Finish: 6^th, not enough left in the tank.

PP9- Motor City Madman (JPN)- 26/1- Sdmfclaims- I Pegram (2008 WP 16%/ 20% ITM)

Sdmfclaims sends out a 4yo son of Fantastic Light out of a Vice Regent mare.  This guy has one stakes win, and this was with restricted company.  He has shown both the ability to rate and some early speed in past efforts, but I don’t think this is going to be enough this week.  He has a career high speed of 101, but most of his efforts are quite south of this.  If and that is a big if he runs the race of his life he might be able to get a small piece at the end.  I do not however, see any scenario where a win is possible.  He does have the pedigree that deserves a shot on the dirt as he has not tried this surface as of yet.  I think that 14 furlongs will be a problem as he is yet to break a 90 speed figures over 12 furlongs.  This is a lightly raced colt that should get better as he gets older, but his race is a little too much too soon.

Predicted Finish: 10^th, a good horse but in over his head this week.

PP10- New Forge Bargin- 9/1- Sozzled- N Fagan (2008 WP 3.4%/ 14% ITM)

A Fort Wood sired, Quest for Fame mare 5yo scratch homebred is out of the Sozzled stable, and is going out for his 20^th start.  He has yet to win at the stakes level but has a 2^nd place finish last time out with graded company.  Unfortunately this is another horse that really does need the lead and has yet to win sitting off of the pace.  The Big Turf is also the first time this horse has seen 14 furlongs with most of his starts coming between 10 and 12 furlongs.  He has one start at 13 furlongs but finished a well beaten 6^th.  His pedigree would indicate that there is not a race too long as both the Sadler’s Wells line and Rainbow Quest are both represented.  If he can muster the same effort this week as his last race he might have a shot, all be it a slim one.  He is not really capable of rating and he is not the best of the speed horses.  He is a lightly raced 5yo so he might continue to improve, but I think he is up against it this week.  A little softer field with less up front pace would be a better spot for this guy.

Predicted Finish: 12^th, I do not think he is going to care for the distance.

PP11- Footsteps on Grass (GB)- 9/1- Robroe- B Johnson (2008 WP 8.7%/ 26% ITM)

A first crop offspring of Footepsinthesand (GB) and Sharpen Up (GB), this 4yo colt is making his 19^th start this week with 3 of them in graded company.  He has never been in the money in any graded attempts, but those were all much shorter races.  His best efforts have come lately as he has stretched out further than in the past.  Robroe seems to have found this guy’s sweet spot and has put him in a great position for a big win this week.  Certainly not a front runner he will be coming late, but does have some tactical speed that may come in handy.  I really like how he has shown much better results as he has moved up in distance.   I think we can safely cross a line through his past graded attempts as they were in races much shorter than this, and did not allow his pedigree to shine.  Every race that he has been entered in that has greater than 10 furlongs has seen a finish no worse than second, and I don’t think that changes this week.  A slight drop in his last outing sets him up for a big effort this week, and I really like this horse in this race in this pace scenario. 

Predicted Finish: 1^st, the best form of the closers in a suicidal paced race

PP12- Crimson Sky- 6/1- Blackswan- J Cox (2008 WP 12.5%/ 38% ITM)

This is the morning line favorite, and for very good reason.  He has been quite dominant as of late.  He Crimson Sky is a 5yo son of Forty Niner out of a Kingmambo mare that is another horse that has gotten better as the races have gotten longer.  His previous three outings have seen speeds of 107, 107, and 106.  Another one of this race’s closers, expect him to be moving late and I think he has a very legitimate shot at the win.  He deserves to be the favorite, but I think he may not bring his best effort this week with his heavy work load the last month and a half.  This will be three races since March 1, two of which will be grade I.  This might be the bets horse in the race, I think he is a bit over worked and may bounce severely this week.  I think he gets in the money, but I don’t think a win is in the cards. 

Predicted Finish: 4^th, the best horse in the race, but expect a bounce.

PP13- Band of Budas- 11/1- Chop- D Evans (2008 WP 25.7%/ 58% ITM)

A grizzled veteran of 54 previous races finds this 7yo son of Tribal Rule in a pretty tough spot.  An eight time winner of graded stakes has nothing left to prove, but may have left his best days.  Still very competitive, but has not broken 100 since last September.  On the positive side he is going to make one heck of a he-mare.  Another of the closer bunch, but at this point in his career, not the best, but with 3.7 million in earnings he does not need to be.  I would normally talk about his not really being a classic marathoner pedigree, but after 54 races pedigree doesn’t matter much anymore.  He has proven many times over that distance and class are not a problem for him.  A great champion, but he is going to have to find some of the old magic in him if he wants to be competitive in this race.

Predicted Finish: 9^th, his best days are behind I think.

PP14- Shacklebolt- 12/1- Lenny17- G Alder (2008 WP 14%/ 36% ITM)

This 5yo son of Johannesburg and a Kingmambo mare is a versatile horse that can run on both dirt and turf with equal ability.  He has yet to win any graded attempts in eight tries and I don’t know if he can get it done this week either.  He has broken the 100 mark in speed only twice and with a high of 103 might not quite have the ability with this group.  That is no knock on this guy, as this field is loaded.  The last of the closing group, and maybe the worst of that group.  He is how ever coming off of two consecutive stakes victories, and has been improving slightly over the last 8 months.  A very good horse that might be in over his head this week.  Might pick up a check, but I don’t think it will be a top three check. 

Predicted Finish: 7^th, won’t embarrass himself, but needs a career best effort to get in the money.