Another Strong Derby Contender in Arkansas Derby Lock?
Arkansas Juvenile — Derby Lock Prep
Grade II
A mile and one eighth on the Good Dirt Course
$275,000
All Horses, 3 years old
Stakes record – 2003 – Storm Slam Again, 1:48 1/5, SPF 106.450
It is getting down the very last chance to qualify for this years Bluegrass Derby. Between this race and the CORKSCREW Lock Race in Kentucky this weekend, we will add the last two locked spots for that race. Between both of them, there is not one single entry that has a spot locked up through qualifying so there will be a lot of nervous owners and trainers this weekend. We have a couple in this race that have a chance to move up into the qualifying stats with a good showing here led by DOLLIS HILL who has a number 21 rank currently. Throw into the mix that for the second time in this years qualifiers we will probably have an off track as there are lots of thunderstorms and possible tornado warnings up until the weekend. It is supposed to be clear and cool on Saturday but this track will be GOOD at best. You would think that perhaps this close to the Derby that the winner here would basically be an afterthought in the big race anyway. That was certainly not the case last year as PASSING STONE locked up a spot here then missed winning the Derby by a head and went on to be one of the best three year olds of the year. If you go back to 2005, you will find that HATTORI HANZO also one this race and finished fifth in the Derby that year. After our top two horses, the next highest ranking is number 113 and it drops dramatically after that so someone could very easily come in here and steal a spot in the Sims biggest race of the year, especially with an off track. It should be a great race so let’s take a look:
1 – K’S DOLCE VENETO(KY) ODDS OWNER WIN% JOCKEY WIN% TOP SPEED EARNINGS RANK 10/1 Kuovadis 22.2% T.Thomas 141 – 11 – 15 – 13 – 8% 97.20 $ 124,018 222
( FORESTRY x DANZIG x MILL REEF out of K’S DOLCE VITA) On one hand you look at this colt’s record and you are amazed that he has won four of seven and never finished off of the board. Then you see that he has never run faster than a 97 SPF and finished an uninspired second against a short field in his first Stakes outing which was also his first try at two turns. That was last time out and trainer Kuovadis and the Pompeya Thoroughbred Racing Corporation Stables are hoping that last race works out as a nice prep and he is ready to really take off here. He has never run on an off track and has Thomas in the saddle who has ridden like all of his mounts were running in the mud this year. All in all, the best hope that the Hispano Parlante Rez has to cheer here is that he likes to take the lead early and he has an excellent post for that.
| 2 – ROCK AND FIRE(KY) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/1 | WillYam37 | 15.5% | T.J.Johnson | 95 100 – 3 – 11 – 13 – 3% | 92.22 | $ 80,589 | 273 |
( ROCK HARD TEN x HOLD THAT TIGER x A.P. INDY out of CLOUDED VISION) This is one of those long shots that could come in here and steal a spot in the Derby. With a 273 ranking and only two wins in seven starts and a fairly dismal showing in his only Graded outing, you wouldn’t think that to be the case. The big thing however, is that his very best race was on an off track where he finished second in the MINE DEVASTATION BONANZA Stakes with a 90 SPF. He’s a stalker that could benefit from the inside post and has a few things set up for him and trainer and owner WillYam37. One thing that appears to not be set up is jockey T.J.Johnson who has been more of an anchor to his mounts than a guide. He will need to ride his best race to help out this colt in his quest for the Derby.
| 3 – GRAND(KY) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46/1 | NeedsRest | 5.0% | G.Ramsey | 38 – 1 – 3 – 0 – 3% | 85.27 | $ 35,090 | N/A |
(GRAND SLAM x ARAMUS x CHEROKEE RUN) The longest shot in the race had a fairly nice two year old season but just hasn’t seemed to be able to get it together for trainer NeedsRest and the And616 Stables. They have tried him at different distances and on both clay and grass but he just hasn’t fired at all this year. Compounding the problem is jockey Ramsey who has been having his own problems this year with only one win in 38 races this year. It appears that everything would have to work out just right for a win for this team.
| 4 – SNATCH IT BACK(KY) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/1 | ScootBoy | 19.1% | X.Jones | 81 – 8 – 2 – 7 – 10% | 101.29 | $ 142,765 | 120 |
( NEWFOUNDLAND x LEGAL PROSPECTOR x GREEK ANSWER out of ENOUGH SNATCH) Three races back trainer and owner ScootBoy and the EAAA Rez were all smiles about this big colt. He had just come from way back in an EAAA Restricted and won with a sizzling 101 SPF. He appeared to really be on his way to qualifying and challenging in the Derby. Since then he had a quality fourth in the the Vermont GI but with a much lower SPF and then really stumbled around last time out with a 12th in the FELIPE ALOU GII. He appears to like this distance a bit more and they are hoping that he will shake out of his funk and put together another big race. This will be his first race on an off track and he has capable jockey Jones in the leather. It is set up for a big race, let’s see if he can do it.
| 5 – AURELIAN(KY)) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/1 | YesGuy | 12.3% | P.Reneee | 38 – 1 – 2 – 2 – 3% | 92.74 | $ 83,962 | 451 |
( MINESHAFT x AWESOME AGAIN x UNBRIDLED out of GRAND BOND) Trainer and owner YesGuy has brought this colt along slowly and he has consistently improved before stepping back a bit last time out. He has a nice record of hitting the board but has only one Stakes outing with disappointing results. He has a couple of other things going against him as well here. He has never run this far and jockey Renee seems as if he could run faster than he has been guiding his mounts this year. Anything can happen but it doesn’t look promising for this team.
| 6 – TAP DANCES(KY)) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/1 | GG | 16.0% | C.Marts | 123 – 16 – 11 – 20 – 13% | 104.08 | $ 130,326 | 113 |
( KINGMAMBO x DANZIG x NIJINSKY II out of SWINGTIME SAL) The GR Simsters Rez has been spouting about their Stables success in locking up spots in the Derby so far this year with five Locks already in the big race. This is another that could TAP DANCE his way into that race. Top trainer GG of the Topicount Stables has really done an excellent job of bringing this chestnut colt along and he is on a three race win streak including a sizzling 104 SPF last time out at nine panels while winning the MAMMOTH LIMO Special Stakes. He has one race on an off track and although he finished a close second, it was his maiden on the grass so I don’t know how that will translate here. They have jockey Marts holding the reins and he his more than capable of getting this colt near the lead early and giving him a chance in the stretch.
| 7 – INVINCIBLE HAACK(IRE) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/1 | HaackOtto | 20.9% | V.Cabaniss | 61 – 2 – 3 – 8 – 3% | 95.82 | $ 84,350 | 266 |
( INVINCIBLE SPIRIT (IRE) x AFFIRMED x GRAUSTARK out of STAR HEATHER) This lightly raced chestnut colt running under the Venezuelan colors of the Otto Haack Stable and the Hispano Parlante Rez has never finished off the board in his five races. He has one Stakes win in a restricted short field of four but has run well for trainer HaackOtto. His top speed of 95 SPF will definitely need to be bumped up here to compete and it may be tough to get that out of him as he carries jockey Cabaniss who has been more of an anchor than a rider for his mounts this year. It will be the first off track outing for this colt who will really need to mature in a hurry to compete in this race.
| 8 – ZARAKI(IRE)) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/1 | Lurch | 12.2% | S.Proudfoot | 125 – 11 – 5 – 13 – 9% | 103.90 | $ 129,200 | 138 |
( NIGHT SHIFT x FAST PLAY x SECRETARIAT out of AWAY UNTIL FISH) Trainer Lurch has tried this colt from both the front and closing from the rear and his best races always seem to be from the front end. He also seems to like the rain as he won his only off track outing in the IRISH FUTURITY Restricted Stakes. He is running under the black and red colors of the Scandinavian Division of the Ace Stables from the Ireland Residency. He has two Stakes wins including the DARE TO SAY GO Stakes two back with a nice 103 SPF. Proudfoot is in the irons and he has been capable if unspectacular this year. This team could be a player if he takes to the off track and brings that big speed to the front early.
| 9 – QWIKVETT EXPRESS(KY) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/1 | QwikVett | 9.6% | S.Lumpkin | 38 – 3 – 1 – 2 – 8% | 92.99 | $ 98,037 | 289 |
( POINT GIVEN x WOODMAN x SUMMER SQUALL out of KEEGALEON) This solidly bred colt had a two race win streak in his first two on the dirt before tiring badly at nine and a half furlongs last time out to fade to fourth. Now trainer and owner QuikVett will have to hope that the colt can do nine furlongs and keep up the pace. Jockey Lumpkin may help in that regard as he is at least capable. The Stable is a member of the Northwest Racing Circuit Rez and they would love to see him get into the Derby. He has five wins already but has never run on an off track. Perhaps he will take to it after his ten races on the turf and that would help here.
| 10 – METEORITE(IRE) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/1 | Given3 | 17.2% | A.Arthur | 207 – 23 – 29 – 19 – 11% | 97.85 | $ 101,162 | 79 |
( GALILEO (IRE) x DEPUTY MINISTER x MACHIAVELLIAN) Since turning to the dirt late last year, this colt has run off three wins in five races including a Stakes win in his last outing. His turf experience may help on the off track as this will be his first outing in mud. Trainer and owner Given3 has seen this colt close from way back and will need to run his best race to date to compete here. Jockey Arthur is holding the reins and has had a very solid year. This is one of those colts in the race that definitely has a chance if he takes to the off track. He has the experience, the trainer, the jockey and the speed to compete but it need to all come together.
| 11 – STYLISH(MD) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32/1 | KindOne5 | 17.3% | T.Quila | 56 – 4 – 4 – 3 – 7% | 86.53 | $ 72,395 | 408 |
( OUTFLANKER x LION HEARTED x DIAMOND PROSPECT out of JEWELOFTHEDESERT) In his thirteen races, this smallish brown colt has only hit the board five times. The good news however for trainer and owner KindOne5 is that of those in the money, four of the five were on off tracks. This guy is kind of one of those off track specialists and this race may be made for him. His quickest race to date is an 86 SPF so the race will have to have a pedestrian pace to compete here. Jockey T.Quila hasn’t had a stellar season either and it would be a Cinderella story to see these two get this colt to the Derby.
| 12 – PARADISE COVE(KY) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/1 | LawyerRon | 14.6% | F.Cherry | 62 – 4 – 4 – 4 – 6% | 98.91 | $ 67,262 | 314 |
( A.P. INDY x SEEKING THE GOLD x PLEASANT COLONY) A few questions with this colt from the Right at Home Stables. He seemed to look a bit better as a two year old than he has this year. He seems to like the sprints a bit better than the classic distances and some doubt that he can go nine panels. One thing that is sure is that his highest SPF to date was on an off track and that may benefit him here. Trainer LawyerRon would love to show all of the buddies at the Northwest Racing Circuit that this colt can make the Derby. Jockey Cherry is up and has been having a dismal season with barely a blip on the radar stats-wise. The outside post won’t help the front running style of this colt but if they can get down inside and take to the off track, they could make some noise here.
| 13 – DOLLIS HILL(JPN) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/1 | Liam | 12.9% | V.Jennings | 248 – 64 – 50 – 29 – 26% | 100.48 | $ 386,740 | 21 |
( AFLEET x DEPUTY MINISTER x STORM CAT out of RED DUHLERT) The top rated colt in this race, he won his first Graded Stakes last time out with a solid 100 SPF. He has had some success as well on an off track and may be ready to really step it up for trainer Liam and the New Sledge Lodge Stables. With four Stakes wins and nearly $400k in earnings, this colt should be the one to beat here but his biggest problem has been consistency. He has been a bit up and down during his career. He has the best jock at the track in the leather and that should definitely steady him. He runs best from the back and he is in between his biggest competitors on the outside in the race so it could be time to really put up a big effort for this colt.
| 14 – FALL OUT BOY(ENG) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/1 | EddieLegg | 17.1% | A.Weldon | 237 – 45 – 41 – 33 – 19% | 100.51 | $ 246,930 | 31 |
(PIVOTAL(GB) x KRIS S. x DANEHILL DANCER (IRE)) In his seven races on dirt, he has four wins including the GIII GIANT SLAYER Classic on an off track with a quick 99 SPF. He may be a Giant Slayer of his own here for trainer EddieLegg and the Eddie Empire Stables. The Alpine Turf Club would love to see one of their own get a mount into the Derby and this colt looks like he has a real chance in that regard. Jockey Weldon is up and has been red hot this year and could be just what the colt needs to push from the back with his deep closing style. This race looks to be set up just right for this team to compete for the victory.
Morning Line = 13-14-12-4-6
Paz Picks = 14-13-12-6-2
I’ve really loved covering the Lock races as there are so many possibilities that you are looking at future greatness in many of these youngsters. I think that ROCK AND FIRE has a chance here to do some damage on the off track but may not have enough to unseat the favorites. I like TAP DANCES to finish fourth even though he could do much better here and even give the Simsters another Rez entry. I’m afraid it may be tough to bounce back from that mud race last time out. Too many questions for me to place PARADISE COVE much higher than third but he definitely has some talent. My final two should be going back an forth with each other throughout the race. I think that coming out of the last turn they will be close and should be neck and neck down the stretch. I have DOLLIS HILL at second on my card which may get him into the Derby on points anyway. That leaves FALL OUT BOY to flash his off track experience to win the race and lock up a spot in the Derby that he probably otherwise wouldn’t have earned with his current 31 ranking. It should be a blast and I can hardly wait.
Good luck to all runners!
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